Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Variation: Case Study of the Upstream of Minjiang River, China
This article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYThis article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 9
Abstract
Quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff variation has drawn considerable concern. In this study, a modified method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity (modified SCRAQ) has been proposed to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff variation. The variation characteristics of hydrometeorological series were detected in the upstream of Minjiang River (UMR), China, during 1960–2012 using the Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff variation in the UMR were estimated using the double mass curve method and modified SCRAQ method. The results showed that annual precipitation of the UMR had an insignificant decreasing trend, annual mean temperature presented a significant increasing trend, and annual runoff exhibited a significant decreasing trend. The years of 1969 and 1995 are taken as representative abrupt change points; the total study period was divided into the natural period (1960–1969) and change period (1970–2012), which includes 1970–1995 and 1996–2012. Precipitation caused the decrease of runoff except for the change period of 1970–1995; mean temperature led to the increase of runoff in each change period. Furthermore, runoff in the UMR was more sensitive to variation of mean temperature than that of precipitation. Under their combined influence, climate change resulted in the increase of runoff; human activities (e.g., agriculture irrigation, deforestation and afforestation, and urban water supply, as well as the construction of large reservoirs and dams) caused the runoff reduction. Overall, the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff varied differently in the UMR, and human activities were the main driving factor leading to runoff variation. The results in this study can provide necessary information for water resources management in the UMR.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
The data used in the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
This research has been supported by National Nature Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51679155 and 41830863) and National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFA0601501). The editors and anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged for providing valuable comments on the earlier version of this paper.
References
Ahn, K.-H., and V. Merwade. 2014. “Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on streamflow.” J. Hydrol. 515 (Jul): 257–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.062.
Bao, W., and C. Wang. 2000. “Degradation mechanism of mountain ecosystem at the dry valley in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.” [In Chinese.] J. Mt. Sci. 18 (1): 57–62. https://doi.org/10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.2000.01.011.
Birsan, M. V., P. Molnar, P. Burlando, and M. Pfaundler. 2005. “Streamflow trends in Switzerland.” J. Hydrol. 314 (1–4): 312–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.008.
Dey, P., and A. Mishra. 2017. “Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions.” J. Hydrol. 548 (May): 278–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014.
Do, H. X., S. Westra, and M. Leonard. 2017. “A global-scale investigation of trends in annual maximum streamflow.” J. Hydrol. 552 (Sep): 28–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.06.015.
Fan, H. 2002. “A study on 50a land use and cover change of watershed of Upper Minjiang River.” [In Chinese.] J. Mt. Sci. 20 (1): 64–69. https://doi.org/10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.2002.01.011.
Fan, J. L., B. Q. Chen, L. F. Wu, F. C. Zhang, X. H. Lu, and Y. Z. Xiang. 2018. “Evaluation and development of temperature-based empirical models for estimating daily global solar radiation in humid regions.” Energy 144 (Feb): 903–914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.091.
Fenta, A. A., H. Yasuda, K. Shimizu, and N. Haregeweyn. 2017. “Response of streamflow to climate variability and changes in human activities in the semiarid highlands of northern Ethiopia.” Reg. Environ. Change 17 (4): 1229–1240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1103-y.
Hao, X., Y. Chen, C. Xu, and W. Li. 2008. “Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the last fifty years.” Water Resour. Manage. 22 (9): 1159–1171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4.
Hou, J., A. Ye, J. You, F. Ma, and Q. Duan. 2018. “An estimate of human and natural contributions to changes in water resources in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.” Sci. Total Environ. 635 (Sep): 901–912. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.163.
Hu, C., Y. Xu, L. Han, L. Yang, and G. Xu. 2016. “Long-term trends in daily precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta region during 1960–2012, eastern China.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 125 (1–2): 131–147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1493-z.
Huang, S. Z., D. F. Liu, Q. Huang, and Y. T. Chen. 2016. “Contributions of climate variability and human activities to the variation of runoff in the Wei River Basin, China.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 61 (6): 1026–1039. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.959955.
Huang, X., J. Zhao, W. Li, and H. Jiang. 2014. “Impact of climatic change on streamflow in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, China.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 59 (1): 154–164. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.853878.
Huo, Z., S. Feng, S. Kang, W. Li, and S. Chen. 2008. “Effect of climate changes and water-related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang River Basin in arid north-west China.” Hydrol. Processes 22 (16): 3155–3167. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6900.
Jiang, C., L. Xiong, D. Wang, P. Liu, S. Guo, and C.-Y. Xu. 2015. “Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters.” J. Hydrol. 522 (Mar): 326–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.060.
Kendall, M. G. 1975. Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Graffin.
Kong, D., C. Miao, J. Wu, and Q. Duan. 2016. “Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on net runoff in the Yellow River Basin from 1951 to 2012.” Ecol. Eng. 91 (Jun): 566–573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.02.023.
Labat, D., Y. Godderis, J. L. Probst, and J. L. Guyot. 2004. “Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming.” Adv. Water Resour. 27 (6): 631–642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02.020.
Li, B. F., Y. N. Chen, Z. S. Chen, and W. H. Li. 2012a. “Trends in runoff versus climate change in typical rivers in the arid region of northwest China.” Quat. Int. 282 (Dec): 87–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.06.005.
Li, D. L., W. S. Wang, S. X. Hu, and Y. Q. Li. 2012b. “Characteristics of annual runoff variation in major rivers of China.” Hydrol. Process. 26 (19): 2866–2877. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8361.
Li, L. J., L. Zhang, H. Wang, J. Wang, J. W. Yang, D. J. Jiang, J. Y. Li, and D. Y. Qin. 2007. “Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River Basin in China.” Hydrol. Process. 21 (25): 3485–3491. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6485.
Li, M. 2014. Cumulative influence of cascade hydropower development on runoff in upper reaches of Minjiang River. [In Chinese.] Chengdu, China: Chengdu Univ. of Technology.
Li, S. S., L. Zhang, Y. Du, Y. H. Zhuang, and C. C. Yan. 2020. “Anthropogenic impacts on streamflow-compensated climate change effect in the Hanjiang River Basin, China.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 25 (1): 04019058. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001876.
Liang, S., W. Wang, and D. Zhang. 2018. “Characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation variation in the upstream of Minjiang River, southwestern China.” Adv. Meteorol. 2018: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/1362708.
Liu, J., Z. Zhou, Z. Yan, J. Gong, Y. Jia, C.-Y. Xu, and H. Wang. 2019. “A new approach to separating the impacts of climate change and multiple human activities on water cycle processes based on a distributed hydrological model.” J. Hydrol. 578 (Nov): 124096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124096.
Liu, Y. Y., X. N. Zhang, D. Z. Xia, J. S. You, Y. S. Rong, and M. Bakir. 2013. “Impacts of land-use and climate changes on hydrologic processes in the Qingyi River watershed, China.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 18 (11): 1495–1512. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000485.
Liu, Z., Z. Yao, H. Huang, S. Wu, and G. Liu. 2014. “Land use and climate changes and their impacts on runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China.” Land Degrad. Dev. 25 (3): 203–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1159.
Ma, Z., S. Kang, L. Zhang, L. Tong, and X. Su. 2008. “Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China.” J. Hydrol. 352 (3–4): 239–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.022.
Mann, H. B. 1945. “Nonparametric test against trend.” Econometrica 13 (3): 245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187.
Marti, P., M. Zarzo, K. Vanderlinden, and J. Girona. 2015. “Parametric expressions for the adjusted Hargreaves coefficient in eastern Spain.” J. Hydrol. 529 (Oct): 1713–1724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.054.
Milly, P. C. D., K. A. Dunne, and A. V. Vecchia. 2005. “Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.” Nature 438 (7066): 347–350. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04312.
Pan, Z., X. Ruan, M. Qian, J. Hua, N. Shan, and J. Xu. 2018. “Spatio-temporal variability of streamflow in the Huaihe River Basin, China: Climate variability or human activities?” Hydrol. Res. 49 (1): 177–193. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.155.
Patterson, L. A., B. Lutz, and M. W. Doyle. 2013. “Climate and direct human contributions to changes in mean annual streamflow in the South Atlantic, USA.” Water Resour. Res. 49 (11): 7278–7291. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014618.
Peng, L., Y. Li, and H. Feng. 2017. “The best alternative for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration in different sub-regions of mainland China.” Sci. Rep. 7 (1): 5458. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05660-y.
Ryberg, K. R., W. Lin, and A. V. Vecchia. 2014. “Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 19 (1): 148–158. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000775.
Saidi, H., C. Dresti, D. Manca, and M. Ciampittiello. 2018. “Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the streamflow of an Alpine river.” Environ. Earth Sci. 77 (19): 690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7870-z.
Shahid, M., Z. T. Cong, and D. W. Zhang. 2018. “Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A case study of the Soan River Basin, Pakistan.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 134 (1–2): 205–219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2269-4.
Tan, Q. 2016. Land use type evolution research in the upper reaches of Minjiang River based on GIS and RS. [In Chinese.] Chengdu, China: Sichuan Normal Univ.
Wang, D., and M. Hejazi. 2011. “Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States.” Water Resour. Res. 47 (10): W00J12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010283.
Wang, G., J. Xia, and J. Chen. 2009. “Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River Basin in northern China.” Water Resour. Res. 45 (7): W00A11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007wr006768.
Wang, S., Y. Yan, M. Yan, and X. Zhao. 2012. “Quantitative estimation of the impact of precipitation and human activities on runoff change of the Huangfuchuan River Basin.” J. Geogr. Sci. 22 (5): 906–918. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0972-8.
Xu, Y., S. Wang, X. Bai, D. Shu, and Y. Tian. 2018. “Runoff response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, SW China.” PLoS One 13 (3): e0193073. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193073.
Yang, L. S., Q. Feng, Z. L. Yin, X. H. Wen, J. H. Si, C. B. Li, and R. C. Deo. 2017. “Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River, northwest China.” Hydrol. Process. 31 (5): 1100–1112. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11098.
Yang, Z., Y. Chang, Y. Hu, M. Liu, Q. Wen, and G. Zhang. 2007. “Landscape change and its driving forces of dry valley in upper reaches of Minjiang River.” [In Chinese.] Chin. J. Ecol. 26 (6): 869–874. https://doi.org/10.13292/j.1000-4890.2007.0158.
Ye, X. C., Q. Zhang, J. Liu, X. H. Li, and C. Y. Xu. 2013. “Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment, China.” J. Hydrol. 494 (Jun): 83–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.036.
Zeng, S. D., J. Xia, and H. Du. 2014. “Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River Basin.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 28 (2): 401–413. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0760-8.
Zhan, C. S., S. S. Jiang, F. B. Sun, Y. W. Jia, C. W. Niu, and W. F. Yue. 2014. “Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River Basin, China.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (8): 3069–3077. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3069-2014.
Zhang, A., C. Zhang, G. Fu, B. Wang, Z. Bao, and H. Zheng. 2012a. “Assessments of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, northeast China.” Water Resour. Manage. 26 (8): 2199–2217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0010-8.
Zhang, L., Z. T. Nan, W. Z. Wang, D. Ren, Y. B. Zhao, and X. B. Wu. 2019. “Separating climate change and human contributions to variations in streamflow and its components using eight time-trend methods.” Hydrol. Processes 33 (3): 383–394. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13331.
Zhang, M., X. Wei, P. Sun, and S. Liu. 2012b. “The effect of forest harvesting and climatic variability on runoff in a large watershed: The case study in the Upper Minjiang River of Yangtze River Basin.” J. Hydrol. 464–465 (Sep): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.050.
Zhang, X. B., K. D. Harvey, W. D. Hogg, and T. R. Yuzyk. 2001. “Trends in Canadian streamflow.” Water Resour. Res. 37 (4): 987–998. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900357.
Zhang, Z. D., L. W. Wan, C. W. Dong, Y. C. Xie, C. X. Yang, J. Yang, and Y. Li. 2018. “Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Wuhua River Basin.” Sustainability-Basel 10 (10): 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103405.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 9 • September 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 21, 2019
Accepted: Apr 21, 2020
Published online: Jun 25, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 25, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.