Coincidence Risk Analysis of Floods Using Multivariate Copulas: Case Study of Jinsha River and Min River, China
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Volume 24, Issue 2
Abstract
The coincidence of floods on a mainstem and its tributaries may cause significant flood damage downstream of the confluence. In this study, the coincidence risks of annual maximum (AM) floods on Jinsha River and Min River, China, were analyzed using multivariate copulas based on both systematic records and available historical information. Archimedean and elliptical copulas were selected to establish the joint distributions of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates of the two rivers. The coincidence probabilities of AM floods were investigated and compared with monthly maximum floods. The results show that the coincidence probabilities of AM flood magnitudes and occurrence dates are much less than those of monthly maximum floods. Higher coincidence probabilities of AM flood occurrence dates occur in the period from mid-June to early September with three coincidence peaks, while there is only one coincidence peak in each month for monthly maximum floods. Ignoring historical flood information would underestimate the coincidence probabilities of flood magnitudes. The results can provide decision support for cascade reservoir operation on Jinsha River and flood mitigation downstream.
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Acknowledgments
This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51679088) and the Project of National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0402308 and 2016YFC0402502). The authors are very grateful to the editors and anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions greatly improved the quality of this paper.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 2 • February 2019
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©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Feb 19, 2018
Accepted: Aug 20, 2018
Published online: Nov 30, 2018
Published in print: Feb 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Apr 30, 2019
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