A Simple Method for Predicting Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides
This article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYThis article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 148, Issue 10
Abstract
A method of practical interest is presented in this study for predicting shallow landslide triggering due to expected rainfall scenarios. The proposed approach is based on some closed-form expressions derived using physically-based models and requires a limited number of material parameters obtained from conventional tests. Two typical triggering mechanisms are considered: in the first case, a landslide is caused by a reduction in suction due to rain infiltration in unsaturated soils; in the second one, a slope failure occurs due to the formation of a water table with consequent generation of positive pore water pressures within the slope. A simple criterion is also provided to establish which triggering mechanism occurs. For each considered mechanism, a rainfall threshold curve is derived, which is formally similar to several empirical intensity-duration relationships proposed in the literature for predicting the occurrence of shallow landslides. However, unlike these empirical relationships, the present threshold curves explicitly depend on basic parameters such as slope geometry, soil properties, and pore water pressure existing at the depth of the potential slip surface before the rainfall. The proposed approach is also applied to well-documented case studies to assess its predictive capacity.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research was partially supported by “Fondo Sociale Europeo REACT-EU Programma Operativo Nazionale (PON) Ricerca e Innovazione 2014–2020.”
References
Aleotti, P. 2004. “A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures.” Eng. Geol. 73 (3–4): 247–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007.
Askarinejad, A., D. Akca, and S. M. Springman. 2018. “Precursors of instability in a natural slope due to rainfall: A full-scale experiment.” Landslides 15 (9): 1745–1759. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-0994-0.
Askarinejad, A., F. Casini, P. Bischof, A. Beck, and S. M. Springman. 2012. “Rainfall induced instabilities: A field experiment on a silty sand slope in northern Switzerland.” Ital. Geotech. J. 46 (3): 50–71.
Baum, R. L., and J. W. Godt. 2010. “Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA.” Landslides 7 (3): 259–272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0177-0.
Bogaard, T., and R. Greco. 2018. “Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: Proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (1): 31–39. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018.
Bordoni, M., C. Meisina, R. Valentino, N. Lu, M. Bittelli, and S. Chersich. 2015. “Hydrological factors affecting rainfall-induced shallow landslides: From the field monitoring to a simplified slope stability analysis.” Eng. Geol. 193 (Jul): 19–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.04.006.
Caine, N. 1980. “The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows.” Geogr. Ann. Ser. A Phys. Geogr. 62 (1–2): 23–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.1980.11879996.
Carslaw, H. S., and J. C. Jaeger. 1959. Conduction of heat in solids. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Cascini, L., S. Cuomo, M. Pastor, and G. Sorbino. 2010. “Modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides of the flow-types.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 136 (1): 85–98. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000182.
Casini, F., C. Jommi, and S. M. Springman. 2010. “A laboratory investigation on an undisturbed silty sand from a slope prone to landsliding.” Granular Matter 12 (3): 303–316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10035-010-0182-y.
Cho, S. E. 2017. “Prediction of shallow landslide by surficial stability analysis considering rainfall infiltration.” Eng. Geol. 231 (Dec): 126–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.10.018.
Conte, E., and A. Troncone. 2011. “Analytical method for predicting the mobility of slow-moving landslides owing to groundwater fluctuations.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 137 (8): 777–784. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000486.
Conte, E., and A. Troncone. 2012a. “A method for the analysis of soil slips triggered by rainfall.” Géotechnique 62 (3): 187–192. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.8.P.075.
Conte, E., and A. Troncone. 2012b. “Simplified approach for the analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 138 (3): 398–406. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000577.
Conte, E., and A. Troncone. 2012c. “Stability analysis of infinite clayey slopes subjected to pore pressure changes.” Géotechnique 62 (1): 87–91. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.10.T.002.
Conte, E., and A. Troncone. 2018. “A performance-based method for the design of drainage trenches used to stabilize slopes.” Eng. Geol. 239 (May): 158–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.03.017.
Crosta, G. B. 1998. “Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: An aid to landslide hazard evaluation.” Environ. Geol. 35 (2–3): 131–145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002540050300.
Crosta, G. B. 2004. “Introduction to the special issue on rainfall-triggered landslides and debris flows.” Eng. Geol. 3 (73): 191–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.004.
Elia, G., et al. 2017. “Numerical modelling of slope–vegetation–atmosphere interaction: An overview.” Q. J. Eng. Geol. Hydrogeol. 50 (3): 249–270. https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2016-079.
Fredlund, D. G. 2000. “The 1999 RM Hardy Lecture: The implementation of unsaturated soil mechanics into geotechnical engineering.” Can. Geotech. J. 37 (5): 963–986. https://doi.org/10.1139/t00-026.
Fredlund, D. G., and H. Rahardjo. 1993. Soil mechanics for unsaturated soils. New York: Wiley.
Gardner, W. R. 1958. “Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow equation with application to evaporation from a water table.” Soil Sci. 85 (4): 228–232. https://doi.org/10.1097/00010694-195804000-00006.
Godt, J. W., R. L. Baum, and N. Lu. 2009. “Landsliding in partially saturated materials.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (2): L02403. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035996.
Godt, J. W., and J. P. McKenna. 2008. “Numerical modeling of rainfall thresholds for shallow landsliding in the Seattle area.” In Vol. XX of Landslides and engineering geology of the Seattle, Washington, area. Geological Society of America reviews in engineering geology, edited by R. L. Baum, J. W. Godt, and L. M. Highland, 121–135. Boulder, CO: Geological Society of America.
Guzzetti, F., S. Peruccacci, M. Rossi, and C. P. Stark. 2007. “Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe.” Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 98 (3): 239–267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7.
Hungr, O., S. Leroueil, and L. Picarelli. 2014. “The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update.” Landslides 11 (2): 167–194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y.
Iverson, R. M. 2000. “Landslide triggering by rain infiltration.” Water Resour. Res. 36 (7): 1897–1910. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090.
Keefer, D. K., et al. 1987. “Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall.” Science 238 (4829): 921–925. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.238.4829.921.
Kelln, C. J., L. Barbour, and C. Qualizza. 2009. “Fracture-dominated subsurface flow and transport in a sloping reclamation cover.” Vadose Zone J. 8 (1): 96–107. https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2008.0064.
Khire, M. V., C. H. Benson, and P. J. Bosscher. 2000. “Capillary barriers: Design variables and water balance.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 126 (8): 695–708. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2000)126:8(695).
Leroueil, S. 2001. “Natural slopes and cuts: Movement and failure mechanisms.” Géotechnique 51 (3): 197–243. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.2001.51.3.197.
Lizarraga, J. J., P. Frattini, G. B. Crosta, and G. Buscarnera. 2017. “Regional-scale modelling of shallow landslides with different initiation mechanisms: Sliding versus liquefaction.” Eng. Geol. 228 (Oct): 346–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.08.023.
Lu, N., and W. J. Likos. 2006. “Suction stress characteristic curve for unsaturated soil.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 132 (2): 131–142. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2006)132:2(131).
Mancarella, D., A. Doglioni, and V. Simeone. 2012. “On capillary barrier effects and debris slide triggering in unsaturated layered covers.” Eng. Geol. 147–148 (Oct): 14–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.07.003.
Montrasio, L., and R. Valentino. 2007. “Experimental analysis and modeling of shallow landslides.” Landslides 4 (3): 291–296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0082-3.
Montrasio, L., R. Valentino, and G. L. Losi. 2012. “Shallow landslides triggered by rainfalls: Modeling of some case histories in the Reggiano Apennine (Emilia Romagna Region, Northern Italy).” Nat. Hazard. 60 (3): 1231–1254. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9906-5.
Napolitano, E., F. Fusco, R. L. Baum, J. W. Godt, and P. De Vita. 2016. “Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy).” Landslides 13 (5): 967–983. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0647-5.
Pagano, L., L. Picarelli, G. Rianna, and G. Urciuoli. 2010. “A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils.” Landslides 7 (3): 273–289. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0216-x.
Peranić, J., and Ž. Arbanas. 2020. “Impact of the wetting process on the hydro-mechanical behavior of unsaturated residual soil from flysch rock mass: Preliminary results.” Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ. 79 (2): 985–998. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-019-01604-0.
Peruccacci, S., M. T. Brunetti, S. L. Gariano, M. Melillo, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti. 2017. “Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy.” Geomorphology 290 (Aug): 39–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.031.
Picarelli, L., L. Olivares, L. Comegna, and E. Damiano. 2008. “Mechanical aspects of flow-like movements in granular and fine grained soils.” Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 41 (1): 179–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-007-0135-x.
Ponziani, F., C. Pandolfo, M. Stelluti, N. Berni, L. Brocca, and T. Moramarco. 2012. “Assessment of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture modeling for operational hydrogeological risk prevention in the Umbria region (central Italy).” Landslides 9 (2): 229–237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0287-3.
Rosso, R., M. C. Rulli, and G. Vannucchi. 2006. “A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding.” Water Resour. Res. 42 (6): W06410. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004369.
Salciarini, D., C. Tamagnini, P. Conversini, and S. Rapinesi. 2012. “Spatially distributed rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides.” Nat. Hazard. 61 (1): 229–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9739-2.
Schmidt, K. M., J. J. Roering, J. D. Stock, W. E. Dietrich, D. R. Montgomery, and T. Schaub. 2001. “The variability of root cohesion as an influence on shallow landslide susceptibility in the Oregon Coast Range.” Can. Geotech. J. 38 (5): 995–1024. https://doi.org/10.1139/t01-031.
Tarantino, A., and A. Di Donna. 2019. “Mechanics of unsaturated soils: Simple approaches for routine engineering practice.” Ital. Geotech. J. (4).
Terzaghi, K. 1943. Theoretical soil mechanics. New York: Wiley.
Troncone, A., L. Pugliese, G. Lamanna, and E. Conte. 2021. “Prediction of rainfall-induced landslide movements in the presence of stabilizing piles.” Eng. Geol. 288 (Jul): 106143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106143.
Van Asch, T. W. J., L. P. H. Van Beek, and T. A. Bogaard. 2007. “Problems in predicting the mobility of slow-moving landslides.” Eng. Geol. 91 (1): 46–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.12.012.
Van Genuchten, M. T. 1980. “A closed form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils.” Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 44 (5): 892–898. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1980.03615995004400050002x.
Wang, G., and K. Sassa. 2001. “Factors affecting rainfall-induced flowslides in laboratory flume tests.” Géotechnique 51 (7): 587–599. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.2001.51.7.587.
Wilson, G. W., D. G. Fredlund, and S. L. Barbour. 1994. “Coupled soil-atmosphere modeling for soil evaporation.” Can. Geotech. J. 31 (2): 151–161. https://doi.org/10.1139/t94-021.
Wu, Y., H. Lan, X. Gao, L. Li, and Z. Yang. 2015. “A simplified physically based coupled rainfall threshold model for triggering landslides.” Eng. Geol. 195 (Sep): 63–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.05.022.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 148 • Issue 10 • October 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 4, 2021
Accepted: May 16, 2022
Published online: Aug 1, 2022
Published in print: Oct 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Jan 1, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Ning Lu, Angel Rodrigo Angulo Calderon, Alexandra Wayllace, Jonathan Lovekin, Amy Crandall, Suction Stress–Based Rainfall Intensity–Duration Method for Slope Instability Prediction, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 10.1061/JGGEFK.GTENG-12597, 150, 8, (2024).
- Antonello Troncone, Luigi Pugliese, Andrea Parise, Enrico Conte, Analysis of a landslide in sensitive clays using the material point method, Geotechnical Research, 10.1680/jgere.22.00060, (1-11), (2023).
- Antonello Troncone, Luigi Pugliese, Enrico Conte, A Simplified Analytical Method to Predict Shallow Landslides Induced by Rainfall in Unsaturated Soils, Water, 10.3390/w14193180, 14, 19, (3180), (2022).
- Antonello Troncone, Luigi Pugliese, Enrico Conte, Rainfall Threshold for Shallow Landslide Triggering Due to Rising Water Table, Water, 10.3390/w14192966, 14, 19, (2966), (2022).
- Yun Tian, Yong Wu, Jiangyu Lin, Xueling Li, Dafu Xu, Futao Zhou, Qi Feng, Characterization of the Erosion Damage Mechanism of Coal Gangue Slopes through Rainwater Using a 3D Discrete Element Method: A Case Study of the Guizhou Coal Gangue Slope (Southwestern China), Applied Sciences, 10.3390/app12178548, 12, 17, (8548), (2022).