Forecasting Spring Reservoir Inflows in Churchill Falls Basin in Québec, Canada
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Volume 13, Issue 6
Abstract
The performance of different models and procedures for forecasting aggregated May–July streamflow for the Churchill Falls basin on the Québec-Labrador peninsula is compared. The models compared have different lead times and include an autoregressive model using only past streamflow data, an autoregressive with exogenous input model utilizing both past streamflow and precipitation, and a linear regression model using the principal components of exogenous measures of atmospheric circulation inferred from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis project. The forecast skills of the different approaches are compared using a variety of measures of performance. The results indicate that relatively accurate forecasts using only measures of atmospheric circulation can be issued as early as in December of the prior year. A multimodel combination approach is found to be more effective than the use of a single forecast model. In addition, it is concluded that forecasting models utilizing atmospheric circulation data are useful, especially for basins where hydroclimatic observations are scarce and for basins where flows and other hydroclimatic variables are not strongly autocorrelated (do not depend on their past).
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13 • Issue 6 • June 2008
Pages: 426 - 437
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Oct 7, 2005
Accepted: Jul 31, 2007
Published online: Jun 1, 2008
Published in print: Jun 2008
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