Analysis of Climatic States and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns That Influence Québec Spring Streamflows
This article is a reply.
VIEW THE ORIGINAL ARTICLEThis article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13, Issue 6
Abstract
Results from diagnostic analyses to understand the seasonal evolution of the large-scale climatic state responsible for the development and melt of the winter snowpack, and spring–early summer precipitation in the Churchill Falls region on the Québec-Labrador Peninsula, Canada, are presented in the context of the development of an empirical model for seasonal to annual streamflow forecasting, with a special emphasis on the May–July spring freshet. Teleconnection indices and gridded global measures of atmospheric circulation inferred from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis are used as climatic indicators. Composite and correlation analyses are applied to the climatic indicators conditioned on the spring streamflow for identification of potential predictors. Meridional and zonal atmospheric fluxes over the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans emanating from regionally persistent sea surface temperature/sea level pressure modes are identified as potential carriers of information. We speculate on the ocean-atmosphere and regional hydrologic mechanisms that may be involved in lending multiseasonal predictability to streamflows in the region.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Allan, R. J., Nicholls, N., Jones, P. D., and Butterworth, I. J. (1991). “A further extension of the Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early SOI results and Darwin pressure.” J. Clim., 4(7), 743–749.
Barnston, A. G., and Livezey, R. E. (1987). “Classification, seasonality, and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns.” Mon. Weather Rev., 115(6), 1083–1126.
Bonsal, B. R., Shabbar, A., and Higuchi, K. (2001). “Impacts of low-frequency variability modes on Canadian winter temperature.” Int. J. Climatol., 94(1), 91–108.
Honda, M., and Nakamura, H. (2001). “Interannual seesaw between the Aleutian and Icelandic lows. Part II: Its significance in the interannual variability over the wintertime northern hemispheres.” J. Clim., 14(24), 4512–4529.
Honda, M., Nakamura, H., Ukita, J., Kousaka, I., and Takeuchi, K. (2001). “Interannual seesaw between the Aleutian and Icelandic lows. Part I: Seasonal dependence and life cycles.” J. Clim., 14(6), 1029–1042.
Hurrell, J. W. (1995). “Decadal trends in the north Atlantic oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation.” Science, 269, 676–679.
Jenkins, G. M., and Watts, D. G. (1968). Spectral analysis and its applications, 1st Ed., Holden-Day, New York.
Jones, P. D., Jónsson, T., and Wheeler, D. (1997). “Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and southwest Iceland.” Int. J. Climatol., 17(13), 1433–1450.
Kistler, R., et al. (2001). “The NCEP–NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82(2), 247–268.
Können, G. P., Jones, P. D., Kaltofen, M. H., and Allan, R. J. (1998). “Pre-1866 extensions of the southern oscillation index using early Indonesian and Tahitian meteorological readings.” J. Clim., 11(9), 2325–2339.
Larsen, R. J., and Marx, M. L. (1986). An introduction to mathematical statistics and its applications, 2nd Ed., Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River N.J.
Mantua, N., Hare, S., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R. (1997). “A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78(6), 1069–1079.
Marshall, J., et al. (2001). “Review of North Atlantic climate variability: Phenomena, impacts, and mechanisms.” Int. J. Climatol., 21(15), 1863–1898.
Moura, A. D., and Shukla, J. (1981). “On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a general circulation model.” J. Atmos. Sci., 38(12), 2653–2675.
Rodwell, M. J., and Folland, C. K. (2002). “Atlantic air–sea interaction and seasonal predictability.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 128(583), 1413–1443.
Ropelewski, C. F., and Jones, P. D. (1987). “An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin southern oscillation index.” Mon. Weather Rev., 115(9), 2161–2165.
Shabbar, A., and Barnston, A. G. (1996). “Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis.” Mon. Weather Rev., 124(10), 2370–2385.
Shabbar, A., Huang, J., and Higuchi, K. (2001). “The relationship between the wintertime North Atlantic oscillation and blocking episodes in the North Atlantic.” Int. J. Climatol., 21(3), 355–369.
Sheridan, S. C. (2003). “North American weather-type frequency and teleconnection indices.” Int. J. Climatol., 23(1), 27–45.
Sveinsson, O. G. B., et al. (2008). “Forecasting spring reservoir inflows in the Churchill Falls Basin in Québec, Canada.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 13(6), 426–437.
Thompson, D. W. J., and Wallace, J. M. (2000a). “Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability.” J. Clim., 13(5), 1000–1016.
Thompson, D. W. J., and Wallace, J. M. (2000b). “Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends.” J. Clim., 13(5), 1018–1036.
Trenberth, K., and Hurrell, J. W. (1994). “Decadal atmosphere—Ocean variations in the Pacific.” Clim. Dyn., 9(6), 303–319.
Wallace, J. M., and Gutzler, D. S. (1981). “Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter.” Mon. Weather Rev., 109(4), 784–812.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13 • Issue 6 • June 2008
Pages: 411 - 425
Copyright
© 2008 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 7, 2005
Accepted: Mar 12, 2007
Published online: Jun 1, 2008
Published in print: Jun 2008
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.