Uncertainty Analysis of Dredge Production with Correlation

This paper presents an analytical method for estimating the uncertainty of dredge production measures considering the uncertainties of the component variables and their correlations. Two types of production systems, pipeline and hopper dredges, are considered. For pipeline dredges, the production measures are the pipeline volumetric flow rate and the pipeline solids flow rate. These measures depend on the slurry density, water density, in‐place sediment density (or sediment mineral density), flow velocity in the pipe, and the pipe diameter. For hopper dredges, the production measures are the hopper volumetric load and the hopper solids load. These measures depend on the preceding densities (except slurry) and the weight and volume of material in the hopper. The production measure uncertainty is defined as the ratio of the standard deviation divided by the mean, which are calculated based on the first‐order probabilistic analysis. The sensitivity of the production measure uncertainty to various variables is examined and the method is illustrated using a numerical example.