Role of Hurricane Wind Models in Accurate Simulation of Storm Surge and Waves
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 145, Issue 1
Abstract
Storm-surge and wave models are routinely used to assess the impact of hurricanes/cyclones for emergency preparedness. Although these models are forced by wind fields, generated by meteorological models in hindcast or forecast mode, selecting a wind model that can accurately resolve the wind field, especially near the hurricane/cyclone core, is a challenging task. This study used several wind hindcast models to force a coupled wave and storm-surge model for selected hurricanes, including Bob (1991), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). The resulting simulated storm-surge and wave parameters were compared with observations at a number of observational stations. The wind models include the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (NECOFS) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and parametric wind based on National Hurricane Center (NHC) data sets. The results show that a wind model that has an error in prediction of peak wind speed of more than 20% (when compared with observations) can lead to significant errors in hydrodynamic simulations; using a poor wind model can result in errors as high as 50% for storm-surge and wave predictions. Further, although no single best wind model for all hindcast applications can be recommended (for every region), a wind model that can simulate the environmental wind field and the internal structure of a hurricane (e.g., NECOFS in this study) can better address this uncertainty compared with conventional parametric wind models. The location of a hurricane track relative to the region of interest is a key factor in selecting the proper wind model.
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Acknowledgments
This work was undertaken with funding support from the Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS) Coastal Resilience Project (0005266). The authors gratefully acknowledge Chris Damon from the URI Coastal Resource Center (CRC) for sharing topography and bathymetry data in Rhode Island; Changsheng Chen for providing the NECOFS FVCOM GOM4 mesh and WRF wind data for Hurricane Sandy; the NHC and the NOAA for supplying hurricane and water-level data; the Woods Hole Group for providing the measured wave data; the USGS for supplying water-elevation data; and WF for providing meteorological data.
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Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 145 • Issue 1 • January 2019
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© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 5, 2017
Accepted: Jul 13, 2018
Published online: Nov 15, 2018
Published in print: Jan 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Apr 15, 2019
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