Development of Return Period Stillwater Floodplains for the Northern Gulf of Mexico under the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 145, Issue 2
Abstract
Rising seas increase the exposure, vulnerability, and thus the risk associated with hurricane storm surge flooding across the coastal floodplain. A methodology is applied to down select a suite of synthetic storms from recent flood insurance studies. The purpose is to force wind-wave and hurricane storm surge models of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast (Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle) that represent the future landscape and derive the 1 and 0.2% annual chance floodplain for present-day and four sea-level-rise (SLR) scenarios. Vast new regions become part of the 100-year floodplain by the end of the century. In Mississippi, the present-day 500-year return period event is likely to be the 100-year event under an SLR of 1.2 m. Throughout most of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, the present-day 500-year return period event becomes a 100-year event with just 0.5 m of SLR. Results indicate the need to apply a coastal dynamic modeling approach to plan and prepare for the effects of SLR across the NGOM and other low-gradient coastal landscapes.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank Davina L. Passeri for her review with portions of this manuscript. This research was funded primarily under Award NA10NOS4780146 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise (EESLR) Program, and in part under award number NFWMD-08-073 from the Northwest Florida Water Management District (NWFWMD) and the Louisiana Sea Grant Laborde Chair. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant ACI-1053575 (Towns et al. 2014). This work also used high-performance computing at Louisiana State University (LSU) and the Louisiana Optical Network Initiative (LONI). The statements and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA, NWFWMD, Louisiana Sea Grant, XSEDE, NSF, LSU, or LONI. All data for this paper are properly cited and referred to in the References.
References
Abel, N., R. Gorddard, B. Harman, A. Leitch, J. Langridge, A. Ryan, and S. Heyenga. 2011. “Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: Analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study.” Environ. Sci. Policy 14 (3): 279–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.12.002.
Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. F. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros. 2016a. “A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback.” Ecol. Modell. 327 (May): 29–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.013.
Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, and J. F. Weishampel. 2016b. “Coastal wetland response to sea-level rise in a fluvial estuarine system.” Earth’s Future 4 (11): 483–497. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000385.
Atkinson, J. H., J. M. Smith, and C. Bender. 2013. “Sea-level rise effects on storm surge and nearshore waves on the Texas coast: Influence of landscape and storm characteristics.” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng. 139 (2): 98–117. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000187.
Bilskie, M. V., and S. C. Hagen. 2013. “Topographic accuracy assessment of bare earth lidar-derived unstructured meshes.” Adv. Water Resour. 52 (Feb): 165–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.09.003.
Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, K. Alizad, S. C. Medeiros, D. L. Passeri, H. F. Needham, and A. Cox. 2016a. “Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico.” Earth’s Future 4 (5): 177–193. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000347.
Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, A. T. Cox, M. Salisbury, and D. Coggin. 2016b. “Data and numerical analysis of astronomic tides, wind-waves, and hurricane storm surge along the northern Gulf of Mexico.” J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 121 (5): 3625–3658. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011400.
Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri. 2014. “Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 (3): 927–934. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058759.
Brewer, C. 2018. “Colorbrewer 2.0.” http://colorbrewer2.org/#.
Bridges, T. S. et al. 2015. Use of natural and nature-based features (NNBF) for coastal resilience. Rep. No. SR-15-1. Alexandria, VA: US Army Corps of Engineers.
Bunya, S. et al. 2010. “A high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part I: Model development and validation.” Mon. Weather Rev. 128 (Feb): 345–377. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2906.1.
Cardona, O. D., M. K. v Aalst, J. Birkmann, M. Fordham, G. McGregor, R. Perez, R. S. Pulwarty, E. L. F. Schipper, B. T. Sinh, et al. 2012. “Determinants of risk: Exposure and vulnerability.” In Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, edited by C. B. Field, 65–108. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Chouinard, L. E., and C. Liu. 1997. “Model for recurrence rate of hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico.” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng. 123 (3): 113–119. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(1997)123:3(113).
Crowell, M., K. Coulton, C. Johnson, J. Westcott, D. Bellomo, S. Edelman, and E. Hirsch. 2010. “An estimate of the U.S. population living in 100-year coastal flood hazard areas.” J. Coastal Res. 26 (2): 201–211. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-09-00076.1.
Dahl, K. A., M. F. Fitzpatrick, and E. Spanger-Siegfried. 2017. “Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.” PLoS One 12 (2): e0170949. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170949.
DeLorme, D. E., D. Kidwell, S. C. Hagen, and S. H. Stephens. 2016. “Developing and managing transdisciplinary and transformative research on the coastal dynamics of sea level rise: Experiences and lessons learned.” Earth’s Future 4 (5): 194–209. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000346.
Dietrich, J. C., M. Zijlema, J. J. Westerink, L. H. Holthuijsen, C. N. Dawson, R. A. Luettich, R. E. Jensen, J. M. Smith, G. S. Stelling, and G. W. Stone. 2011. “Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrally-coupled, scalable computations.” Coastal Eng. 58 (1): 45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.08.001.
Ding, Y., S. Nath Kuiry, M. Elgohry, Y. Jia, M. S. Altinakar, and K.-C. Yeh. 2013. “Impact assessment of sea-level rise and hazardous storms on coasts and estuaries using integrated processes model.” Ocean Eng. 71 (Oct): 74–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.01.015.
Emanuel, K., S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi. 2006. “A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87 (3): 299–314. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299.
Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams. 2008. “Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89 (3): 347–367. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347.
Fagherazzi, S., et al. 2012. “Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors.” Rev. Geophys. 50 (1): RG1002. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000359.
FEMA. 2018. “Glossary.” Region II Coastal Analysis and Mapping. Accessed December 21, 2018. http://www.region2coastal.com/resources/glossary/.
Ferreira, C. M., J. L. Irish, and F. Olivera. 2014. “Quantifying the potential impact of land cover changes due to sea-level rise on storm surge on lower Texas coast bays.” Coastal Eng. 94 (Dec): 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.08.011.
Gray, S. T. 2011. “From uncertainty to action: Climate change projections and the management of large natural areas.” BioSci. 61 (7): 504–505. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.3.
Grossmann, I., and M. G. Morgan. 2011. “Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: What do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?” Clim. Change 108 (3): 543–579. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0020-1.
Gutierrez, B. T., N. G. Plant, and E. R. Thieler. 2011. “A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise.” J. Geophys. Res.: Earth Surf. 116 (F2): F02009. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JF001891.
Hagen, S. C., and P. Bacopoulos. 2012. “Coastal flooding in Florida’s big bend region with application to sea level rise on synthetic storm analysis.” Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 23 (5): 481–500. https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2012.04.17.01(WMH).
Hagen, S. C., D. L. Passeri, M. V. Bilskie, D. E. DeLorme, and D. Yoskowitz. 2017. “Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience.” In Oxford research encyclopedia of natural hazard science, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Highfield, W. E., S. A. Norman, and S. D. Brody. 2013. “Examining the 100-year floodplain as a metric of risk, loss, and household adjustment.” Risk Anal. 33 (2): 186–191. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01840.x.
Holthuijsen, L. H., A. Herman, and N. Booij. 2003. “Phase-decoupled refraction–diffraction for spectral wave models.” Coastal Eng. 49 (4): 291–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3839(03)00065-6.
Hovenga, P. A., D. Wang, S. C. Medeiros, S. C. Hagen, and K. Alizad. 2016. “The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to climate and land use land cover change.” Earth’s Future 4 (5): 124–142. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000348.
Hunter, J. 2012. “A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise.” Clim. Change 113 (2): 239–252. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1.
IPCC. 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, 1535. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Irish, J. L., and D. T. Resio. 2013. “Method for estimating future hurricane flood probabilities and associated uncertainty.” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng. 139 (2): 126–134. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000157.
Irish, J. L., D. T. Resio, and M. A. Cialone. 2009. “A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions.” Nat. Hazards 51 (1): 183–205. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9381-4.
Irish, J., A. Sleath, M. Cialone, T. Knutson, and R. Jensen. 2014. “Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900.” Clim. Change 122 (4): 635–649. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1011-1.
Keim, B. D., R. A. Muller, and G. W. Stone. 2007. “Spatiotemporal patterns and return periods of tropical storm and hurricane strikes from Texas to Maine.” J. Clim. 20 (14): 3498–3509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4187.1.
Kidwell, D. M., J. C. Dietrich, S. C. Hagen, and S. C. Medeiros. 2017. “An Earth’s Future special collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes.” Earth’s Future 5 (1): 2–9. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000493.
Kirshen, P., S. Merrill, P. Slovinsky, and N. Richardson. 2012. “Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone.” Clim. Change 113 (3–4): 919–931. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0379-z.
Kirwan, M. L., G. R. Guntenspergen, A. D'Alpaos, J. T. Morris, S. M. Mudd, and S. Temmerman. 2010. “Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 (23): L23401. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045489.
Knabb, R. D., J. R. Rhome, and D. P. Brown. 2005. Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Katrina. Miami: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The National Weather Service, Tropical Prediction Center. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf.
Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi. 2010. “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nat. Geosci. 3 (3): 157–163. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779.
Landsea, C. W., B. A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. A. Knaff. 2006. “Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones?” Science 313 (5786): 452–454. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128448.
Lettis Consultants International. 2012. Joint probability analysis of hurricane flood hazards for Gulf, Bay, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia Counties Florida, and Baldwin and Mobile Counties Alabama. Rep. 69. Boulder, CO: Lettis Consultants International.
Levine, J. N., A. M. Esnard, and A. Sapat. 2007. “Population displacement and housing dilemmas due to catastrophic disasters.” J. Plann. Lit. 22 (1): 3–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/0885412207302277.
Lickley, M. J., N. Lin, and H. D. Jacoby. 2014. “Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk.” Clim. Risk Manage. 6: 18–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2015.01.001.
Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke. 2012. “Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change.” Nat. Clim. Change 2 (6): 462–467. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1389.
Linkov, I. et al. 2014. “Changing the resilience paradigm.” Nat. Clim. Change 4 (6): 407–409. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2227.
Lin, N., P. Lane, K. A. Emanuel, R. M. Sullivan, and J. P. Donnelly. 2014. “Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres 119 (14): 8606–8623. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021584.
Luettich, R. A., and J. J. Westerink. 2006. Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D/3D ADCIRC finite element model version 44.XX. https://adcirc.org/files/2018/11/2004_Luettich.pdf.
Mantell, N. H., J. J. Seneca, M. L. Lahr, W. Irving, and J. W. Hughes. 2013. The economic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, a macroeconomic analysis. Rutgers Reg. Rep. 34: 1–16. https://doi.org/10.7282/T3Q81B9X.
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson. 2007. “The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones.” Environ. Urbanization 19 (1): 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247807076960.
McInnes, K. L., I. Macadam, G. Hubbert, and J. O'Grady. 2013. “An assessment of current and future vulnerability to coastal inundation due to sea-level extremes in Victoria, southeast Australia.” Int. J. Climatol. 33 (1): 33–47. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3405.
Medeiros, S., S. Hagen, N. Chaouch, J. Feyen, M. Temimi, J. Weishampel, Y. Funakoshi, and R. Khanbilvardi. 2013. “Assessing the performance of a northern Gulf of Mexico tidal model using satellite imagery.” Remote Sens. 5 (11): 5662–5679. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5115662.
Medeiros, S. C., S. C. Hagen, and J. F. Weishampel. 2012. “Comparison of floodplain surface roughness parameters derived from land cover data and field measurements.” J. Hydrol. 452–453 (Jul): 139–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.043.
Medeiros, S., S. Hagen, J. Weishampel, and J. Angelo. 2015. “Adjusting lidar-derived digital terrain models in coastal marshes based on estimated aboveground biomass density.” Remote Sens. 7 (4): 3507–3525. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70403507.
Meehl, G. A, et al. 2007. “Global climate projections.” In Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Soloman, D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. J. Miller, and Z. Chen, 747–845. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Moftakhari, H. R., A. AghaKouchak, B. F. Sanders, D. L. Feldman, W. Sweet, R. A. Matthew, and A. Luke. 2015. “Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 (22): 9846–9852. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066072.
Moftakhari, H. R., A. AghaKouchak, B. F. Sanders, and R. A. Matthew. 2017. “Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding.” Earth’s Future 5 (2): 214–223. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000494.
Morey, S. L., S. Baig, M. A. Bourassa, D. S. Dukhovskoy, and J. J. O'Brien. 2006. “Remote forcing contribution to storm-induced sea level rise during Hurricane Dennis.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (19): L19603. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027021.
Morris, J. T., P. V. Sundareshwar, C. T. Nietch, B. Kjerfve, and D. R. Cahoon. 2002. “Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level.” Ecol. 83 (10): 2869–2877. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2869:ROCWTR]2.0.CO;2.
Morton, R. A. 2008. “Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama Barrier-Island Chain and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities.” J. Coastal Res. 24 (6): 1587–1600. https://doi.org/10.2112/07-0953.1.
Moss, R. H. et al. 2010. “The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.” Nature 463 (7282): 747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823.
Mousavi, M. E., J. L. Irish, A. E. Frey, F. Olivera, and B. L. Edge. 2011. “Global warming and hurricanes: The potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding.” Clim. Change 104 (3–4): 575–597. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0.
Muller, R. A., and W. S. Gregory. 2001. “A climatology of tropical storm and hurricane strikes to enhance vulnerability prediction for the southeast U.S. coast.” J. Coastal Res. 17 (4): 949–956.
Needham, H., B. D. Keim, D. Sathiaraj, and M. Shafer. 2012. “Storm surge return periods for the United States Gulf Coast.” In Proc., World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries, edited by Eric D. Loucks, 2422–2463. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Neumann, J. E., K. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. Ludwig, P. Kirshen, K. Bosma, and J. Martinich. 2015. “Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy.” Clim. Change 129 (1–2): 337–349. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z.
Nicholls, R. J., and A. Cazenave. 2010. “Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones.” Science 328 (5985): 1517–1520. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185782.
Niedoroda, A. W., D. T. Resio, G. R. Toro, D. Divoky, H. S. Das, and C. W. Reed. 2010. “Analysis of the coastal Mississippi storm surge hazard.” Ocean Eng. 37 (1): 82–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.08.019.
Parris, A. et al. 2012. Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States national climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1. Silver Spring, MD: Climate Program Office (CPO).
Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and M. V. Bilskie. 2015a. “Impacts of historic morphology and sea level rise on tidal hydrodynamics in a microtidal estuary (Grand Bay, Mississippi).” Cont. Shelf Res. 111 (Part B): 150–158 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.08.001.
Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang. 2015b. “The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: A review.” Earth’s Future 3 (6): 159–181. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000298.
Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, N. G. Plant, M. V. Bilskie, S. C. Medeiros, and K. Alizad. 2016. “Tidal hydrodynamics under future sea level rise and coastal morphology in the northern Gulf of Mexico.” Earth’s Future 4 (5): 159–176. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000332.
Pendleton, E. A., J. A. Barras, S. J. Williams, and D. C. Twichell. 2010. Coastal vulnerability assessment of the northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change. Rep. 30. Reston, VA: US Geological Survey.
Plant, N. G., E. Robert Thieler, and D. L. Passeri. 2016. “Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network.” Earth’s Future 4 (5): 143–158. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000331.
Resio, D., J. Irish, and M. Cialone. 2009. “A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment—Part 1: Basic concepts.” Nat. Hazards 51 (1): 163–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9379-y.
Resio, D. T. 2007. White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities. Rep. 125. Vicksburg, MS: US Army Engineering Research and Development Center.
Ruckert, K. L., P. C. Oddo, and K. Keller. 2017. “Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.” PLoS One 12 (3): e0174666. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0174666.
Smith, J. M., M. A. Cialone, T. V. Wamsley, and T. O. McAlpin. 2010. “Potential impact of sea level rise on coastal surges in southeast Louisiana.” Ocean Eng. 37 (1): 37–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.07.008.
Stephens, S., D. DeLorme, and S. Hagen. 2016. “Evaluation of the design features of interactive sea-level rise viewers for risk communication.” Environ. Commun. 11 (2): 248–262. https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2016.1167758.
Taylor, N., J. Irish, I. Udoh, M. Bilskie, and S. Hagen. 2015. “Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays.” Nat. Hazards 77 (2): 1103–1123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1646-5.
Tebaldi, C., B. H. Strauss, and C. E. Zervas. 2012. “Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts.” Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (1): 014032. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032.
Toro, G. R., S. Hagen, J. Atkinson, and C. W. Reed. 2011. “Production runs for the Big Bend Region of Florida.” Florida Watershed J. 4 (2): 28–35.
Toro, G. R., A. W. Niedoroda, C. W. Reed, and D. Divoky. 2010a. “Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard.” Ocean Eng. 37 (1): 114–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.09.005.
Toro, G. R., D. T. Resio, D. Divoky, A. W. Niedoroda, and C. Reed. 2010b. “Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis.” Ocean Eng. 37 (1): 125–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.09.004.
Towns, J. et al. 2014. “XSEDE: Accelerating scientific discovery.” Comput. Sci. Eng. 16 (5): 62–74. https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2014.80.
Tribbia, J., and S. C. Moser. 2008. “More than information: What coastal managers need to plan for climate change.” Environ. Sci. Policy 11 (4): 315–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.01.003.
Weeks, D., P. Malone, and L. Welling. 2011. “Climate change scenario planning: A tool for managing parks into uncertain futures.” Park Sci. 28 (1): 26–33.
Woodruff, J. D., J. L. Irish, and S. J. Camargo. 2013. “Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.” Nature 504 (7478): 44–52. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12855.
Zhang, K., Y. Li, H. Liu, H. Xu, and J. Shen. 2013. “Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding.” Clim. Change 118 (2): 487–500. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0645-8.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 145 • Issue 2 • March 2019
Copyright
© 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 26, 2017
Accepted: Oct 19, 2018
Published online: Jan 2, 2019
Published in print: Mar 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 2, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.