Transforming Global Climate Model Precipitation Output for Use in Urban Stormwater Applications
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 6
Abstract
Statistically downscaled global climate model (GCM) precipitation output is available for Philadelphia, but the temporal resolution is too low for direct use in model-based urban stormwater applications. Additionally, GCM output for Philadelphia does not accurately represent local storm intensities and durations. To address these limitations, this study presents an innovative approach employed by the Philadelphia Water Department (PWD) to transform GCM output into actionable science that can directly inform planning, design, and engineering applications, including hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling and intensity-duration-frequency curve development. This approach uses GCM output for current (1995–2015) and future (2080–2100) conditions under a certain greenhouse gas emission trajectory to develop delta change factors based on season and storm size. These factors are then used to create a plausible future hourly time series. A stochastic generator was also developed that utilizes the adjusted future time series to explore potential variability in projected precipitation patterns. The approach presented in this study is practical and transferable, addressing the need for actionable climate change information in the field of water resource management.
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Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 6 • June 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 30, 2017
Accepted: Nov 5, 2018
Published online: Mar 27, 2019
Published in print: Jun 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Aug 27, 2019
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