Reliability Analysis of Water Distribution Systems Using Physical Probabilistic Pipe Failure Method
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 2
Abstract
Water distribution systems (WDSs) are among the most essential infrastructure systems for the sustenance of societies. Therefore, their continued reliability is of utmost importance. However, the reliability of WDSs decreases over time due to aging and deterioration of components, especially pipelines. Metallic pipes are subject to external and internal corrosion overtime, which can significantly affect their mechanical strength and hydraulic performance and, consequently, WDS reliability. Existing research on system reliability is typically based on statistical failure prediction of pipelines, which, however, typically assumes a constant failure rate, thereby ignoring time-dependent strength deterioration due to corrosion. This paper proposes a framework for modeling the time-dependent reliability of WDSs with cast iron pipes considering both mechanical and hydraulic reliabilities. Time-dependent failure of pipelines is evaluated through a fragility analysis that considers the decrease of wall thickness over time due to corrosion. The impact of internal corrosion on hydraulic performance is also accounted for with a time-dependent roughness model. A notional WDS is used to demonstrate the proposed framework. The results of the case study show that pipe corrosion can significantly impact the reliability of a WDS as it ages. The proposed framework links the deterioration of pipeline strength and hydraulic performance with system reliability and can, therefore, form the basis of a reliability-based plan for maintenance and rehabilitation.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) under Grant NSF-1638320. The authors also acknowledge Cleveland Water Department, particularly its commissioner Mr. Alex Margevicius, for their support of this project. This support is gratefully acknowledged. However, the writers take sole responsibility for the views expressed in this paper, which may not represent the position of the NSF or its institutions.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 2 • February 2019
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 4, 2018
Accepted: Aug 14, 2018
Published online: Dec 10, 2018
Published in print: Feb 1, 2019
Discussion open until: May 10, 2019
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