Optimal Operation of Danjiangkou Reservoir Using Improved Hedging Model and Considering the Effects of Historical Decisions
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 144, Issue 1
Abstract
For reservoirs with multiple water demands, losses in water use utility because of shortages in the water supply from historical operation decisions can be considered information to improve the current decisions. This study proposes an improved hedging model that uses the parameter optimization method to incorporate the effects of historical decisions. A new cumulative water shortage impact index is proposed to evaluate the severity of historical water shortages and their impact on release decisions, and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is incorporated to improve the hedging model. Based on the new index, a weighting factor of previously derived hedging rules is optimized, which represents the relative importance of water release and water storage, and more realistic hedging rules and operation decisions for reservoir managers are obtained. The new model is employed at the Danjiangkou Reservoir, which serves as one of the major storage points on the middle route of the south-to-north water transfer project (SNWTP). The results show the following: (1) when the reservoir inflow is insufficient, the initial weighting factor (initial ) and its corresponding scaling factor can be obtained to guide decisions by considering the forecasted inflow, starting regulation level (SRL), and expected water level at the end of year (WLE); (2) by following the optimal solution, the water delivery process becomes more uniform, and a more reasonable water supply order can be determined according to the unit water supply benefit for each water user; and (3) in an average dry year and in the driest year in the historical record, with initial values of 0.7 and 0.15, the SRL is greater than 158 m, and the delivery rates of the SNWTP water in the initial stages should be controlled at approximately 0.85 and 0.4, respectively.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0402203), National Natural Science Foundation of China (51722906), and the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities (B14012). The writers also acknowledge the assistance of anonymous reviewers.
References
Antofie, T., Naumann, G., Spinoni, J., and Vogt, J. (2015). “Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(1), 177–193.
Bower, B. T., Hufschmidt, M. M., and Reedy, W. W. (1962). “Operating procedures: Their role in the design of water-resource systems by simulation analyses.” Design of water resources systems, A. Maass, et al., eds., Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 443–458.
Celeste, A., and Billib, M. (2009). “Evaluation of stochastic reservoir operation optimization models.” Adv. Water Resour., 32(9), 1429–1443.
Chiamsathit, C., Adeloye, A. J., and Soundharajan, B. (2014). “Genetic algorithms optimization of hedging rules for operation of the multi-purpose Ubonratana Reservoir in Thailand.” Proc., 6th IAHS-ICWRS Int. Symp. on Integrated Water Resources Management, International Association Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, U.K., 507–512.
Dariane, A. B., and Karami, K. (2014). “Deriving hedging rules of multi-reservoir system by online evolving neural networks.” Water Resour. Manage., 28(11), 3651–3665.
Ding, W., Zhang, C., and Peng, Y. (2015). “An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk.” Water Resour. Res., 51(6), 4702–4726.
Draper, A. J., and Lund, J. R. (2004). “Optimal hedging and carryover storage value.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 83–87.
Eum, H.-I., Kim, Y.-O., and Palmer, R. N. (2011). “Optimal drought management using sampling stochastic dynamic programming with a hedging rule.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 113–122.
Guo, X. N., Hu, T. S., Wu, C. L., Zhang, T., and Lv, Y. B. (2013a). “Multi-objective optimization of the proposed multi-reservoir operating policy using improved NSPSO.” Water Resour. Manage., 27(7), 2137–2153.
Guo, X. N., Hu, T. S., Zeng, X., and Li, X. J. (2013b). “Extension of parametric rule with the hedging rule for managing multireservoir system during droughts.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 139–148.
Hsu, N. S., and Cheng, K. W. (2002). “Network flow optimization model for basin-scale water supply planning.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 102–112.
Jiang, R. G., Xie, J. C., He, H. L., Luo, J. G., and Zhu, J. W. (2015). “Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012.” Nat. Hazards, 75(3), 2885–2903.
Labadie, J. W. (2004). “Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: State-of-the-art review.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 93–111.
Lian, J. J., Sun, X. Z., and Ma, C. (2016). “Multi-year optimal operation strategy of Danjiangkou Reservoir after dam heightening for the middle route of south-north water transfer project.” Water Sci. Technol., 16(4), 961–970.
Liu, Y., Yang, X. L., Ren, L. L., Yuan, F., Jiang, S. H., and Ma, M. W. (2015). “A new physically based self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index and its performance evaluation.” Water Resour. Manage., 29(13), 4833–4847.
Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 58.
Peng, A. B., Peng, Y., Zhou, H. C., and Zhang, C. (2015a). “Multi-reservoir joint operating rule in inter-basin water transfer-supply project.” Sci. China-Technol. Sci. 58(1), 123–137.
Peng, Y., Chu, J. G., Pang, A. B., and Zhou, H. C. (2015b). “Optimization operation model coupled with improving water-transfer rules and hedging rules for inter-basin water transfer-supply systems.” Water Resour. Manage., 29(10), 3787–3806.
Shiau, J. T. (2011). “Analytical optimal hedging with explicit incorporation of reservoir release and carryover storage targets.” Water Resour. Res., 47(1), W01515.
Shih, J. S., and ReVelle, C. (1994). “Water-supply operations during drought: Continuous hedging rule.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 613–629.
Shih, J. S., and ReVelle, C. (1995). “Water supply operations during drought: A discrete hedging rule.” Eur. J. Oper. Res., 82(1), 163–175.
Soltanjalili, M.-J., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013). “Operating water distribution networks during water shortage conditions using hedging and intermittent water supply concepts.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 644–659.
Taghian, M., Rosbjerg, D., Haghighi, A., and Madsen, H. (2014). “Optimization of conventional rule curves coupled with hedging rules for reservoir operation.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 693–698.
Tu, M.-Y., Hsu, N.-S., Tsai, F. T.-C., and Yeh, W. W.-G. (2008). “Optimization of hedging rules for reservoir operations.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 3–13.
Wang, Q., Zhou, H. C., Liang, G. H., and Xu, H. J. (2015). “Optimal operation of bidirectional inter-basin water transfer-supply system.” Water Resour. Manage., 29(9), 3037–3054.
Wells, N., Goddard, S., and Hayes, M. J. (2004). “A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index.” J. Climate, 17(12), 2335–2351.
Xu, W. Z., Zhao, J. S., Zhao, T. T. G., and Wang, Z. J. (2015). “Adaptive reservoir operation model incorporating nonstationary inflow prediction.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 04014099.
Yeh, W. (1985). “Reservoir management and operations models: A state of the art review.” Water Resour. Res., 21(12), 1797–1818.
You, J.-Y., and Cai, X. (2008a). “Determining forecast and decision horizons for reservoir operations under hedging policies.” Water Resour. Res., 44(11), W11430.
You, J.-Y., and Cai, X. (2008b). “Hedging rule for reservoir operations. 1: A theoretical analysis.” Water Resour. Res., 44(1), W01415.
You, J.-Y., and Cai, X. (2008c). “Hedging rule for reservoir operations. 2: A numerical model.” Water Resour. Res., 44(1), W01416.
Zeng, X., Hu, T. S., Guo, X. N., and Li, X. J. (2014a). “Water transfer triggering mechanism for multi-reservoir operation in inter-basin water transfer-supply project.” Water Resour. Manage., 28(5), 1293–1308.
Zeng, Y., Wu, X. Y., Cheng, C. T., and Wang, Y. Q. (2014b). “Chance-constrained optimal hedging rules for cascaded hydropower reservoirs.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 04014010.
Zhao, T. T. G., Zhao, J. S., Lund, J. R., and Yang, D. W. (2014). “Optimal hedging rules for reservoir flood operation from forecast uncertainties.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 04014041.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 144 • Issue 1 • January 2018
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 7, 2016
Accepted: Jul 13, 2017
Published online: Nov 13, 2017
Published in print: Jan 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Apr 13, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.