Determining Equality of Infection Rates: A Spatial Analysis of Factors Associated with the Spread of COVID-19 in Barcelona, Spain
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 148, Issue 3
Abstract
Since March 2020, the COVID-19 disease has become a global concern, and its concentration has been primarily in urban settings. Previous research suggests that multidimensional factors allow understanding the distribution of the disease but has limitations such as having nonhomogeneous units as the object of study, not incorporating changes in sanitary control measures over time or the absence of mobility variables. To overcome these shortcomings, we investigated the association between socioeconomic, demographic, and built environment factors with infection rates in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, one of the most compact and mixed-use environments in Europe. For this purpose, we use spatial regression models at five different stages that capture variations in sanitary control measures. Our results indicate that before the lockdown, infections were concentrated in high-income areas, but once it started the pattern shifted toward areas characterized by overcrowding, with more people who did not have the opportunity to telework, as well as nursing homes. Although commuting time also maintained a positive association with infections, the use of public transportation was not observed to have a direct impact. Contrary to what was speculated at the beginning of the pandemic, density was not shown to be a decisive factor in explaining infection rates; therefore, the results suggest keeping the focus on the quality of housing to avoid intrafamily infections but particularly in those where elderly dependents live. Likewise, public transportation can maintain its benefits for the most vulnerable urban populations as long as minimum safety measures are guaranteed in its interior.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research is based on JRQ’s master’s thesis, conducted at the Technical University of Catalonia and financed by PRONABEC with the Presidente de la Republica Scholarship. The authors thank Chen Ai for her help in the development of the database and Carlos Rojas Quiroz for his advice on the mathematical notations of the models.
References
Ahmad, K., S. Erqou, N. Shah, U. Nazir, A. R. Morrison, G. Choudhary, and W. C. Wu. 2020. “Association of poor housing conditions with COVID-19 incidence and mortality across US counties.” PLoS One 15 (11): e0241327. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241327.
Angulo-Bazán, Y., G. Solis-Sánchez, F. Cardenas, A. Jorge, J. Acosta, and C. Cabezas. 2021. “Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Lima, Peru.” Cadernos de Saúde Pública 37 (3): e00238720. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00238720.
Anselin, L. 2005. Exploring spatial data with GeoDa: A workbook. Urbana, IL: Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
Baena-Díez, J. M., M. Barroso, S. I. Cordeiro-Coelho, J. L. Díaz, and M. Grau. 2020. “Impact of COVID-19 outbreak by income: Hitting hardest the most deprived.” J. Public Health 42 (4): 698–703. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa136.
Bambra, C., R. Riordan, J. Ford, and F. Matthews. 2020. “The COVID-19 pandemic and health inequalities.” J. Epidemiol. Community Health 74 (11): 964–968. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2020-214401.
Barcelona City Council. 2020. “Festival Calendar.” Accessed July 28, 2020. https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/calendarifestius/en/
BOE (Boletín Oficial del Estado). 2020a. 31103. Orden SND/386/2020. Accessed July 28, 2020. https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/05/03/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-4791.pdf.
BOE (Boletín Oficial del Estado). 2020b. Real Decreto-ley 10/2020. Accessed July 28, 2020. https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/03/29/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-4166.pdf.
BOE (Boletín Oficial del Estado). 2020c. 30361. Orden SND/370/2020. Accessed July 28, 2020. https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/04/25/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-4665.pdf.
BOE (Boletín Oficial del Estado). 2020d. 30925. Orden SND/380/2020, 121. Accessed August 1, 2020. https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/05/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-4767.pdf.
BOE (Boletín Oficial del Estado). 2020e. 25390. Real Decreto 463/2020. Accessed August 1, 2020. https://www.boe.es/buscar/pdf/2020/BOE-A-2020-3692-consolidado.pdf.
Borjas, G. J. 2020. “Demographic determinants of testing incidence and covid-19.” Accessed September 1, 2020. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26952.pdf.
Bosch Meda, J. 2006. “El problema de la vivienda en la vejez en Cataluña.” Archit. City Environ. 1 (1): 80–100.
Bosch Meda, J. 2017. “La dimensión económica de la exclusión residencial: Cataluña en el contexto europeo.” Archit. City Environ. 12 (34): 69–96. https://doi.org/10.5821/ace.12.34.4695.
Bucchianeri, G. W. 2010. “Is SARS a poor man’s disease? Socioeconomic status and risk factors for SARS transmission.” Forum Health Econ. Policy 13 (2). https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-9544.1209.
CDC (Centers for Disease Controls and Prevention). 2021. “Scientific brief: SARS-CoV-2 transmission.” Accessed May 9, 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/sars-cov-2-transmission.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fscience%2Fscience-briefs%2Fscientific-brief-sars-cov-2.html#print.
Chang, S., E. Pierson, P. W. Koh, J. Gerardin, B. Redbird, D. Grusky, and J. Leskovec. 2021. “Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening.” Nature 589 (7840): 82–87. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2923-3.
Dong, E., H. Du, and L. Gardner. 2020. “An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time.” Lancet Infect. Dis. 20 (5): 533–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1.
Ghorbani, H. 2019. “Mahalanobis distance and its application for detecting multivariate outliers.” Facta Univ. Ser. Math. Inf. 34 (3): 583–595. https://doi.org/10.22190/fumi1903583g.
Glodeanu, A., P. Gullón, and U. Bilal. 2021. “The experience of working with mobility data in order to detect inequalities during COVID-19 pandemic.” Gaceta Sanitaria. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gaceta.2021.04.003.
Grantz, K. H., M. S. Rane, H. Salje, G. E. Glass, S. E. Schachterle, and D. A. T. Cummings. 2016. “Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 113 (48): 13839–13844. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612838113.
Hortas-Rico, M., and A. Solé-Ollé. 2010. “Does urban sprawl increase the costs of providing local public services? Evidence from Spanish municipalities.” Urban Stud. 47 (7): 1513–1540. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098009353620.
Hosseini Shokouh, S. M. 2017. “Conceptual models of social determinants of health: A narrative review.” Iran J. Public Health 46 (4): 453–446.
Howland, R. E., N. R. Cowan, S. S. Wang, M. L. Moss, and S. Glied. 2020. “Public transportation and transmission of viral respiratory disease: Evidence from influenza deaths in 121 cities in the United States.” PLoS One 15 (12): e0242990. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242990.
Hu, M., et al. 2021. “Risk of coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in train passengers: An epidemiological and modeling study.” Clin. Infect. Dis. 72 (4): 604–610. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1057.
Jones, N. R., Z. U. Qureshi, R. J. Temple, J. P. J. Larwood, T. Greenhalgh, and L. Bourouiba. 2020. “Two metres or one: What is the evidence for physical distancing in Covid-19?” BMJ 370: m3223. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3223.
López-Gay, A., et al. 2022. “Sociodemographic determinants of intraurban variations in COVID-19 incidence: The case of Barcelona.” J. Epidemiol. Community Health 76 (1): 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2020-216325.
Marandi, S. 2013. “Social determinants of health.” In Handbook of public health, edited by I. G. Cohen, A. K. Hoffman, and W. M. Sage. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
McFarlane, C. 2021. “Repopulating density: COVID-19 and the politics of urban value.” Urban Stud. 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980211014810.
Mogi, R., and J. Spijker. 2021. “The influence of social and economic ties to the spread of COVID-19 in Europe.” J. Popul. Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-021-09257-1.
Mollalo, A., B. Vahedi, and K. M. Rivera. 2020. “GIS-based spatial modeling of COVID-19 incidence rate in the continental United States.” Sci. Total Environ. 728: 138884. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138884.
Moovit. 2020. “Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on public transit usage.” Accessed April 30, 2021. https://moovitapp.com/insights/en/Moovit_Insights_Public_Transit_Index-countries.
Perdue, W. C., L. A. Stone, and L. O. Gostin. 2003. “The built environment and its relationship to the public’s health: The legal framework.” Am. J. Public Health 93 (9): 1390–1394. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.93.9.1390.
Piret, J., and G. Boivin. 2021. “Pandemics throughout history.” Front. Microbiol. 11 (Jan): 631736. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2020.631736.
Rahman, M. H., N. M. Zafri, F. R. Ashik, M. Waliullah, and A. Khan. 2021. “Identification of risk factors contributing to COVID-19 incidence rates in Bangladesh: A GIS-based spatial modeling approach.” Heliyon 7 (2): e06260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06260.
Shen, Y., et al. 2020. “Community outbreak investigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among bus riders in Eastern China.” JAMA Internal Med. 180 (12): 1665–1667. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.5225.
Thomas, M. M., N. Mohammadi, and J. E. Taylor. 2021. “Investigating the association between transit adoption and COVID-19 infections in US metropolitan areas.” Sci. Total Environ. 811: 152284. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152284.
Tirachini, A., and O. Cats. 2020. “COVID-19 and public transportation: Current assessment, prospects, and research needs.” J. Public Transp. 22 (1): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.5038/2375-091.22.1.1.
Ward, M., and K. S. Gleditsch. 2007. “An introduction to spatial regression models in the social sciences.” https://dces.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/128/2013/08/W4_W7_WardGleditsch.pdf.
WHO (World Health Organization). 2010. A conceptual framework for action on the social determinants of health. Geneva: WHO.
WHO (World Health Organization). 2020. Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: Implications for IPC precaution recommendations. Geneva: WHO.
WHO (World Health Organization). 2021. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted? Geneva: WHO.
Xu, B., H. Tian, C. E. Sabel, and B. Xu. 2019. “Impacts of road traffic network and socioeconomic factors on the diffusion of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in mainland China.” Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 16 (7): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16071223.
You, H., X. Wu, and X. Guo. 2020. “Distribution of COVID-19 morbidity rate in association with social and economic factors in Wuhan, China: Implications for urban development.” Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17 (10): 3417. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103417.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 148 • Issue 3 • September 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 16, 2021
Accepted: Feb 4, 2022
Published online: Jul 7, 2022
Published in print: Sep 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Dec 7, 2022
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Koudoua Ferhati, Saliha Chouguiat Belmallem, Adriana Burlea-Schiopoiu, The Role of the COVID-19 Crisis in Shaping Urban Planning for Improved Public Health: A Triangulated Study, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 10.3390/ijerph20053804, 20, 5, (3804), (2023).
- Maurici Ruiz‐Pérez, Alexandre Moragues, Joana Maria Seguí‐Pons, Josep Muncunill, Albert Pou Goyanes, Antoni Colom Fernández, Geographical Distribution and Social Justice of the COVID‐19 Pandemic: The Case of Palma (Balearic Islands), GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022GH000733, 7, 2, (2023).