Estimating Vehicle Ownership and Use in Beijing Before the License-Plate Lottery
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 148, Issue 3
Abstract
Developing countries with fast-growing economies have experienced rapidly increasing vehicle ownership, rates of utilization similar to those of developed countries, and worrisome levels of pollution from private transportation. This is especially true in large metropolitan areas in China, where a significant percentage of the population can now afford to own a private vehicle and to use it to satisfy household mobility needs. For this study, we proposed an econometric approach to jointly model private car ownership and use patterns, and estimated greenhouse gas emissions based on data collected in Beijing prior to the implementation of the license-plate lottery policy. Our analysis derived major market indicators; the elasticity of demand for cars with respect to income was estimated to be 0.48, while the elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) to fuel price was −0.17. Among the effects considered, it was found that family income and the ownership of a transit pass significantly affect vehicle ownership, increasing fuel costs reduce VKT, and the density of bus and metro stops has a small influence on both vehicle ownership and use.
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Acknowledgments
This study was partially funded by Aramco Services Company via Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We also acknowledge the China Scholarship Council that financed the visit of the second author to the University of Maryland. Opinions, findings, conclusions, and errors are solely those of the authors.
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 148 • Issue 3 • September 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 18, 2021
Accepted: Jan 20, 2022
Published online: May 3, 2022
Published in print: Sep 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Oct 3, 2022
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