Impacts of Private Autonomous and Connected Vehicles on Transportation Network Demand in the Triangle Region, North Carolina
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 147, Issue 1
Abstract
Autonomous and connected vehicle technologies have the potential to bring profound changes in travel behavior and transportation network performance with moderate to significant market penetration rates (MPRs) within the next few decades. To better understand the long-term impacts of these technologies, this study predicts the network-level effects of privately owned autonomous vehicles (AVs) and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) for the Triangle Region, North Carolina, in the year 2045. Market penetration scenarios of personal AVs and CAVs along with results from microscopic mixed-traffic simulations and travel behavior assumptions are incorporated into a regional travel demand model. Results indicate that a 75% MPR of personal AVs deteriorates the performance of the network, leading to a 5.4% increase in vehicle-hours traveled, and a 17.2% increase in hours of delay. The opposite holds for private CAV adoption, which is found to result in higher peak-period link speed and less congestion. The results of this research help planners and engineers to make informed transportation planning decisions and work toward harnessing the benefits of these technologies while minimizing any negative impacts.
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Acknowledgments
This research was funded by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). The authors are grateful to Joseph Huegy, Director of the Travel Behavior Modeling Group at the Institute for Transportation Research and Education at North Carolina State University for his significant assistance with the Triangle Regional Model. The authors are also thankful to Jamal Alavi, Director of the Transportation Planning Decision at NCDOT, for his valuable insights into this research. In addition, the authors are grateful to Professor Missy Cummings, Duke University, for her valuable feedback. The contents of this article reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of either NCDOT or the Federal Highway Administration at the time of publication.
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Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 147 • Issue 1 • March 2021
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 3, 2020
Accepted: Sep 1, 2020
Published online: Dec 2, 2020
Published in print: Mar 1, 2021
Discussion open until: May 2, 2021
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