Development of Evaluation Model of Urban Growth Stage Considering the Connectivity between Core and Periphery

A city is like a creature that grows through its relationship with the surrounding area, rather than growing alone. Therefore, the situation of a city cannot be assessed by a simple increase or decrease of the dichotomic urban sustainability/competitiveness/decline evaluation index that does not take into consideration the relationship with the surrounding area. This study proposes an evaluation model for urban growth stages that interprets the classical urban growth theory from a modern perspective and applies this to the Seoul Metropolitan Government area to verify the validity of the model. The model reflects the general characteristics of urban growth from the viewpoint of dynamics, and takes into account the relationship with the surrounding area, to overcome the limitations of the existing urban evaluation techniques. The main results of the study are as follows. First, the evaluation method of urban growth stage could evaluate the urban situation and the growth level, because it considered the intrinsic properties of the city. The city is similar to an organism that grows in ecological terms through connectivity with the periphery. Second, the evaluation method is based on the time series analysis from the dynamic perspective; therefore, the growth history of the city could be understood. Third, because the evaluation method is based on long-term data, it was possible to evaluate and predict areas where urban decline, urban backwardness, and urban shrinkage occurred. Fourth, the evaluation method could comprehensively evaluate the urban growth stage in terms of population, economic and industrial, and physical environment, and could classify various types according to urban growth characteristics.