Abstract
Growing rates of sea level rise (SLR) are expected to result in permanent inundation, episodic flooding, and other hazards in coastal regions, presenting an increasing threat to and high pressure on coastal ecosystems. This study presents an integrated research framework to investigate the effects of SLR on land use and explore the corresponding adaptation planning strategies on land-use change and population dynamics in coastal regions. Lands that will be permanently inundated by SLR have been identified via ArcGIS spatial analysis. A questionnaire survey has been conducted with coastal residents to examine their mobility attitudes toward flood inundation. To capture the mobility and location choice, a cellular automata (CA) model is used to simulate land-use change based on the statistical relationship between land suitability and spatial attributes via a multinomial logit model, whereas a binary logit model is used to describe the households’ mobility behaviors. At a cell level (), land-use data of Bay County, Florida, in 1995 and 2010 are used for both model calibration and validation. The model can predict 83.47% of actual residential land-use change for 2010. Under three SLR scenarios (low, medium, and high), the future land development adaptation in 2030 and 2080 are produced according to the defined transition rules. A comparison of model results in adaptation and baseline scenarios indicates that the model can efficiently predict future land-use changes, reflect the corresponding population dynamics, and prevent new land development that may be at risk from future SLR. The proposed methodology could articulate a range of adaptation and mitigation possibilities for managing coastal regions in response to future SLR, thereby offering possible responses that are applicable to a variety of regional, national, and international contexts and providing a basis from which further research, assessments, and action can arise.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number: 51408246), Wuhan science and technology project (Grant Number: 2016040306010192), and U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant Number: OCE-1325227).
Disclaimer
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.
References
Bijlsma, L., et al. (1996). Coastal zones and small islands, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 289–324.
Bouwer, L. M. (2011). “Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92(1), 39–46.
Canters, F., Vanderhaegen, S., Khan, A. Z., Engelen, G., and Uljee, I. (2014). “Land-use simulation as a supporting tool for flood risk assessment and coastal safety planning: The case of the Belgian coast.” Ocean Coastal Manage., 101(2), 102–113.
Chandio, I. A., Matori, A. N., Yusof, K., Talpur, M. A. H., and Aminu, M. (2014). “GIS-based land suitability analysis of sustainable hillside development.” Procedia Eng., 77, 87–94.
Clough, J., Polaczyk, A., and Propato, M. (2016). “Modeling the potential effects of sea-level rise on the coast of New York: Integrating mechanistic accretion and stochastic uncertainty.” Environ. Modell. Software, 84, 349–362.
Council, N. R. (2012). Sea-level rise for the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
Ehler, C. N., Cicin-Sain, B., Knecht, R., South, R., and Weiher, R. (1997). “Guidelines to assist policy makers and managers of coastal areas in the integration of coastal management programs and national climate-change action plans.” Ocean Coastal Manage., 37(1), 7–27.
Ferreira, C. M., Irish, J. L., and Olivera, F. (2014). “Quantifying the potential impact of land cover changes due to sea-level rise on storm surge on lower Texas coast bays.” Coastal Eng., 94, 102–111.
Geurs, K. T., and Wee, B. V. (2004). “Accessibility evaluation of land-use and transport strategies: Review and research directions.” J. Transp. Geogr., 12(2), 127–140.
Hallegatte, S. (2009). “Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change.” Glob. Environ. Change, 19(2), 240–247.
Hansen, H. S. (2010). “Modelling the future coastal zone urban development as implied by the IPCC SRES and assessing the impact from sea level rise.” Landscape Urban Plann., 98(3–4), 141–149.
Hsu, C.-H. (2014). Hurricane surge flooding damage assessment and web-based game development to support K12 education for understanding climate change impact on hurricane surge flooding damage, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX.
Hurlimann, A., Barnett, J., Fincher, R., Osbaldiston, N., Mortreux, C., and Graham, S. (2014). “Urban planning and sustainable adaptation to sea-level rise.” Landscape Urban Plann., 126(1), 84–93.
Inouye, C. E. N., Sousa Jr., W. C., Freitas, D. M., and Simões, E. (2015). “Modelling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in the north coast of São Paulo, Brazil.” Ocean Coastal Manage., 108, 147–157.
IPCC. (2014). “Intergovernmental panel on climate change.” ⟨https://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm⟩ (Dec. 12, 2014).
Klein, R. J. T., Nicholls, R. J., Ragoonaden, S., Capobianco, M., Aston, J., and Buckley, E. N. (2001). “Technological options for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones.” J. Coastal Res., 17(3), 531–543.
Koomen, E., and Stillwell, J. (2007). “Modeling land use change: Theories and methods.” Modeling land use change: Progress and application, E. Koomen and J. Stillwell, eds., Springer, Netherlands.
Kwoka, G. J., Boschmann, E. E., and Goetz, A. R. (2015). “The impact of transit station areas on the travel behaviors of workers in Denver, Colorado.” Trans. Res. A, 80, 277–287.
Li, X., Yang, Q., and Liu, X. (2008). “Discovering and evaluating urban signatures for simulating compact development using cellular automata.” Landscape Urban Plann., 86(2), 177–186.
Lu, Q.-C., and Peng, Z.-R. (2011). “Vulnerability analysis of transportation network under scenarios of sea level rise.” Trans. Res. Rec., 2236, 174–181.
Luisa Martínez, M., Mendoza-González, G., Silva-Casarín, R., and Mendoza-Baldwin, E. (2014). “Land use changes and sea level rise may induce a ‘coastal squeeze’ on the coasts of Veracruz, Mexico.” Glob. Environ. Change, 29, 180–188.
MATLAB [Computer software]. MathWorks, Natick, MA.
Murali, M. R., and Kumar, P. K. D. (2015). “Implications of sea level rise scenarios on land use/land cover classes of the coastal zones of Cochin, India.” J. Environ. Manage., 148, 124–133.
Nicholls, R. J. (1995). “Coastal megacities and climate change.” GeoJournal, 37(3), 369–379.
Peng, Z.-R., Zhao, L., and Yang, F. (2011). Development of a prototype land use model for statewide transportation planning activities, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
Pourebrahim, S., Hadipour, M., and Bin Mokhtar, M. (2011). “Integration of spatial suitability analysis for land use planning in coastal areas; case of Kuala Langat District, Selangor, Malaysia.” Landscape Urban Plann., 101(1), 84–97.
Sanchez, T. (2004). “Land use and growth impacts from highway capacity increases.” J. Urban Plann. Dev., 75–82.
SLAMM version 6.2 [Computer software]. Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc., Waitsfield, VT.
Verburg, P. H., van Eck, J. R. R., de Nijs, T., Dijst, M. J., and Schot, P. (2004). “Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands.” Environ. Plann. A, 31(1), 125–150.
Wang, H., Shen, Q. P., Tang, B. S., and Skitmore, M. (2013). “An integrated approach to supporting land-use decisions in site redevelopment for urban renewal in Hong Kong.” Habitat Int., 38, 70–80.
Yang, L., et al. (2013). “Cross-nested logit model for the joint choice of residential location, travel mode, and departure time.” Habitat Int., 38, 157–166.
Zhang, M., and Landis, J. D. (1995). An empirical model of land use change in the San Francisco Bay Area: 1985–1990, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, Univ. of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA.
Zhao, L., and Peng, Z.-R. (2012). “LandSys: An agent-based cellular automata model of land use change developed for transportation analysis.” J. Trans. Geogr., 25, 35–49.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 19, 2015
Accepted: Apr 5, 2017
Published online: Jul 14, 2017
Published in print: Sep 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Dec 14, 2017
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.