Multicriteria Regression Approach to Modeling Urban Expansion in Greater Lagos, Nigeria
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 143, Issue 3
Abstract
Detecting changes that have occurred in an area, identifying drivers of expansion, and the ability to predict future changes in expansion are important for long-term planning. Lagos (Nigeria) has experienced rapid expansion and many factors can be offered to contribute to its sprawling. The aim of this study is to develop a multivariate model for urban expansion in Greater Lagos for which a set of 14 drivers of expansion is considered in a multinucleic structure. The study area was partitioned into 25 regular cells of each. A sequence of images of the study area for 1984, 2001, 2006, and 2013 was acquired and processed into six land-use classes. Empirical data for the evaluation of each driver were acquired from relevant government agencies and through a field survey. Coefficients of the multicriteria model were derived using a stepwise linear regression analysis. The effectiveness of each driver was tested at a significant level of . Predicted results suggest that urban expansion will increase by 56% in 2030. The observed rate of expansion may form the basis for a new policy on land reform in Lagos.
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 143 • Issue 3 • September 2017
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 7, 2016
Accepted: Jan 31, 2017
Published online: May 29, 2017
Published in print: Sep 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Oct 29, 2017
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