Analytical Forecasting of Population Distribution over Years in a New Rail Transportation Corridor
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 142, Issue 4
Abstract
For fast-growing cities in developing countries, population distribution is significantly affected by a candidate rail transit line. To enjoy the travel convenience of rail service, households would like to move into residential locations in the candidate rail transportation corridor. Meanwhile, while more households are attracted to live in the candidate rail transportation corridor over years, the over-year performance of the candidate rail transit line would be better. That is, interaction exists between population distribution and performance of the candidate rail transit line over years. Unfortunately, the over-year interaction between population distribution and performance of the candidate rail transit line was seldom considered in previous studies. This paper tries to bridge this research gap and presents analytical forecasting of population distributions over years in a new candidate rail transportation corridor. A bilevel mathematical model is proposed, with a lower-level problem formulated as a user-equilibrium model, and an upper-level problem formulated as an over-year rail transit line design model. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the application of the proposed model.
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Acknowledgments
The work described in this paper was jointly supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. PolyU 5215/09E) and a postgraduate studentship from the Research Committee of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. The author would like to thank Prof. W. H. K. Lam of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Prof. Li of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, and anonymous referees for their valuable comments.
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 142 • Issue 4 • December 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 19, 2014
Accepted: Mar 14, 2016
Published online: Jun 15, 2016
Discussion open until: Nov 15, 2016
Published in print: Dec 1, 2016
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