Structural and Policy Changes in the Chinese Housing Market
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 142, Issue 1
Abstract
Housing price becomes a popular topic among nearly most of the investors in major Chinese cities. Recently, the housing markets appears to have shown signs of overheating and nonstationary trends, attributable to the collapse of the global economic environment and the introduction of local policies. The purpose of this study is to investigate if abrupt structural changes, which can be viewed as the effectiveness of government regulations and economic events but hidden in the housing price index, exist. An improved nonparametric statistical model, namely the wavelet detection technique, is introduced in this paper, based on which jump point(s) can be identified. Our empirical study illustrates that the domino effect as suggested by the detected change points are, geographically, from south to north, and from east to west, in contrast with general understanding. This may be a result of the owner-occupier demand in China’s housing markets.
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Acknowledgments
The authors express appreciation to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on this paper. The authors also thank Mr. Ka-hung Yu for his technical and editorial assistance, and thanks to the Staff of China Data Center of the University of Michigan. This study was funded by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University’s Internal Grants (G-U755, G-YK32 and 4-ZZC1).
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 142 • Issue 1 • March 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 8, 2014
Accepted: May 8, 2015
Published online: Jul 9, 2015
Discussion open until: Dec 9, 2015
Published in print: Mar 1, 2016
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