Life-Cycle Typhoon Risk Analysis for Roofs of Low-Rise Buildings Based on the Extremum Probability Density Evolution Method
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 148, Issue 7
Abstract
The extremum probability density evolution method (EPDEM) was introduced for the life-cycle risk analysis of the roofs of low-rise buildings subjected to typhoons. This method can use small sample sizes to account for the uncertainties of winds during the entire track of a typhoon and the changes in resistance of structures over time. This study generated typhoons in Shanghai, China using the Yan Meng wind field model. The EPDEM-based wind load analysis combined with a wind tunnel test was used to generate the probability density curve of typhoon wind loads. To improve the computational accuracy, a modified -means clustering algorithm was introduced in representative point selection. This approach was compared with the Monte Carlo method to show its effectiveness and accuracy for practical applications. Furthermore, risk analysis based on the EPDEM, considering changes in roof resistance within the lifetime of the building, was carried out. The results show that the risk is time-variant and is influenced greatly by the resistance of a structure, and the reliability of the structure declines rapidly after 50 years. A methodology is proposed to predict the vulnerability curves for a new structure at different service times.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant Nos. 52178500 and 51678452 and by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of the People’s Republic of China under Grant No. SLDRCE19-B-12. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSFC or MOST. In addition, the authors acknowledge Yang He from College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University for his help of the experiments.
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Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 148 • Issue 7 • July 2022
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© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jul 30, 2021
Accepted: Mar 1, 2022
Published online: May 9, 2022
Published in print: Jul 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Oct 9, 2022
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Cited by
- Luca Caracoglia, Jamie E. Padgett, Ilaria Venanzi, Risk-Informed and Life-Cycle Analyses of Structures and Infrastructures, Journal of Structural Engineering, 10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0003495, 148, 12, (2022).