Holistic Analysis of Infrastructure Deterioration and Rehabilitation Using System Dynamics
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 22, Issue 1
Abstract
Rehabilitation programs are essential for efficiently managing large networks of infrastructure assets and sustaining their safety and operability. While numerous studies in the literature have focused on various aspects of infrastructure rehabilitation, limited efforts have investigated the overall dynamics of the process. The research presented in this paper, therefore, takes a holistic view to investigate the dynamics that affect rehabilitation decisions and the long-term performance of an infrastructure network. First, the interactions among the main parameters related to asset deterioration, rehabilitation actions, and cost accumulation have been analyzed using causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Afterward, a system dynamics (SD) model has been developed based on the CLDs and the underlying mathematical relations among the various parameters. The SD model was then tested on a network of 1,000 assets over a 50-year plan, considering a range of rehabilitation policies regarding budgets, possible rehabilitation actions, and fund allocation options. The model proved to be a practical and effective tool for quick assessment of the long-term impact of rehabilitation policies on infrastructure performance and costs.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Alvanchi, A., Lee, S., and AbouRizk, S. (2011). “Modeling framework and architecture of hybrid system dynamics and discrete event simulation for construction.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 26(2), 77–91.
Banks, J., Carson, J. S., II, Nelson, B. L., and Nicol, D. M. (2010). Discrete event system simulation, 5th Ed., Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
de la Garza, J., Akyildiz, S., Bish, D., and Krueger, D. (2011). “Network-level optimization of pavement maintenance renewal strategies.” Adv. Eng. Inform., 25(4), 699–712.
Dridi, L., Parizeau, M., Mailhot, A., and Villeneuve, J. (2008). “Using evolutionary optimisation techniques for scheduling water pipe renewal considering a short planning horizon.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 23(8), 625–635.
Elbehairy, H., Elbeltagi, E., Hegazy, T., and Soudki, K. (2006). “Comparison of two evolutionary algorithms for LCC optimization of bridge deck repairs.” J. Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Syst., 21(8), 561–572.
Elhakeem, A., and Hegazy, T. (2005). “Improving deterioration modeling using optimised transition probability matrices for Markov chains.” Proc., 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
Farran, M., and Zayed, T. (2009). “Comparative analysis of life-cycle costing for rehabilitating infrastructure systems.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 320–326.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Frangopol, D. M., and Liu, M. (2007). “Maintenance and management of civil infrastructure based on condition, safety, optimization, and life-cycle cost.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 3(1), 29–41.
Frangopol, D. M., Saydam, D., and Kim, S. (2012). “Maintenance, management, life-cycle design and performance of structures and infrastructures: A brief review.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 8(1), 1–25.
Halfawy, M., Dridi, L., and Baker, S. (2008). “Integrated decision support system for optimal renewal planning of sewer networks.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 360–372.
Hegazy, T., and Rashedi, R. (2013). “Large-scale asset renewal optimization using genetic algorithms plus segmentation.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 419–426.
Homer, J, Sterman, J., Greenwood, B., and Perkola, M. (1993). “Delivery time reduction in pulp and paper mill construction projects: A dynamic analysis of alternatives.” Proc., 1993 Int. System Dynamics Conf., System Dynamics Society, Albany, NY.
Hudson, W. R., Hass, R., and Uddin, W. (1997). Infrastructure management, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Khan, S., Yufeng, L., and Ahmad, A. (2009). “Analysing complex behaviour of hydrological systems through a system dynamics approach.” Environ. Model. Software, 24(12), 1363–1372.
Kiani, B., Shirouyehzad, H., Bafti, F. K., and Fouladgar, H. (2009). “System dynamics approach to analysing the cost factors effects on cost of quality.” Int. J. Qual. Reliab. Manage., 26(7), 685–698.
Kong, J. S., and Frangopol, D. M. (2003). “Life-cycle reliability-based maintenance cost optimization of deteriorating structures with emphasis on bridges.” J. Struct. Eng., 818–828.
Lee, S. H., Peña-Mora, F., and Park, M. (2006). “Dynamic planning and control methodology for strategic and operational construction project management.” Autom. Constr., 15(1), 84–97.
Madanat, S. M., Karlaftis, M. G., and McCarthy, P. S. (1997). “Probabilistic infrastructure deterioration models with panel data.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 4–9.
Morcous, G., Lounis, Z., and Mirza, M. S. (2003). “Identification of environmental categories for Markovian deterioration models of bridge decks.” J. Bridge Eng., 353–361.
Morcous, G., Rivard, H., and Hanna, A. M. (2002). “Modeling bridge deterioration using case-based reasoning.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 86–95.
Ng, M. W., Lin, D. Y., and Waller, S. T. (2009). “Optimal long-term infrastructure maintenance planning accounting for traffic dynamics.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 24(7), 459–469.
Ortiz-García, J. J., Costello, S. B., and Snaith, M. S. (2006). “Derivation of transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modeling.” J. Transp. Eng., 141–161.
Railsback, S. F., Lytinen, S. L., and Jackson, S. K. (2006). “Agent-based simulation platforms: Review and development recommendations.” Simulation, 82(9), 609–623.
Rashedi, R., and Hegazy, T. (2014). “Capital renewal optimisation for large-scale infrastructure networks: Genetic algorithms versus advanced mathematical tools.” J. Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 11(3), 253–262.
Rehan, R., Knight, M. A., Haas, C. T., and Unger, A. J. A. (2011). “Application of system dynamics for developing financially self-sustaining management policies for water and wastewater systems.” Water Res., 45(16), 4737–4750.
Sterman, J. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston.
Tong, T. K., Tam, C., and Chan, A. (2001). “Genetic algorithm optimization in building portfolio management.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 19(6), 601–609.
Ugarelli, R., and Di Federico, V. (2010). “Optimal scheduling of replacement and rehabilitation in wastewater pipeline networks.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 348–356.
Uzarski, D. R. (2002). “Condition assessment manual for building components for use with BUILDER version 2.1.” U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Centre Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (ERDC-CERL), Champaign, IL.
VENSIM [Computer software]. Ventana Systems, Harvard, MA.
Xu, Z., and Coors, V. (2012). “Combining system dynamics model, GIS and 3D visualization in sustainability assessment of urban residential development.” Build. Environ., 47(1), 272–287.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 22 • Issue 1 • March 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 25, 2014
Accepted: Jul 20, 2015
Published online: Sep 24, 2015
Discussion open until: Feb 24, 2016
Published in print: Mar 1, 2016
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.