Multifactor Regression Analysis for Predicting Embankment Dam Breaching Parameters
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 146, Issue 2
Abstract
Embankment dams are common worldwide, and the majority of past dam failures are related to such dams. It is imperative to improve the prediction accuracy of embankment dam failure to better estimate the potential impacts on downstream areas and create effective emergency response plans. A substantial database of 162 case studies was established based on previous studies. Three groups of regression equations relating to peak outflow discharge , mean breach width and breach height were developed as a function of two hydraulic conditions (volume of water above breach bottom , and depth of water above breach bottom ). These proposed prediction formulas have good prediction accuracy and statistical significance. Comparative analyses are presented to further validate the accuracy of the prediction formulas developed in this study. The results of relative weights analysis indicate that both and exert a significant impact on , and the effect of on is significantly higher than that of on , while is considered a prominent factor of . In addition, two main factors leading to embankment dam failure, overtopping and piping, were proven to cause a significant difference in the three breaching parameters (, , and ).
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the submitted article.
Acknowledgments
This research was financed by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51579002), the Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 1608085MD80) and the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (Grant No. 2015491511). The authors are grateful to the editor and reviewers for their valuable comments and helpful suggestions.
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Mar 14, 2018
Accepted: May 1, 2019
Published online: Nov 27, 2019
Published in print: Feb 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Apr 27, 2020
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