New Approach to Identifying Critical Initial Conditions for Extreme Flood Simulations in a Semicontinuous Simulation Framework
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 23, Issue 8
Abstract
Extreme flood simulation with synthetic extreme precipitation events raises unavoidable questions about the choice of initial conditions. State-of-the-art extreme flood estimation frameworks propose to address these questions with the help of semicontinuous modeling and reanalysis of simulated state variables. In this context, the present work proposes a new method for the selection of initial conditions for extreme flood simulation. The method is based on generating sets of initial conditions from the matrix of state variables corresponding to a long simulation run of the selected hydrological model. Two sets of initial conditions are obtained: a deterministic set composed of selected state variable quantiles and a stochastic set composed of state variable vectors randomly drawn from the complete state variable matrix. The extreme flood simulations corresponding to both sets are compared in detail, and the stochastic simulations are used in a sensitivity analysis to identify the dominant state variables and possible interactions. The aim hereby is to provide a tool to analyze the role of initial conditions and the importance to account for state variable interactions in extreme flood estimation. The proposed method is applied to probable maximum flood estimation for the Swiss Mattmark Dam catchment with a semilumped hydrological model. The obtained results for this case study show that for high flood peak quantiles, the initial soil saturation is dominating other state variables, and deterministic initial conditions are sufficient to generate extreme floods.
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Acknowledgments
This work was funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). The work of Bettina Schaefli was supported by the Swiss Competence Center on Energy Research-Supply of Energy (http://www.sccer-soe.ch) and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), grant number PP00P2_157611. Measured precipitation data has been provided by MeteoSuisse. The authors thank the engineering companies Hydrique IngÉnieurs for the use of their hydrological modeling software as well as the engineering company Hertig & Lador SA for the PMP data, they elaborated for the SFOE. The used hydrologic model is also freely available within the software package “Routing System Minerve” (https://www.crealp.ch/fr/accueil/outils-services/logiciels/rs-minerve/telechargement-rsm.html) with add-ins for flood analysis. The sensitivity analysis was completed with Matlab, but free software like R, using the R-packages AlgDesign, DoE.base, and FrF2, or Octave, using the fullfact function for the design matrix generation, could be used to accomplish the analysis. The helpful comments of three anonymous reviewers and of the managing editor greatly improved the quality of this manuscript.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 23 • Issue 8 • August 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 15, 2017
Accepted: Nov 14, 2017
Published online: May 24, 2018
Published in print: Aug 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Oct 24, 2018
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