Regional Statistical Models for the Estimation of Flood Peak Values at Ungauged Catchments: Peninsular Malaysia
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VIEW CORRECTIONPublication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 4
Abstract
Multivariate regional statistical models were developed to estimate flood peak values of various return periods in the Peninsular Malaysia. Annual maximum flood peak data were collected, screened, and analyzed to identify the river gauging stations’ potential to produce identical flood frequency curves. The Peninsula was divided into 10 flood regions. The mean annual flood (MAF) for each region was considered as the function of catchment area () and mean annual rainfall (MAR). The regional equations exhibited good coefficient of determination (). Except for the west of Johor Baru State (Region F6), which showed an value of 0.874, other regions had values greater than 0.90. The regions located along the eastcoast of the Peninsula exhibited better coefficients of determination compared with those for the westcoast, owing to the influence of the northeast monsoon along the eastcoast. Mean index errors (MIEs) with respect to the actual MAF of each flood region are provided to rationalize the design flood peak values to minimize the uncertainty in the predictions. Flood frequency values for the lower, mean, and upper limits were proposed to reduce the effect of outliers and uncertainty in prediction of flood peak values. Knowing the catchment area and MAR of the regions, the design flood peaks of various frequencies can be estimated for the rural ungauged catchments in the Peninsula.
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Acknowledgments
This study was carried out as a part of the National Water Resources Studies 2000–2050 funded by the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) of the Government of Malaysia. Contributions from all parties are greatly acknowledged.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17 • Issue 4 • April 2012
Pages: 547 - 553
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© 2012. American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 17, 2010
Accepted: Jun 13, 2011
Published online: Jun 15, 2011
Published in print: Apr 1, 2012
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