Nonparametric Simulation of Single-Site Seasonal Streamflows
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 15, Issue 4
Abstract
Various parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested in literature for stochastic generation of seasonal streamflows. State-of-the-art nonparametric models are reviewed herein and their drawbacks identified. We developed a simple model that employs the k-nearest neighbor resampling algorithm with gamma kernel perturbation (denoted as KGK model), which enables generation of data that are not the same as the historical data. For preserving the annual variability two approaches are developed. The first one employs the aggregate variable concept (KGKA model), and the second one uses a pilot variable that leads the generation of the seasonal data (KGKP model). The pilot variable refers to the annual data that has been previously generated, but its role is not for disaggregation but rather for conditioning the state that guides the generation of seasonal flows. The proposed models have been compared with a currently available nonparametric model that considers the reproduction of the interannual variability. Monthly streamflows of the Colorado and Niger Rivers were utilized and the performance of the alternative models evaluated by comparing a number of statistics such as the mean, variance, and storage capacity determined from the generated data (monthly and annual) and the corresponding historical data. The extensive testing and comparison of the models led to the conclusion that overall, the suggested model structure KGK (particularly the KGKP model) performs quite well in preserving the monthly and annual historical statistics. The possibilities of extensions of the models are also discussed.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to acknowledge the financial support of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Lower Colorado Region, Contract “Development of Stochastic Hydrology for the Colorado River System.” Special thanks to Dr. D. Frevert, Dr. B. Lane, and Dr. T. Fulp for their technical assistance. Furthermore, the writers are grateful to the editors and associate editor of the journal and to three unknown reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions that improved the paper.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 15 • Issue 4 • April 2010
Pages: 284 - 296
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Feb 13, 2009
Accepted: Oct 1, 2009
Published online: Oct 2, 2009
Published in print: Apr 2010
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