Application of a Probabilistic Assessment of the Permanent Seismic Displacement of a Slope
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 144, Issue 6
Abstract
Predicting the seismic performance of slopes involves an assessment of the expected permanent sliding displacement induced by ground shaking. Often, this analysis uses a deterministic approach that predicts sliding displacements using one level of ground shaking and the best-estimate slope properties (e.g., soil shear strengths). However, this approach does not consider the variability inherent in the prediction of sliding displacement, nor the uncertainties regarding slope properties. A probabilistic framework computes a displacement hazard curve using: (1) the entire ground motion hazard curve from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, (2) a model for predicting the dynamic response of the sliding mass, and (3) a model for predicting the sliding displacement of the sliding mass. A logic tree can also be included, which incorporates the uncertainties in the input parameters for the displacement calculation. This probabilistic framework is demonstrated through application to a slope at a site in California. The results of this analysis show that the probabilistic approach predicts displacements larger than the deterministic approach, which is a direct result of accounting for the uncertain inputs into the analysis. Incorporating these uncertainties and variability into an analysis via the probabilistic approach better captures the seismic risk associated with seismic slope movements and provides a mechanism to account for a reduction in seismic risk when uncertainties are reduced through additional data collection.
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Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Thaleia Travasarou in providing the detailed information regarding the site analyzed as part of this study and reviewing this manuscript. Financial support for this work was provided by the USGS, Department of the Interior, under Grant No. G12AP20083. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. government.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 144 • Issue 6 • June 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 7, 2017
Accepted: Nov 21, 2017
Published online: Apr 13, 2018
Published in print: Jun 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Sep 13, 2018
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