Bayesian Approach for Typhoon-Induced Fragility Analysis of Real Overhead Transmission Lines
Publication: Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 146, Issue 9
Abstract
Failure accidents of transmission lines due to excessive wind-induced displacements pose a serious threat to the operational stability and security of the electric power grid. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the discharge failure probability of overhead transmission lines under typhoon hazards. The Bayesian approach is capable of combining the prior information in the design stage and the full-scale measurement data in the operational stage together to determine the real performance of the tower-line system. By integrating the procedures of the model updating, modal identification, and multiscale wind field simulation in a unified Bayesian framework, the uncertainties of the structural parameters and wind load conditions are reduced and the fragility results are refined according to the updated data and parameters. Based on full-scale measurement data collected during the two strong typhoons Talim (1718) and Kong-rey (1825), the wind-induced fragility of a full-scale transmission line is updated sequentially using the proposed approach. The fragility results show that the failure probability may be underestimated in the design stage, which introduces potential risks in the long-term operation of transmission lines.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available in a repository online in accordance with funder data retention policies.
Acknowledgments
The work described in this paper was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project Nos. 51578504 and 51838012), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Project No. 2018YFE0109500), China Scholarship Council (Project No. 201906325016), the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Project No. LGG18E080001), and the State Grid of China (Project No. 5211JY17000X).
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Published In
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 146 • Issue 9 • September 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 23, 2019
Accepted: Mar 12, 2020
Published online: Jun 22, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 22, 2020
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