A Risk-Based Framework to Evaluate Infrastructure Investment Options for a Water Supply System
Publication: Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 148, Issue 11
Abstract
Increasing water demand due to socio-economic development often requires structure-level interventions, e.g., infrastructure expansion of water supply systems to bridge the gap between demand and water supply. Evaluating different expansion options is critical to making informed decisions. This study focuses on evaluating infrastructure investment options from the reliability perspectives of a water supply system. The evaluation framework is comprised of probabilistic demand projections, stochastic streamflow generation, a mixed-integer programming, and system performance evaluation. Different “industry understood” performance metrics, e.g., annual reliability, maximum delivery capacity, the probability of unsuccessful status, and the magnitude of potential water shortage, can be employed to evaluate the performance of water supply systems. This framework has been applied to Tampa Bay Water, a regional supply agency on the west coast of Florida, United States. The probabilistic demand projections for the future (2021–2040) consider socio-economic projections and climate conditions based on the statistics of historical observations. The Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm is used to capture the bivariate distribution of supply and demand. This mixed-integer programming is a daily system optimization that minimizes operational cost and considers operational constraints and preferences, e.g., water withdrawal permits, facility production capacity, and water production preferences. Current infrastructure capacity and operational conditions are defined as the baseline scenario. Two additional planning scenarios of expanding the treatment capacity of a surface water treatment plant by [20 million gallons per day (mgd)] and (30 mgd) in the year 2028 are investigated. Results reveal that annual reliability would increase with the expansion of surface water treatment plant capacity. The spatio-temporal supply and demand variability determines that the firm yield from the surface water treatment is less than its expanded production capacity. Except for low demand realizations in the future, the duration and magnitude of potential water shortage could be reduced in both scenarios with engineering intervention. Although this framework is demonstrated for a regional water utility in Florida, it can be applied to other water supply systems around the world.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Items available: streamflow and demand data and framework routine codes.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for the constructive comments that improved the manuscript.
References
Asefa, T., J. Clayton, A. Adams, and D. Anderson. 2014a. “Performance evaluation of a water resources system under varying climatic conditions: Reliability, resilience, vulnerability and beyond.” J. Hydrol. 508 (Jan): 53–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.043.
Asefa, T., N. Wanakule, A. Adams, J. Shelby, and J. Clayton. 2014b. “On the use of system performance metrics for assessing the value of incremental water-use permits.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 140 (7): 04014012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000388.
Borgomeo, E., J. W. Hall, F. Fung, G. Watts, K. Colquhoun, and C. Lambert. 2014. “Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties.” Water Resour. Res. 50 (8): 6850–6873. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015558.
Borgomeo, E., M. Mortazavi-Naeini, J. W. Hall, and B. P. Guillod. 2018. “Risk, robustness and water resources planning under uncertainty.” Earth’s Future 6 (3): 468–487. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000730.
Brown, C. M., J. R. Lund, X. Cai, P. M. Reed, E. A. Zagona, A. Ostfeld, J. Hall, G. W. Characklis, W. Yu, and L. Brekke. 2015. “The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management.” Water Resour. Res. 51 (8): 6110–6124.
Brown, T. C., V. Mahat, and J. A. Ramirez. 2019. “Adaptation to future water shortages in the United States caused by population growth and climate change.” Earth’s Future 7 (3): 219–234. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001091.
Chang, S., W. Graham, J. Geurink, N. Wanakule, and T. Asefa. 2018. “Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22 (9): 4793–4813. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018.
Chowdhury, F., C. Lant, and B. Dziegielewski. 2013. “A century of water supply expansion for ten US cities.” Appl. Geogr. 45 (Dec): 58–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.07.020.
Clark, T. F. 2016. “DBP control in an expanding regional water supply system.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 108 (7): 43–47. https://doi.org/10.5942/jawwa.2016.108.0119.
Dong, C., G. Schoups, and N. Giesen. 2013. “Scenario development for water resources planning and management: A review.” Technol. Forecasting Social Change 80 (4): 749–761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.015.
Donkor, E. A., T. A. Mazzuchi, R. Soyer, and J. A. Roberson. 2014. “Urban water demand forecasting: Review of methods and models.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 140 (2): 146–159. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000314.
Erfani, T., K. Pachos, and J. J. Harou. 2018. “Real-options water supply planning: Multistage scenario trees for adaptive and flexible capacity expansion under probabilistic climate change uncertainty.” Water Resour. Res. 54 (7): 5069–5087. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021803.
Fowler, H. J., C. G. Kilsby, and P. E. O’Connell. 2003. “Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system.” Water Resour. Res. 39 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001778.
Hashimoto, T., J. R. Stedinger, and D. P. Loucks. 1982. “Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation.” Water Resour. Res. 18 (1): 14–20. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00014.
Herman, J. D., H. B. Zeff, P. M. Reed, and G. W. Characklis. 2014. “Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty.” Water Resour. Res. 50 (10): 7692–7713. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015338.
House-Peters, L. A., and H. Chang. 2011. “Urban water demand modeling: Review of concepts, methods, and organizing principles.” Water Resour. Res. 47 (5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009624.
Hsu, N.-S., W.-C. Cheng, W.-M. Cheng, C.-C. Wei, and W. W.-G. Yeh. 2008. “Optimization and capacity expansion of a water distribution system.” Adv. Water Resour. 31 (5): 776–786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.01.009.
Jenkins, M. W., J. R. Lund, R. E. Howitt, A. J. Draper, S. M. Msangi, S. K. Tanaka, R. S. Ritzema, and G. F. Marques. 2004. “Optimization of California’s water supply system: Results and insights.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 130 (4): 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:4(271).
Matrosov, E. S., I. Huskova, J. R. Kasprzyk, J. J. Harou, C. Lambert, and P. M. Reed. 2015. “Many-objective optimization and visual analytics reveal key trade-offs for London’s water supply.” J. Hydrol. 531 (Dec): 1040–1053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.003.
Mortazavi-Naeini, M., G. Kuczera, and L. Cui. 2014. “Application of multiobjective optimization to scheduling capacity expansion of urban water resource systems.” Water Resour. Res. 50 (6): 4624–4642. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014569.
Padula, S., J. J. Harou, L. G. Papageorgiou, Y. Ji, M. Ahmad, and N. Hepworth. 2013. “Least economic cost regional water supply planning–optimising infrastructure investments and demand management for South East England’s 17.6 million people.” Water Resour. Manage. 27 (15): 5017–5044. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0437-6.
Panagopoulos, G. P. 2014. “Assessing the impacts of socio-economic and hydrological factors on urban water demand: A multivariate statistical approach.” J. Hydrol. 518 (Oct): 42–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.036.
Panaou, T., T. Asefa, and M. H. Nachabe. 2018. “Keeping us honest: Examining climate states and transition probabilities of precipitation projections in General Circulation Models.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 144 (4): 04018008. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000910.
Porse, E., K. B. Mika, E. Litvak, K. F. Manago, K. Naik, M. Glickfeld, T. S. Hogue, M. Gold, D. E. Pataki, and S. Pincetl. 2017. “Systems analysis and optimization of local water supplies in Los Angeles.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 143 (9): 04017049. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000803.
Ray, P., and C. Brown. 2015. Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design: The decision tree framework. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
Reed, P. M., D. Hadka, J. D. Herman, J. R. Kasprzyk, and J. B. Kollat. 2013. “Evolutionary multiobjective optimization in water resources: The past, present, and future.” Adv. Water Resour. 51 (Jan): 438–456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.01.005.
Roach, T., Z. Kapelan, and R. Ledbetter. 2018. “Resilience-based performance metrics for water resources management under uncertainty.” Adv. Water Resour. 116 (Jun): 18–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.03.016.
Tian, D., J. C. Christopher, and T. Asefa. 2016. “Improving short-term urban water demand forecasts with reforecast analog ensembles.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 142 (6): 04016008. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000632.
Tiwari, M. K., and J. Adamowski. 2013. “Urban water demand forecasting and uncertainty assessment using ensemble wavelet-bootstrapneural network models.” Water Resour. Res. 49 (10): 6486–6507. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20517.
Trindade, B. C., P. M. Reed, and G. W. Characklis. 2019. “Deeply uncertain pathways: Integrated multi-city regional water supply infrastructure investment and portfolio management.” Adv. Water Resour. 134 (Dec): 103442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103442.
Vieira, J., and M. Cunha. 2016. “Systemic approach for the capacity expansion of multisource water-supply systems under uncertainty.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 9 (142): 04016034. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000668.
Wang, C.-H., and J. M. Blackmore. 2009. “Resilience concepts for water resource systems.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 135 (6): 528–536. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(528).
Wang, H., T. Asefa, D. Bracciano, A. Adams, and N. Wanakule. 2019. “Proactive water shortage mitigation integrating system optimization and input uncertainty.” J. Hydrol. 571 (Apr): 711–722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.071.
Wang, H., T. Asefa, N. Wanakule, and A. Adams. 2020. “Application of decision-support tools for seasonal water supply management that incorporates system uncertainties and operational constraints.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 146 (6). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001225.
Watson, A. A., and J. R. Kasprzyk. 2017. “Incorporating deeply uncertain factors into the many objective search process.” Environ. Modell. Software 89 (Mar): 159–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.12.001.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 22, 2021
Accepted: Jul 2, 2022
Published online: Sep 9, 2022
Published in print: Nov 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Feb 9, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Qiong Zhang, Maurio Arias, Zhongming Lu, Weiwei Mo, Shima Mohebbi, Integrative Analysis and Modeling of Interdependent Systems, Journal of Environmental Engineering, 10.1061/JOEEDU.EEENG-7227, 149, 4, (2023).
- Rui Bao, Jiahui Wu, Tao Li, Hongbing Deng, Assessment and Influencing Factors of Water Supply Capacity and Water Resource Utilization Efficiency in Southwest China, Water, 10.3390/w15010144, 15, 1, (144), (2022).