“Oops” Simulation: Cost–Benefits Trade-Off Analysis of Reliable Planning for Construction Activities
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 142, Issue 8
Abstract
“The Oops Game” explores the question, how much should be invested in planning? The simulation offers the opportunity to reduce the risk of an “Oops” by collecting more information or to go ahead and make the choice with the information at hand. There are two extreme strategies. Nothing is invested in planning in the so-called Guts-ball approach, but this increases the likelihood that an “Oops” will occur and thus increases the cost to complete the project. The second strategy is to invest in planning before attempting to build. This will increase the cost of planning upfront, but may reduce the risk and cost of an “Oops” in building. In reality, the cost and value of planning depends on the complexity level of the project, the amount of uncertainty that we need to deal with it, and the cost of an “Oops.” We used computer simulation to show how the value of planning is sensitive to those factors. The results showed that the project with the reliable planning strategy had a 35% higher productivity and a cost-benefit ratio of . The contribution to the body of knowledge of “The Oops Game” lies in providing a simple and effective means to show the value of planning to construction practitioners and students. The findings from this research fill in the gap of knowledge in quantifying the value of plan under different circumstance for construction projects.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Alzraiee, H., Zayed, T., and Moselhi, O. (2014). “Dynamic planning of construction activities using hybrid simulation.” Autom. Constr., 49(1), 176–192.
Austin, S., Baldwin, A., Li, B., and Waskett, P. (1999). “Analytical design planning technique: a model of the detailed building design process.” Des. Stud., 20(3), 279–296.
Ballard, G. (1994). “The last planner.” Proc., Conf. of the Northern California Construction Institute, Lean Construction Institute, Monterey, CA, 1–8.
Ballard, G. (2000). “The last planner system of production control.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, U.K.
Ballard, G., Casten, M., and Howell, G. (1996). “PARC: A case study.” Proc., IGLC-4, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, U.K.
Ballard, G., and Howell, G. (1998). “Shielding production: Essential step in production control.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 124(1), 11–17.
Blumstein, A., and Cassidy, R. G. (1973). “Benefit-cost analysis of family planning.” Socio-Econ. Plann. Sci., 7(2), 151–160.
Bock, S., and Hoberg, K. (2007). “Detailed layout planning for irregularly-shaped machines with transportation path design.” Eur. J. Oper. Res., 177(2), 693–718.
Brada, J. C., King, A. E., and Schlagenhauf, D. E. (1983). “The benefits of long-term developmental planning: An estimate.” World Dev., 11(11), 971–979.
Camillus, J. C. (1975). “Evaluating the benefits of formal planning systems.” Long Range Plann., 8(3), 33–40.
Dekker, S. (2011). Drift into failure: From hunting broken components to understanding complex systems, Ashgate, Surrey, U.K.
George, R., Bell, L. C., and Back, W. E. (2008). “Critical activities in the front-end planning process.” J. Manage. Eng., 66–74.
Gruber, M. (2007). “Uncovering the value of planning in new venture creation: A process and contingency perspective.” J. Bus. Venturing, 22(6), 782–807.
Howell, G. A., Ballard, G., and Hall, J. (2001). “Capacity utilization and wait time: A primer for construction.” Proc., 9th Int. Group of Lean Construction Conf., National Univ. of Singapore, Singapore.
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979). “Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.” Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.
Kim, Y., and Jang, J. (2005). “Case study: An application of last planner to heavy civil construction in Korea.” Proc., IGLC-13, Univ. of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia, 405–411.
Lehrer, J. (2009). How we decide, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Boston.
MATLAB 7.9 [Computer software]. Mathworks, Natick, MA.
Ogunde, A., and Fagbenle, O. (2013). “Assessment of effectiveness of planning techniques and tools on construction projects in Lagos state, Nigeria.” Proc., AEI 2013: Building Solutions for Architectural Engineering, State College, PA, 397–408.
Tommelein, I. D., Riley, D. R., and Howell, G. A. (1999). “Parade game: Impact of work flow variability on trade performance.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 304–310.
U.S. Army. (1998). “Risk management: Lives in leaders’ hands.”, Public Affairs, U.S. Army, Washington, DC.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 142 • Issue 8 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 9, 2015
Accepted: Dec 4, 2015
Published online: Feb 26, 2016
Discussion open until: Jul 26, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.