Impact of Climate Change on Multihazard Performance of River-Crossing Bridges: Risk, Resilience, and Adaptation
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 35, Issue 1
Abstract
Enhanced flood hazard due to global warming and climate change imposes an additional threat to safety and serviceability of river crossing bridges. This study proposes an integrated approach to assess how climate change might affect bridge performance under multihazard conditions involving floods and earthquakes. The approach is used for an existing bridge spanning over the San Joaquin River, California. The multihazard impact considering climate change is evaluated in terms of risk and resilience of the bridge. Future flood projections under climate change are obtained from general circulation model simulations in conjunction with a macroscale hydrological model. Enhanced intensities of future design floods are observed to cause higher expected scour at around bridge piers. This resulted in significant rise in risk () and drop in resilience () of the bridge, when compared to no climate change scenario, at a specific seismic hazard level. To reduce possible consequences, ripraps are applied around piers as a climate change adaptation measure. Size of the riprap is determined based on the maximum expected design flood flow at the bridge site over the projection period. The applied adaptive measure is observed to be cost-effective through a cost-benefit analysis performed over the remaining bridge service life.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB) in India through Grant No. ECR/2017/000849. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
References
AASHTO. 2014. AASHTO LRFD bridge design specifications. 7th ed. Washington, DC: AASHTO.
Banerjee, S., B. S. Vishwanath, and D. K. Devendiran. 2019. “Multihazard resilience of highway bridges and bridge networks: A review.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 15 (12): 1694–1714. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1648526.
Barnett, T. P., et al. 2008. “Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States.” Science 319 (5866): 1080–1083. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152538.
BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation). 2020. “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate and hydrology projections.” Accessed May 31, 2020. http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/pub/dcp/archive/cmip5/hydro.
Bouwer, L. M. 2019. “Observed and projected impacts from extreme weather events: Implications for loss and damage.” In Loss and damage from climate change, 63–82. New York: Springer.
Brekke, L., A. Wood, and T. Pruitt. 2014. Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 hydrology projections: Release of hydrology projections, comparison with preceding information, and summary of user needs. Boulder, CO: National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Briaud, J. L., and B. Hunt. 2006. “Bridge scour and the structural engineer.” Structure, December 1, 2006.
Bureau of Reclamation. 2013. Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections: Release of downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, comparison with preceding information, and summary of user needs. Denver: US Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center.
Cayan, D. R., E. P. Maurer, M. D. Dettinger, M. Tyree, and K. Hayhoe. 2008. “Climate change scenarios for the California region.” Supplement, Clim. Change 87 (1): 21–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6.
Coin News. 2019. “US inflation calculator.” Accessed May 31, 2019. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/.
Das, T., E. P. Maurer, D. W. Pierce, M. D. Dettinger, and D. R. Cayan. 2013. “Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates.” J. Hydrol. 501 (Sep): 101–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.042.
Dong, Y., and D. M. Frangopol. 2016. “Probabilistic time-dependent multihazard life-cycle assessment and resilience of bridges considering climate change.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil. 30 (5): 04016034. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000883.
FEMA. 2013. HAZUS-MH 2.1 technical manual: Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology. Washington, DC: FEMA.
FHWA (Federal Highway Administration). 1995. Recording and coding guide for the structure inventory and appraisal of the nation’s bridges. Washington, DC: FEMA.
Flint, M. M., O. Fringer, S. L. Billington, D. Freyberg, and N. S. Diffenbaugh. 2017. “Historical analysis of hydraulic bridge collapses in the continental United States.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 23 (3): 04017005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000354.
Griggs, G. B., K. Patsch, and L. E. Savoy. 2005. Living with the changing California coast. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Hamlet, A. F., et al. 2010. Final project report for the Columbia basin climate change scenarios project. Seattle, WA: Climate Impacts Group.
Hamlet, A. F., M. M. Elsner, G. S. Mauger, S. Y. Lee, I. Tohver, and R. A. Norheim. 2013. “An overview of the Columbia basin climate change scenarios project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results.” Atmos. Ocean 51 (4): 392–415. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555.
Hamlet, A. F., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999. “Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia river basin 1” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 35 (6): 1597–1623. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04240.x.
Hirabayashi, Y., R. Mahendran, S. Koirala, L. Konoshima, D. Yamazaki, S. Watanabe, H. Kim, and S. Kanae. 2013. “Global flood risk under climate change.” Nat. Clim. Change 3 (9): 816. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. “The physical science basis.” In Proc., Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 996. Geneva: IPCC.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Khandel, O., and M. Soliman. 2019. “Integrated framework for quantifying the effect of climate change on the risk of bridge failure due to floods and flood-induced scour.” J. Bridge Eng. 24 (9): 04019090. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0001473.
Khelifa, A., L. A. Garrow, M. J. Higgins, and M. D. Meyer. 2013. “Impacts of climate change on scour-vulnerable bridges: Assessment based on HYRISK.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 19 (2): 138–146. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000109.
Klemeš, V. 1986. “Operational testing of hydrological simulation models.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 31 (1): 13–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668609491024.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Y. Hirabayashi, and S. Kanae. 2010. “River floods in the changing climate—Observations and projections.” Water Resour. Manage. 24 (11): 2633–2646. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9571-6.
Lagasse, P. F., L. W. Zevenbergen, J. D. Schall, and P. E. Clopper. 2001. Bridge scour and stream instability countermeasures. Washington, DC: Federal Highway Administration.
Liang, X., D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood, and S. J. Burges. 1994. “A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 99 (7): 14415–14428. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00483.
Maurer, E. P., A. W. Wood, J. C. Adam, D. P. Lettenmaier, and B. Nijssen. 2002. “A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States.” J. Clim. 15 (22): 3237–3251. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C3237:ALTHBD%3E2.0.CO;2.
Meehl, G. A., et al. 2007. “Global climate projections.” In Proc., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, 747–845. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Meyer, M., M. Flood, J. Keller, J. Lennon, G. McVoy, C. Dorney, K. Leonard, R. Hyman, and J. Smith. 2014. Strategic issues facing transportation, volume 2: Climate change, extreme weather events, and the highway system: Practitioner’s guide and research report. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.
Mondal, A., and P. P. Mujumdar. 2016. “Detection of change in flood return levels under global warming.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 21 (8): 04016021. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001326.
Mondoro, A., D. M. Frangopol, and L. Liu. 2018. “Bridge adaptation and management under climate change uncertainties: A review.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 19 (1): 04017023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000270.
NCHRP (National Cooperative Highway Research Program). 2014. Strategic issues facing transportation, volume 2: Climate change, extreme weather events, and the highway system. Washington, DC: NCHRP.
PEER (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center). 2019. “Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center NGA database.” Accessed February 13, 2019. https://ngawest2.berkeley.edu/.
Pierce, D. W., et al. 2013. “The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California.” J. Clim. 26 (16): 5879–5896. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00766.1.
Ranger, N., et al. 2011. “An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai.” Clim. Change 104 (1): 139–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2.
Sanford, T., P. C. Frumhoff, A. Luers, and J. Gulledge. 2014. “The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world.” Nat. Clim. Change 4 (3): 164. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2148.
Stein, S. M., G. K. Young, R. E. Trent, and D. R. Pearson. 1999. “Prioritizing scour vulnerable bridges using risk.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 5 (3): 95–101. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1999)5:3(95).
Suaznabar, O., C. Huang, Z. Xie, J. Shen, K. Kerenyi, B. Bergendahl, and R. Kilgore. 2017. Hydraulic performance of shallow foundations for the support of vertical-wall bridge abutments. Washington, DC: Federal Highway Administration.
USBR (US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation). 2016. Climate change adaptation strategy: 2016 progress report. Washington, DC: USBR.
USGS. 2013. “National water information system.” Accessed March 24, 2013. http://nwiswaterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peaki.
USGS. 2019a. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C. Washington, DC: USGS.
USGS. 2019b. “Unified hazard tool.” Accessed May 31, 2019. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/interactive/.
Venkittaraman, A., and S. Banerjee. 2014. “Enhancing resilience of highway bridges through seismic retrofit.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 43 (8): 1173–1191. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.2392.
Vishwanath, B. S., and S. Benerjee. 2019. “Life-cycle resilience of aging bridges under earthquakes.” J. Bridge Eng. 24 (11): 04019106. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0001491.
Wilbanks, T. J., P. R. Lankao, M. Bao, F. G. H. Berkhout, S. Cairncross, J. P. Ceron, M. Kapshe, R. Muir-Wood, and R. Zapata-Marti. 2007. “Industry, settlement and society.” In Proc., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 357–390. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. “Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs.” Clim. Change 62 (1–3): 189–216. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e.
Wright, L., P. Chinowsky, K. Strzepek, R. Jones, R. Streeter, J. B. Smith, J. M. Mayotte, A. Powell, L. Jantarasami, and W. Perkins. 2012. “Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of US bridges.” Mitigation Adapt. Strategies Global Change 17 (8): 939–955. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9354-2.
Yang, D. Y., and D. M. Frangopol. 2019. “Physics-based assessment of climate change impact on long-term regional bridge scour risk using hydrologic modeling: Application to Lehigh river watershed.” J. Bridge Eng. 24 (11): 04019099. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0001462.
Yilmaz, T., S. Banerjee, and P. A. Johnson. 2016. “Performance of two real-life California bridges under regional natural hazards.” J. Bridge Eng. 21 (3): 04015063. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000827.
Zhou, Y., S. Banerjee, and M. Shinozuka. 2010. “Socio-economic effect of seismic retrofit of bridges for highway transportation networks: A pilot study.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 6 (1–2): 145–157. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470802663862.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 35 • Issue 1 • February 2021
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 27, 2019
Accepted: Jul 27, 2020
Published online: Oct 25, 2020
Published in print: Feb 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Mar 25, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.