Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Mapping: Current Issues and Future Directions
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13, Issue 7
Abstract
This paper presents key issues associated with uncertainty in flood inundation mapping. Currently flood inundation extent is represented as a deterministic map without consideration to the inherent uncertainties associated with various uncertain variables (precipitation, stream flow, topographic representation, modeling parameters and techniques, and geospatial operations) that are used to produce it. Therefore, it is unknown how the uncertainties associated with topographic representation, flow prediction, hydraulic model, and inundation mapping techniques are transferred to the flood inundation map. In addition, the propagation of these individual uncertainties and how they affect the overall uncertainty in the final flood inundation map is not well understood. By using a sample data set for Strouds Creek, N.C., this paper highlights key uncertainties associated with flood inundation mapping. In addition, the idea of a probabilistic flood inundation map is articulated, and an integrated framework approach that will connect data, models, and uncertainty analysis techniques in producing probabilistic flood inundation maps is presented.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writers acknowledge inputs from Shane Walker (graduate student at the University of Texas at Austin), David Maidment (Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Teas at Austin) and Ken Logsdon (Dewberry) in producing the manuscript. The writers would also like to thank three anonymous reviewers for comments which led to improvement of the manuscript.
References
Anderson, D. J. (2000). “GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for flood delineation at highway river crossings.” Masters’ thesis, Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex.
Aronica, G., Hankin, B., and Beven, K. (1998). “Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data.” Adv. Water Resour., 22(4), 349–365.
Ayyub Bilal, M., and Klir, G. J. (2006). Uncertainty modeling and analysis in engineering and the sciences, Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, Fla.
Bates, P. D., and De Roo, A. P. J. (2000). “A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation.” J. Hydrol., 236(1–2), 54–77.
Bates, P. D., Marks, K. J., and Horritt, M. S. (2003). “Optimal use of high-resolution topographic data in flood inundation models.” Hydrolog. Process., 17(3), 537–557.
Beven, K. J., and Binley, A. (1992). “The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction.” Hydrolog. Process., 6, 279–298.
Brasington, J., and Richards, K. (1998). “Interactions between model predictions, parameters and DTM scales for top model.” Comput. Geosci., 24(4), 299–314.
Carpenter, T. M., and Georgakakos, K. P. (2004). “Impacts of parametric and radar rainfall uncertainty on the ensemble streamflow simulations of a distributed hydrologic model.” J. Hydrol., 298(1–4), 202–221.
Chaplot, V. (2005). “Impact of DEM mesh size and soil map scale on SWAT runoff, sediment, and NO3-N loads predictions.” J. Hydrol., 312(1–4), 207–222.
Chaubey, I., Cotter, A. S., Costello, T. A., and Soerens, T. S. (2005). “Effect of DEM data resolution on SWAT output uncertainty.” Hydrolog. Process., 19(3), 621–628.
Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. W. (1988). Applied hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Cohn, T. A., Lane, W. L., and Baier, W. G. (1997). “An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available.” Water Resour. Res., 33(9), 2089–2096.
Cohn, T. A., Lane, W. L., and Stedinger, J. R. (2001). “Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates.” Water Resour. Res., 37(6), 1695–1706.
Colby, J. D., Mulcahy, K. A., and Wang, Y. (2000). “Modeling flooding extent from Hurricane Floyd in the coastal plains of North Carolina.” Environ. Haz., 2(4), 157–168.
Conrad, D., Stout, M., and McNitt, B. (1998). “Higher ground: A report on voluntary property buyouts in the nation’s floodplains.” Rep. to National Wildlife Federation, Vienna, Va.
Costa, J. E., Spicer, K. R., Cheng, R. T., Haeni, F. P., Melcher, N. B., Thurman, E. M., Plant, W. J., and Keller, W. C. (2000). “Measuring stream discharge by non-contact methods: A proof-of-concept experiment.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(4), 553–556.
Creutin, J. D., Muste, M., Bradley, A. A., Kim, S. C., and Kruger, A. (2003). “River gauging using PIV techniques: A proof of concept experiment on the Iowa River.” J. Hydrol., 277(3–4), 182–194.
Crosetto, M., and Tarantola, S. (2001). “Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: Tools for GIS-based model implementation.” Int. J. Geograph. Inf. Sci., 15(4), 415–437.
Crosetto, M., Tarantola, S., and Saltelli, A. (2000). “Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in spatial modelling based on GIS.” Agric., Ecosyst. Environ., 81(1), 71–79.
Crowder, D. W., and Diplas, P. (2000). “Using two-dimensional hydrodynamic models at the scales of ecological importance.” J. Hydrol., 230(3–4), 172–191.
Cukier, R. I., Fortuin, C. M., Shuler, K. E., Petschek, A. G., and Schaibly, J. H. (1973). “Study of the sensitivity of coupled reaction systems to uncertainties in rate coefficients—I: Theory.” J. Chem. Phys., 59, 3873–3878.
Dierckx, P. (1993). Curve and surface fitting with splines, Clarendon, New York.
EMSI. (2007). “Watershed modeling system 8.0 overview.” Environmental Modeling System, Inc., ⟨http://www.ems-i.com/WMS/WMS_Overview/wms_overview.html⟩ (June 2007).
England, J. F., Jr., Salas, J. D., and Jarrett, R. D. (2003). “Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution.” Water Resour. Res., 39(9), 1243.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (1992). “Floodplain management in the United States: An assessment report—Vol. 2: Full report.” Rep. to Federal Interagency Floodplain Management Task Force, prepared by L. R. Johnston Associates.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2001). “Modernizing FEMAs flood hazard mapping program—A progress report.” Rep. ⟨http://www.fema.gov/pdf/fhm/mm_fy01.pdf⟩.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2003). “Guidelines and specifications for flood hazard mapping partners (Appendix C: Guidance for riverine flooding analysis and mapping).” ⟨http://www.fema.gov/pdf/fhm/frm_gsac.pdf⟩.
Finnegan, D. C., Lichvar, R. W., and Ericsson, M. P. (2004). “Airborne laser altimetry (LIDAR) support of floodplain inundation modeling of arid southwest stream systems to predict WoUS boundaries.” Proc., American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, Abstract No. H33D-0504.
Fread, D. L. (1982). “A dynamic model of stage-discharge relations affected by changing discharge.” NOAA Technical Memorandum No. NWS HYDRO-16, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Md.
Freeman, G. E., Copeland, R. R., and Cowan, M. A. (1996). “Uncertainty in stage-discharge relationships.” Stochastic Hydraulics, ’96 Proc. 7th IAHR on Stochastic Hydraulics, IAHR, 601–608.
French, J. R., and Clifford, N. J. (2000). “Hydrodynamic modeling as a basis for explaining estuarine environmental dynamics: Some computational and methodological issues.” Hydrolog. Process., 14(11–12), 2089–2108.
Fulton, R. A., Breidenbach, J. P., Seo, D. J., Miller, D. A., and O’Bannon, T. (1998). “The WSR-88D rainfall algorithm.” Weather Forecast., 13(2), 377–395.
Gao, J. (1995). “Comparison of sampling schemes in constructing DTMs from topographic maps.” Int. Training Centre J., 1, 18–22.
Gebremichael, M., and Krajewski, W. F. (2004). “Assessment of the statistical characterization of small-scale rainfall variability from radar: Analysis of TRMM ground validation data sets.” J. Appl. Meteorol., 43(8), 1180–1199.
Griffis, V. W., and Stedinger, J. R. (2007). “Evolution of flood frequency analysis with Bulletin 17.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 12(3), 283–297.
Gueudet, P., Wells, G., Maidment, D., and Neuenschwander, A. (2004). “Influence of the post-spacing density of the LIDAR-derived DEM on flood modeling.” Proc., AWRA GIS and Water Resources III Conf., Nashville, Tenn.
Hancock, G. R. (2005). “The use of digital elevation models in the identification and characterization of catchments over different grid scales.” Hydrolog. Process., 19(9), 1727–1749.
Hessel, R. (2005). “Effects of grid cell size and time step length on simulation results of the Limburg soil erosion model (LISEM).” Hydrolog. Process., 19(15), 3037–3049.
Horritt, M. S., and Bates, P. D. (2002). “Evaluation of 1D and 2D numerical models for predicting river flood inundation.” J. Hydrol., 268(1–4), 87–99.
Houze, R. A., Brodzik, S., Schumacher, C., Yuter, S. E., and Williams, C. R. (2004). “Uncertainties in oceanic radar rain maps at Kwajalein and implications for satellite validation.” J. Appl. Meteorol., 43(8), 1114–1132.
Hsu, M., Fu, J., and Liu, W. (2003). “Flood routing with real-time stage correction method for flash flood forecasting in the Tanshui River, Taiwan.” J. Hydrol., 283(1–4), 267–280.
Huang, M., and Liang, X. (2005). “On the assessment of the impact of reducing parameters and identification of parameter uncertainties for a hydrologic model with applications to ungauged basins.” J. Hydrol., 320(1–2), 37–61.
Hydraulic Engineering Center (HEC). (2002). HEC, river analysis system: Hydraulic reference manual, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Davis, Calif.
Interagency Advisory Committee on Waster Data (IACWD). (1982). “Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency.” Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, Office of Water Data Coordination, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Isaaks, E. H., and Srivastava, M. R. (1989). Applied geostatistics, Oxford University Press, New York.
Jones, J. L. (2004). “Mapping a flood…before it happens.” U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2004-3060, ⟨http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2004/3060/⟩.
Jones, J. L., and Fulford, J. M. (2002). “Near real-time flood modeling and mapping for the internet.” Proc., 2nd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conf., Las Vegas Subcommittee on Hydrology of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Information.
Knebl, M. R., Yang, Z.-L., Hutchison, K., and Maidment, D. R. (2005). “Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: A case study for the San Antonio River Basin summer 2002 storm event.” J. Environ. Manage., 75(4), 325–336.
Krajewski, W. F., and Smith, J. A. (2002). “Radar hydrology: Rainfall estimation.” Adv. Water Resour., 25(8–12), 1387–1394.
Leavesley, G. H. (1997). “The modular modeling system (MMS)—A modeling framework for multidisciplinary research and operational applications.” G. E. Freeman and A. G. Frazier and, eds., Proc., Scientific Assessment and Strategy Team Workshop on Hydrology, Ecology, and Hydraulics, J. A. Kelmelis, ed., Science for Floodplain Management into the 21st Century, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 27–31.
Lee, D. T., and Schachter, B. J. (1980). “Two algorithms for constructing a Delaunay Triangulation.” Int. J. Comput. Inf. Sci., 9, 219–242.
Maidment, D. (2002). Arc Hydro-GIS for water resources, ESRI Press, Redlands, Calif.
Marks, K., and Bates, P. (2000). “Integration of high-resolution topographic data with floodplain flow models.” Hydrolog. Process., 14(11–12), 2109–2122.
Matgen, P., Schumann, G., Henry, J.-B., Hoffmann, L., and Pfister, L. (2007). “Integration of SAR-derived river inundation areas, high-precision topographic data and a river flow model toward near real-time flood management.” Int. J. Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 9(3), 247–263.
McCollum, J. R., Krajewski, W. F., Ferraro, R. R., and Ba, M. B. (2002). “Evaluation of biases of satellite rainfall estimation algorithms over the continental United States.” J. Appl. Meteorol., 41(11), 1065–1080.
Melcher, N. B., et al. (2002). “River discharge measurements by using helicopter-mounted radar.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(22), 2084 .
Merwade, V. M., Maidment, D. R., and Goff, J. A. (2006). “Anisotropic considerations while interpolating river channel bathymetry.” J. Hydrol., 331(3–4), 731–741.
Merwade, V. M., Maidment, D. R., and Hodges, B. R. (2005).“Geospatial representation of river channels.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 10(3), 243–251.
Morlock, S. E. (1996). “Evaluation of acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements of river discharge.” Water-Resources Investigation Rep. No. 95-4218, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C.
Morris, M. D. (1991). “Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments.” Technometrics, 33, 161–174.
Muste, M., Xiong, Z., Schöne, J., and Li, Z. (2004). “Flow diagnostic in hydraulic modeling using image velocimetry.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 130(3), 175–185.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2006). “Flood forecast mapping for Tar River basin in North Carolina.” ⟨http://www.csc.noaa.gov/ncflood/⟩.
National Weather Service (NWS). (2002). “About stage III data.” ⟨http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/dmip/stageiii_info.htm as of 1/12/2007⟩.
Noman, N. S., Nelson, E. J., and Zundel, A. K. (2001). “Review of automated flood plain delineation from digital terrain models.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 127(6), 394–402.
Oksanen, J., and Sarjakoski, T. (2005). “Error propagation of DEM-based surface derivatives.” Comput. Geosci., 31(8), 1015–1027.
Olivera, F., and Maidment, D. (1998) “GIS for hydrologic data development for design of highway drainage facilities.” Transportation Research Record. 1625, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 131–138.
Omer, C. R., Nelson, E. J., and Zundel, A. K. (2003) “Impact of varied data resolution on hydraulic modeling and flood plain delineation.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 39(2), 467–475.
Overton, I. C. (2005). “Modelling floodplain inundation on a regulated river: integrating GIS, remote sensing and hydrological models.” River Research and Applications, 21(9), 991–1001.
Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., Horritt, M., and Blazkova, S. (2005). “Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations.” J. Hydrol., 302(1–4), 46–69.
Parodi, U., and Ferraris, L. (2004) “Influence of stage discharge relationships on the annual maximum discharge statistics.” Natural Hazards, 31, 603–611.
Philip, G. M., and Watson, D. F. (1982) “A precise method for determining contoured surfaces.” Australian Petroleum Exploration Assoc. J., 22, 205–212.
Pielke, R. A., Jr., Downton, M. W., and Barnard Miller, J. Z. (2002). Flood damage in the United States, 1926–2000: A reanalysis of national weather service estimates, UCAR, Boulder, Colo.
Pope, B. F., Tasker, G. D., and Robbins, J. C. (2001). “Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural basins of North Carolina—Revised.” U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Rep. No. 01-4207, USGS.
Raber, G. T., Hodgson, M., Jenson, J., Dorman, J., Davis, B., and Thompson, G. (2004). “A sensitivity analysis using varied nominal posting density lidar data for hydraulic modeling and flood zone delineation.” Proc., ASPRS 2004 Annual Conf., Denver.
Reed, S., Johnson, D., and Sweeney, T. (2002). “Application and national geographic information system database to support two-year flood and threshold runoff estimates.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 7(3), 209–219.
Ries, K. G., III, and Crouse, M. Y. (2002). “The National Flood Frequency Program, Version 3: A computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites.” U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Rep. No. 02-4168, USGS.
Robayo, O., Whiteaker, T., and Maidment, D. (2004). “Converting a NEXRAD map to a floodplain map.” Proc., AWRA GIS and Water Resources III Conf., Nashville, Tenn.
Saltelli, A., Chan, K., and Scott, M., eds. (2000). Sensitivity analysis, Wiley, New York.
Sanders, R., Shaw, F., MacKay, H., Galy, H., and Foote, M. (2005). “National flood modelling for insurance purposes: Using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe.” Hydrology Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 449–456.
Sauer, V. B., Thomas, W. O., Jr., Stricker, V. A., and Wilson, K. V. (1983). “Flood characteristics of urban watersheds in the United States.” U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2207, USGS.
Schmidt, A. R. (2002). “Analysis of stage-discharge relations for open-channel flows and their associated uncertainties.” Ph.D. thesis, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Ill.
Simpson, M. R. (2001). “Discharge measurements using a broad-band acoustic Doppler current profiler.” U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Rep. No. 01-1, ⟨http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/ofr0101⟩.
Singh, V. P. (1997). “Effect of spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and watershed characteristics on streamflow hydrograph.” Hydrolog. Process., 11, 1649–1669.
Smemoe, C. M., Nelson, E. J., and Zundel, A. K. (2004). “Risk analysis using spatial data in flood damage reduction studies.” Proc., American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI), ASCE/EWRI, Salt Lake City.
Smemoe, C. M., Nelson, E. J., Zundel, A. K., and Woodruff Miller, A. (2007) “Demonstrating floodplain uncertainty using flood probability maps.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 43(2), 359–371.
Soil Conservation Service (SCS). (1992). “Computer program for project formulation: Hydrology.” Technical Release 20 [Draft revision], Washington, D.C.
Spear, R. C., and Hornberger, G. M. (1980). “Eutrophication in Peel Inlet. II: Identification of critical uncertainties via generalized sensitivity analysis.” Water Res. 14, 43–49.
Tarboton, D. G. (1997). “A new method for the determination of flow directions and contributing areas in grid digital elevation models.” Water Resour. Res., 33(2), 309–319.
Tate, E. C., Olivera, F., and Maidment, D. R. (2002). “Creating a terrain model for floodplain mapping.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 7(2), 100–108.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). (2000). Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS technical reference manual, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, Calif.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). (2005). HEC-GeoRAS: GIS tools for support of HEC-RAS using ArcGIS. User’s manual, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, Calif.
Valeo, C., and Moin, S. M. A. (2000). “Grid-resolution effects on a model for integrating urban and rural areas.” Hydrolog. Process., 14(14), 2505–2525.
Vazquez, R. F., Feyen, L., Feyen, J., and Refsgaard, J. C. (2002). “Effect of grid size on effective parameters and model performance of the MIKE-SHE code.” Hydrolog. Process., 16(2), 355–372.
Vieux, B. E., Cui, Z., and Gaur, A. (2004). “Evaluation of a physics-based distributed hydrologic model for flood forecasting.” J. Hydrol., 298(1–4), 155–177.
Vivoni, E. R., Ivanov, V. Y., Bras, R. L., and Entekhabi, D. (2005). “On the effects of triangulated terrain resolution on distributed hydrologic model response.” Hydrolog. Process., 19(11), 2101–2122.
Wang, Y., and Zheng, T. (2005). “Comparison of digital elevation models and understanding of their impact on the flood extent mapping on a coastal floodplain of North Carolina.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 6(1), 34–40.
Warren, S. D., Hohmann, M. G., Auerswald, K., and Mitasova, H. (2004). “An evaluation of methods to determine slope using digital elevation data.” Catena, 58, 215–233.
Watershed Concepts. (2005). “Software.” ⟨http://www.watershedconcepts.com/software/⟩ (Nov. 17, 2005).
Werner, M. J. F. (2001). “Impact of grid size in GIS based flood extent mapping using a 1D flow model.” Phys. Chem. Earth, Part B, 26(7–8), 517–522.
Werner, M. J. F. (2004). “A comparison of flood extent modelling approaches through constraining uncertainties on gauge data.” Hydrology Earth Syst. Sci., 8(6), 1141–1152.
Wilby, R. L. (2005). “Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment.” Hydrolog. Process., 19(16), 3201–3219.
Willems, P., Christiaens, K., Vaes, G., Popa, D., Timbe, L., Berlamont, J., and Feyen, J. (2001). “Methodology for river flood modelling by the quasi two-dimensional approach.” Bridging the gap: Meeting the world’s water and environmental resources challenges, D. Phelps and G. Sehlke, eds., Proc., World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, ASCE, New York.
Wolock, D. M., and McCabe, G. J. (2000). “Differences in topographic characteristics computed from 100- and resolution digital elevation model data.” Hydrolog. Process., 14(6), 987–1002.
Yilmaz, M., Usul, N., and Akyurek, A. (2004). “Modeling the propagation of DEM uncertainty in flood inundation.” Proc., 24th Annual ESRI International User Conf., San Diego.
Yilmaz, M., Usul, N., and Akyurek, A. (2005). “Modeling the propagation of DEM uncertainty on flood inundation depths.” Proc., 25th Annual ESRI International User Conf., San Diego.
Young, C. B., Bradley, A. A., Krajewski, W. F., Kruger, A., and Morrissey, M. L. (2000). “Evaluating NEXRAD multisensor precipitation estimates for operational hydrologic forecasting.” J. Hydrometeorol., 1(3), 241–254.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13 • Issue 7 • July 2008
Pages: 608 - 620
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 9, 2007
Accepted: Sep 4, 2007
Published online: Jul 1, 2008
Published in print: Jul 2008
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.