Uncertainty Analysis of Interdependencies in Dynamic Infrastructure Recovery: Applications in Risk-Based Decision Making
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 15, Issue 4
Abstract
The development of preparedness strategies for natural and malevolent man-made hazards and approaches with which to compare such investments is fraught with uncertainty. The dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM) quantifies the inoperability that propagates through interdependent sectors following a disruptive event and then diminishes with time. This approach has been shown to quantify the efficacy of preparedness strategies for interconnected sectors of the economy. Work presented in this paper strengthens the DIIM with a multiobjective approach—the uncertainty DIIM—that evaluates the inherent uncertainty in the parameters of interdependency and its impact on projected economic loss calculated using the DIIM. Preparedness strategies can then be compared based on projected economic loss and on their sensitivity to changes in the interdependent nature of infrastructure sectors. Additionally, key sector analyses are discussed, where sectors are ranked according to their sensitivity to changes in interdependent relationships. Such enumeration of key sectors allows decision makers to focus on certain sensitive infrastructure sectors for the development of preparedness strategies. The models developed in this paper are illustrated with numerical examples.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to thank professor Joost R. Santos and Professor James H. Lambert of the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems and Dr. Ed Hall of the UNSPECIFIEDResearch Computing Support Group, all from the University of Virginia, for their valuable comments and assistance during the development of the ideas described in this paper. They also thank the reviewers whose comments contributed greatly to their work.
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 15 • Issue 4 • December 2009
Pages: 394 - 405
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Feb 28, 2008
Accepted: Apr 7, 2009
Published online: Nov 13, 2009
Published in print: Dec 2009
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