Modeling Postearthquake Fire Ignitions Using Generalized Linear (Mixed) Models
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 15, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper presents a rigorous approach to statistical modeling of postearthquake fire ignitions and to data collection for such modeling and applies it to late 20th century California. Generalized linear and generalized linear mixed models are used for this application for the first time. The approach recognizes that ignition counts are discrete, examines many possible covariates, and uses a small unit of study to ensure homogeneity in variable values for each area unit. Two data sets were developed to explore the effect of missing ignition data, each with a different assumption about the missing data. For one data set, the recommended model includes instrumental intensity; percentage of land area that is commercial, industrial, or transportation; total building area; percentage of building area that is unreinforced masonry; and people per square kilometer. The other includes the same, except area of high-intensity residential development replaces total building area, and median year built over all housing units is also included. The models should be useful in estimating the number and locations of postearthquake ignitions in future earthquakes.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research under NSF Award No. NSFEEC-9701471.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 15 • Issue 4 • December 2009
Pages: 351 - 360
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 30, 2007
Accepted: May 19, 2009
Published online: Nov 13, 2009
Published in print: Dec 2009
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