Phantom System Models for Emergent Multiscale Systems
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 13, Issue 2
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writer would like to thank first and foremost my colleague Barry Horowitz who has stimulated my ideas about the PSM during our daily creative lunchtime walk around the grounds of the University of Virginia, discussing, among other topics, emergent and unprecedented multiscale systems of systems. The constructive comments and suggestions offered by my friend Andy Sage on an earlier draft of this paper are most appreciated. The contributions made by my colleague Kenneth Crowther in streamlining the logical development of PSM as it relates to the theory of scenario structuring and hierarchical holographic modeling have markedly clarified the current version. The writer is also grateful to his other colleagues Jim Lambert and Joost Santos, and my Ph.D. students Matt Henry, Kash Barker, and William Yan for their constructive comments and suggestions. The writer very much appreciates the expert technical editorial work of Grace Zisk, as well as the helpful administrative assistance provided by Erika Evans, manager of the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation, under two grants to the University of Virginia Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems: (1) NSF 0301553, Input–Output Risk Model of Critical Infrastructure Systems; and (2) NSF 0301553, Risk-Based Methodological Framework for Scenario Tracking and Intelligence Collection and Analysis for Terrorism. This work was also produced in part with support from the Institute for Information Infrastructure Protection (I3P) research program. The I3P is managed by Dartmouth College, and supported under Award No. 2003-TK-TX-0003 from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate. Points of view in this document are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the Science and Technology Directorate, the I3P, or Dartmouth College.
References
Arquilla, J., and Ronfeldt, D. (2001). Networks and netwars, RAND, Santa Monica, Calif.
Bertalanffy, L. (1976). General system theory: Foundations, development, applications, Rev. Ed., George Braziller, New York.
Blauberg, I. V., Sadovsky, V. N., and Yudin, E. G. (1977). Systems theory: Philosophical and methodological problems, Progress, New York.
Boulding, K. E. (1953). The organizational revolution, Harper and Row, New York.
Buckley, W., ed. (1968). Modern systems research for the behavioral scientist: A sourcebook, Aldine, Chicago.
Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). (2005). National planning scenarios, version 20.1, DHS, Office of the National Security Council, Washington, D.C.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2006). Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology for hurricanes: HAZUS-MH technical manual, Dept. of Homeland Security, FEMA, Washington, D.C.
Gordon, W. J. J. (1968). Synectics: The development of creative capacity, Collier Books, New York.
Grant, P. M., Starr, C., and Overbye, T. J. (2006). “A power grid for the hydrogen economy.” Sci. Am., July, 76–83.
Haimes, Y. Y. (1977). Hierarchical analyses of water resources systems: Modeling and optimization of large-scale systems, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Haimes, Y. Y. (1981). Risk benefit analysis in water resources planning and management, Plenum, New York.
Haimes, Y. Y. (1991). “Total risk management.” Risk Anal., 11(2), 169–171.
Haimes, Y. Y. (2004). Risk modeling, assessment, and management, Wiley, Hoboken, N.J.
Haimes, Y. Y. (2006). “On the definition of vulnerabilites.” Risk Anal., 26(2), 293–296.
Haimes, Y. Y., and Horowitz B. M. (2004). “Adaptive two-player hierarchical holographic two-player game for counterterrorism intelligence analysis.” J. Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 1(3), ⟨http://www.bepress.com/jhsem/vol1/iss3/302⟩.
Haimes, Y. Y., Kaplan S., and Lambert J. H. (2002). “Risk filtering, ranking, and management.”
Hall, A. D., III. (1989). Metasystems methodology, Pergamon, New York.
Hobson, K. (2006). “Science across the borders.” U.S. News and World Rep.—Money and Business Section, ⟨http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061022/30lander.htm⟩.
Horowitz, B. M. (2007). “Self evaluating agile large-scale systems (SEALS).” Complexity, submitted.
Kaplan, S., and Garrick, B. J. (1981). “On the quantitative definition of risk.” Risk Anal., 1(1), 11–27.
Kaplan, S., Haimes, Y. Y., and Garrick, B. J. (2001). “Fitting hierarchical holographic modeling into the theory of scenario structuring and a resulting refinement of the quantitative definition of risk.” Risk Anal., 21(5), 807–815.
Lamanna, C. (1959). “The most poisonous poison.” Science, 130, 763–765.
Leontief, W. W. (1951). The structure of the American economy, 1919–1939, 2nd Ed., Oxford University Press, New York.
Leontief, W. W. (1966). Input-output economics, Oxford University Press, New York.
Li, W., and Xu, L. C. (2004). “The impact of privatization and competition in the telecommunications sector around the world.” J. Law Econom., 47(2), 395–430.
Lowrance, W. W. (1976). Of acceptable risk: Science and the determination of safety, Kaufmann, Los Altos, Calif.
National Center on Education and the Economy (NCEE). (2007). “Tough choices or tough times.” Rep. of the New Commission on the Skills of the American Workforce, Jossey-Bass, Hoboken, N.J.
National Research Council (NRC). (2002). “Making the nation safer.” The role of science and technology in countering terrorism, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
Porter, M. E. (1998). The competitive advantage of nations: With a new introduction, The Free Press, New York.
Porter, M. E. (2003). “The economic performance of regions.” Reg. Stud., 37(6–7), 549–578.
President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP). (1997). “Critical foundations: Protecting America’s infrastructures.” Rep. of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection, Washington, D.C.
Sage, A. P. (1977). Methodology for large scale systems, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Sage, A. P. (1992). Systems engineering, Wiley, New York.
Sage, A. P. (1995). Systems management for information technology and software engineering, Wiley, New York.
Sage, A. P., and Cuppan, C. D. (2001). “On the systems engineering and management of systems of systems and federations of systems.” Information, Knowledge, Systems Management, 2(4), 325–345.
Sage, A. P., and Rouse, W. B., eds. (1999). Handbook on systems engineering and management, Wiley, New York.
Slovic, P. (2000). The perception of risk, Earthscan, Sterling, Va.
Wiener, N. (1948). Cybernetics, or control and communication in the animal and the machine, The Technology Press, Cambridge, Mass., and Wiley, New York.
White, G. F., and Haas, J. E. (1975). Assessment of research on natural hazards, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Zigler, B. P. (1984). Multifaceted modeling and discrete event simulation, Academic, New York.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Published online: Jun 1, 2007
Published in print: Jun 2007
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.