Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. II: Case Studies
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 11, Issue 2
Abstract
The paper discusses case studies of the inoperability input-output model (IIM) for modeling impacts of willful attacks on interdependent sectors. The IIM is a model for assessing sector vulnerabilities using the inoperability and economic loss impact metrics. The case studies focus on high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) attack scenarios. HEMP is an intense electromagnetic blast induced from high-elevation nuclear explosions, potentially causing damage to electronic and electrical systems. Parametric and uncertainty analyses are conducted for assessing (1) intensity of initial disruptions, (2) sector recovery characteristics, (3) economic loss reduction policies for critical sectors, and (4) regional scope of an attack. Sectors susceptible to a HEMP attack have been identified, including electric power, electronic equipment, and workforce. Trade-off analyses are performed to analyze the efficacy of resource allocation strategies associated with recovery. Recommendations from this paper include developing cost-benefit-risk balanced solutions for managing and expediting recovery time from potential terrorist attacks.
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Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack (the EMP Commission) through the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for providing partial support for this study. We appreciate the support and input received from Jim Scouras of the staff of the EMP Commission. We are grateful for the valuable inputs contributed by Mike Frankel, Ira Kohlberg, Rob Mahoney, Walter Scott, and Paul Spraggs during our regular progress meetings, which helped us define the scope and direction for the study. We appreciate the contributions of Dr. Stan Kaplan, Dr. Irwin Pikus, and Dr. Lester Fink at the University of Virginia. We also highly appreciate the editorial assistance of Grace Zisk and the tireless care and support that we received from Della Dirickson, manager of the University of Virginia Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems. The National Science Foundation, under a grant to the University of Virginia Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, provided partial support for this study (NSF 0301553: Input-Output Risk Model of Critical Infrastructure Systems, May 2003–January 2006).
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 11 • Issue 2 • June 2005
Pages: 80 - 92
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: May 11, 2004
Accepted: Nov 19, 2004
Published online: Jun 1, 2005
Published in print: Jun 2005
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