Extreme Event Scenarios for Planning of Infrastructure Projects
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 8, Issue 2
Abstract
In project planning, several design concepts are considered to examine the potential to lower the lifecycle costs of the structure without sacrificing significant performance. Various natures of unusual and extreme events should be considered, and the nature and frequencies of such events may not yet be known. In addition, the details of design alternatives in early feasibility stages may not yet be specified. The identification of multiple stakeholders (e.g., local, regional, and national interests) may not be complete. A cost-benefit analysis would require complete knowledge of design alternatives, event frequencies and impacts, and stakeholders. A process is developed in this work to explore the costs and performance of preliminary design concepts for infrastructure projects that are vulnerable to several extreme events that would have an impact to multiple stakeholders. An example with inland navigation lock walls subjected to barge impacts and earthquake loads is provided. Complementary performance metrics that are applied include repair cost, time to recover, and cost to industry. Several magnitudes and frequencies of event scenarios are characterized, and some relevant features of a software tool developed for preliminary design evaluation of navigation lock walls are described.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Ang, A. H., and Tang, W. H. (1984). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design: Decision, risk, and reliability, Wiley, New York.
Beim, G. K., and Hobbs, B. F.(1997). “Event tree analysis of lock closure risks.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 123(3), 169–178.
Chang, S. E., and Shinozuka, M.(1996). “Life-cycle cost analysis with natural hazard risk.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2(3), 118–126.
Diewald, W. (1989). “Risk analysis in public works facilities planning, design, and construction.” Proc., Risk Analysis and Management of Natural and Man-Made Hazards, ASCE, New York, 331–340.
Ellingwood, B. R. (1995). “Event combination analysis for design and rehabilitation of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers navigation structures,” Contract Rep. ITL-95-2, U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, Miss.
Gibson, J. E. (1991). How to do a systems analysis, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va.
Glosten Associates, Inc. (1995). “Winfield lock and dam upper approach guardwall: Barge impact loads.” Rep. for the USACE Huntington District prepared by INCA Engineers, Inc., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Huntington, W.Va.
Green, R. A., and Hall, W. J. (1997). “A review (and comparison) of DSHA and PSHA.” Proc., Natural Disaster Reduction, ASCE, New York, 125–126.
Haimes, Y. Y.(1991). “Total risk management.” Risk Anal., 11(2), 168–171.
Heaney, J. P., Peterka, J., and Wright, L. T.(2000). “Research needs for engineering aspects of natural disasters.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 6(1), 4–14.
Institute for Water Resources. (1990). “Guidelines for risk and uncertainty analysis in water resources planning—Vol. II.” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Belvoir, Va.
Institute for Water Resources. (1992). “Guidelines for risk and uncertainty analysis in water resources planning—Vol. I.” IWR Rep. 92-R-1. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Belvoir, Va.
Kaplan, S., and Garrick, B. J.(1981). “On the quantitative definition of risk.” Risk Anal., 1(1), 11–26.
Lambert, J. H. (2001). “Selection of extreme scenarios and protection alternatives supportive of cost/benefit/risk analyses.” Proc., Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources IX, Y. Y. Haimes et al., eds., ASCE, New York, 138–142.
Lindbergh, C., Harlan, M. R., and Lafrenz, J. L. (1997). “Structural evaluation of existing buildings for seismic and wind loads.” Proc., Natural Disaster Reduction, ASCE, New York, 317–318.
Loucks, D. P., Stedinger, J. R., and Haith, D. A. (1981). Water resource systems planning and analysis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
Lowrance, W. W. (1976). Of acceptable risk: Science and determination of safety, William Kaufmann, Los Altos, Calif.
McCartney, B. L., George, J., Lee, B. K., Lindgren, M., and Neilson, F. (1998). “Inland navigation: Locks, dams, and channels.” Manual and Rep. No. 94, ASCE, Reston, Va.
Moser, D. A. (1996). “The use of risk analysis by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.” Water Resources Update, 103, 27–34.
Moser, D. A., and Stakhiv, E. Z. (1989). “Risk-cost evaluation of coastal protection projects with sea level rise and climate change.” Proc., Risk Analysis and Management of Natural and Man-Made Hazards, ASCE, New York, 222–239.
Patev, R. C. (2000). “Probabilistic barge impact analysis of the upper guide and guard walls at Marmet locks and dam.” Rep. ERDC/ITL TR-00-4, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Information Technology Laboratory, Vicksburg, Miss.
Patterson, F. G., Jr. (1999). “Systems engineering life cycles: Life cycles for research, development, test, and evaluation; acquisition; and planning and marketing.” Handbook of systems engineering and management, A. P. Sage and W. B. Rouse, eds., Wiley, New York.
Pomerol, J., and Barba-Romero, S. (2000). Multicriterion decision in management: Principles and practice, Kluwer Academic, Boston.
Sage, A. P., and Rouse, W. B. (1999). “An introduction to systems engineering and systems management.” Handbook of systems engineering and management, A. P. Sage and W. B. Rouse, eds., Wiley, New York, 1–58.
Taylor, D. B., Hofseth, K. D., Shabman, L. A., and Moser, D. A. (1992). “Moving toward a probability-based risk analysis of the benefits and costs of major rehabilitation projects.” Proc., Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources V, ASCE, New York, 148–173.
Tsang, J. L. (2001). “Multiple-criteria decision making in the design of innovative lock walls.” MS thesis. Dept. of Systems and Information Engineering, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va.
Tsang, J. L., Lambert, J. H., and Patev, R. C. (2002). “Multi-criteria decision making in the design of innovative lock walls: Phase 2; implementation of methodologies.” Rep. ERDC/ITL TR-01-X, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Information Technology Laboratory, Vicksburg, Miss., in press.
USACE. (1996). “Planning—Risk-based analysis for evaluation of hydrology/hydraulics, geotechnical stability, and economics in flood damage reduction studies.” Rep. ER 1105-5-101, CECW-PD, Washington, D.C.
USACE. (1999). “Engineering and design—Response spectra and seismic analysis for concrete hydraulic structures.” Rep. EM 1110-2-6050, CECW-ET, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Technical Manual, Washington, D.C.
Walker, W. W. (1998). “Toward a risk-based assessment of shallow-draft navigation investments.” Proc., Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources VIII, ASCE, Reston, Va., 33–43.
Yoe, C. (1989). “The construction cost/risk cost trade-off in public works projects: Navigation channel width determination.” Proc., Risk Analysis and Management of Natural and Man-Made Hazards, ASCE, New York, 315–340.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 8 • Issue 2 • June 2002
Pages: 42 - 48
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 4, 2001
Accepted: Jan 28, 2002
Published online: May 15, 2002
Published in print: Jun 2002
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.