Probabilistic Estimation of Water Conservation Effectiveness
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 133, Issue 1
Abstract
An analytical method is derived to describe the distribution of water quantity saved among customers within a water-use sector who adopt a water conservation action. Analytical results tend toward lognormal distributions with long tails, quantifying a smaller subset of customers that show potential to achieve large savings. Example effectiveness distributions are shown for seven long-term conservation actions potentially implemented by urban, domestic water users in Amman, Jordan. Monte Carlo simulations verify the analytical derivations. The probabilistic outputs contrast with common methods that estimate conservation action effectiveness as a product of typical (average) characteristics for disaggregated customer groups. Implications to size water conservation programs to meet conservation objectives and target customers to adopt conservation actions are discussed.
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Acknowledgments
The writer is supported by a National Science Foundation graduate research fellowship. The writer also thanks Jay Lund and three anonymous reviewers for their comments.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 133 • Issue 1 • January 2007
Pages: 39 - 49
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Jun 22, 2005
Accepted: Oct 19, 2005
Published online: Jan 1, 2007
Published in print: Jan 2007
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