Critical Behavioral Assumptions in Evacuation Time Estimate Analysis for Private Vehicles: Examples from Hurricane Research and Planning
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 133, Issue 1
Abstract
The computation of evacuation time estimates (ETEs) for communities threatened by hurricanes requires analysts to develop sophisticated models of evacuation flows and significant progress has been made in this area over the past 25 years. However, ETEs also require accurate assumptions about the behavior of the risk area population, but social scientists’ research on population behavior has been poorly integrated with transportation engineers’ development of evacuation models. To address this disjuncture, the present article lists the principal behavioral variables affecting hurricane ETEs, describes the available empirical data relevant to ETE models, and provides recommendations for future analytic methods and research.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Nos. NSFCMS 0219155 and NSFSES 0527699. None of the conclusions expressed here necessarily reflects views other than those of the writers. They wish to thank Tom Cova for comments on an earlier draft.
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 133 • Issue 1 • March 2007
Pages: 18 - 29
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
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Received: Sep 9, 2005
Accepted: Aug 22, 2006
Published online: Mar 1, 2007
Published in print: Mar 2007
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