TECHNICAL PAPERS
Feb 19, 2004

Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning

Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 130, Issue 1

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for using business and organizational scenario-planning techniques for regional strategic transportation-planning purposes. The paper provides a brief history of scenario planning as it emerged from business-strategic planning activities and gives an overview of its goals and limitations. The paper then reviews the context for scenario planning in regional transportation planning as well as precedents of its application in this field. The paper continues with a presentation of a scenario-planning framework for transportation as refined and applied to the Houston metropolitan area. The major findings and lessons from this application are discussed, together with conclusions and observations regarding further potentials and refinements.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

American Planning Association (APA). (1996). Growing smart legislative guidebook: Model statutes for planning and the management of change, Chicago.
American Public Transit Association (APTA), and Olson, R. L. (1996). Mobility for the 21st century: Blueprint for the future, APTA, Washington, D.C.
Cole, S.(2001). “Dare to dream: Bringing futures into planning.” J. Am. Plan. Assoc., 67(4), 372–383.
Connors, S.(1996). “Informing decision makers and identifying niche opportunities for windpower: Use of multiattribute trade off analysis to evaluate non-dispatchable resources.” Energy Policy, 24(2), 165–176.
Cooperative Mobility Program/Regional Strategies for the Sustainable Integrated Transportation Enterprise (CMP-ReS/SITE). (1999). Scenarios for Houston: Mobility in the year 2020, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass.
Dalton, L.(2001). “Thinking about tomorrow: Bringing the future to the forefront of planning.” J. Am. Plan. Assoc., 67(4), 397–401.
Deakin, E., and Harvey, G. (1993). A manual of regional transportation modeling practice for air quality analysis, National Association of Regional Councils, Washington, D.C.
Dimitriou, H. (1992). Urban transport planning: A developmental approach, Routledge, New York.
Global Business Network (GBN). (1991). “Probabilities: Help or hindrance in scenario planning?” The Deeper News, 2(4).
Hammond, A. (1998). Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century, Island, Washington, D.C.
INRO Consultants, Inc. (INRO). (2000). The EMME/2 transportation planning software: Modeling and analysis features, Montréal.
Kahane, A.(1992). “Scenarios for energy: Sustainable world vs. global mercantilism.” Long Range Plan., 25(4), 38–46.
Mehndiratta, S. R., Brand, D., and Parody, T. E. (2000). “How transportation planners and decision makers address risk and uncertainty.” Transportation Research Record 1706, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 46–53.
Mordecai, J. M. (1984). “The scenario analysis process and long-range transportation planning.” Transportation Research Record 988, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 29–33.
Muñoz, A. (1998). “Using scenarios for regional strategic transportation planning: Framework, methodology, and application to Mendoza, Argentina.” MS thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass.
Muñoz, A., and Sussman, J. (1999). “Scenarios and regional strategic planning.” Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
Myers, D.(2001). “Demographic futures as a guide to planning: California’s latinos and the compact city.” J. Am. Plan. Assoc., 67(4), 383–396.
Myers, D., and Kitsuse, A.(2000). “Constructing the future in planning: A survey of theories and tools.” J. Plan. Ed. Res., 19(3), 221–231.
Pearman, A. D.(1988). “Scenario construction for transport planning.” Transp. Plan. Technol., 12(1), 73–85.
Research and Technology Coordinating Committee (RTCC). (1997). The future highway transportation system and society: Suggested research on impacts and interactions, Transportation Research Board, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Rutherford, G. S., and Lattemann, J. (1988). “Use of future scenarios in long-range public transportation planning.” Transportation Research Record 1202, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 32–43.
Rutherford, G. S., and Lattemann, J.(1989). “Avoiding transportation future shock.” Civ. Eng., 59(2), 60–62.
Schoemaker, P. J. H.(1995). “Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking.” MIT Sloan Manage. Rev. Cambridge, 36(2), 25–40.
Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world, Doubleday, New York.
United Kingdom Department for Transport, Local Government, and the Regions (UKDTLR). (2001). Multi criteria analysis: A manual, 〈http://www.dtlr.gov.uk/about/multicriteria/〉
Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation, Wiley, West Sussex, U.K.
Vasconellos, E. A. (2001). Urban transport, environment and equity: The case for developing countries, Earthscan, London, and Sterling, Va.
Wachs, M.(2001). “Forecasting versus envisioning: A new window on the future.” J. Am. Plan. Assoc., 67(4), 367–372.
Wack, P.(1985a). “Scenarios: Shooting the rapids.” Harvard Bus. Rev., 85(6), 139–150.
Wack, P.(1985b). “Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead.” Harvard Bus. Rev., 85(5), 72–89.
Westerman, H. L. (1981). “Planning for options and commitments: An approach to transport planning in uncertainty.” Transportation Research Record 835, Transportation Research Board, Washington,D.C., 15–23.
Wilkinson, L. (1995). “How to build scenarios.” Wired, September, 74–81.
Willson, R.(2001). “Assessing communicative rationality as a transportation planning paradigm.” Transportation, 28(1), 1–31.
Wilson, A. G.(1998). “Land-use/transport interaction models: Past and future.” J. Transp. Econ. Policy, 32(1), 3–26.
Won, J.(1990). “Multicriteria evaluation approaches to urban transportation projects.” Urban Stud., 27(1), 119–138.
Yaro, R. D., and Hiss, T. (1996). A region at risk: The third regional plan for the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut metropolitan area, Regional Plan Association and Island Press, Washington, D.C.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 130Issue 1March 2004
Pages: 2 - 13

History

Received: Apr 24, 2002
Accepted: Nov 20, 2002
Published online: Feb 19, 2004
Published in print: Mar 2004

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Christopher Zegras
PhD Candidate, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Room 10-485, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Joseph Sussman
JR East Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., 1-163, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Christopher Conklin
Senior Project Engineer, VHB/Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, 38 Chauncy St., Suite 200, Boston, MA 02111.

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share