TECHNICAL PAPERS
Sep 1, 1984

Subjective Seismic Safety Assessments

Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 110, Issue 9

Abstract

The safety of ten structures which were damaged in the 1964 Alaska earthquake and two in the 1971 San Fernando one was assessed by considering seven subjective factors not evident in the usual resistance and load measures. The subjective factors were the financial climate, labor conditions, political climate, weather, quality of inspection, experience and organization of the design and construction team and the location of the structure. Verbal statements about the effect of these factors on safety and the susceptibility of each of the dozen structures to these factors were converted into fuzzy sets which were then combined to predict changes in the objective probability of failure. These fuzzy modifications were then organized into subjective seismic safety assessments.

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References

1.
Blockley, D. I., “Predicting the Likelihood of Structural Accidents,” Proc., Inst. of Civil Eng., London, England, Pt. 2, Vol. 59, 1975.
2.
Brown, C. B., “A Fuzzy Safety Measure,” Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 105, No. EM5, 1979.
3.
Brown, C. B., and Yao, J. T. P., “Fuzzy Sets and Structural Engineering,” Journal of the Structural Engineering Division, ASCE, Vol. 109, No. 5, 1983.
4.
Jaynes, E. T., “Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics,” Phys. Rev., Vols. 106 and 108, 1957.
5.
Lightenberg, F. K., “Structural Safety and Catastrophic Events,” Sym. on Concerns of Safety of Structures and Methods of Design, I.A.B.S.E., London, England, 1969.
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Pugsley, A., “The Prediction of Proneness to Structural Accidents,” The Structural Engineer, Vol. 51, No. 6, 1973.
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Anchorage Daily Times, Published by the Anchorage Times Pub. Co., Anchorage, Alaska, 1957–1964.

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Go to Journal of Structural Engineering
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 110Issue 9September 1984
Pages: 2212 - 2233

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Published online: Sep 1, 1984
Published in print: Sep 1984

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Colin B. Brown, M. ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Washington, Seattle, Wash.
Jerald L. Johnson
Civ./Struct. Engr., Facilities Design & Construction Center, U.S. Coast Guard, Seattle, Wash.
James J. Loftus
Struct. Engr., Skilling, Ward, Rogers, Barkshire, Inc., Seattle, Wash.

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