Lessons Learned from Missed Predictions
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
Volume 120, Issue 10
Abstract
This paper focuses on the broad factors critical to the prediction process that govern the quality of predictions of the geotechnical performance of completed structures. After a discussion of these critical factors, a series of examples is described to show performance that deviated from prediction, and the probable causes of the variances are discussed. Minimal effort is made in the paper to improve the technical aspect of the predictive method. The importance of judgment (i.e. the questioning of each aspect of the prediction process) and intuition in development of geotechnical predictions is emphasized. Some kinds of predictions for which success is expected to be limited are identified. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the development of good judgment.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
Volume 120 • Issue 10 • October 1994
Pages: 1653 - 1683
Copyright
Copyright © 1994 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 14, 1994
Published online: Oct 1, 1994
Published in print: Oct 1994
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