Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

A model for rural land‐use allocation in terms of areas allocated to floodwater storage and types of crops grown is presented. The model integrates a dynamic programming formulation with a procedure for recognizing variation in the susceptibility of crops to flood damage with the age of the plant, the possibility of more than one damaging flood in a single growing season, and the possible variation in flood frequency over the growing season. The existence of multiple annual floods is considered by incorporating the expected damage prior to a second flood in a single season into the expected damage calculation for later flood events. Time‐dependent susceptibility to damage and variation in flood frequency is handled through the calculation of the joint probability of a particular stage of growth and flood event in discrete intervals in the growing season.

The problem of optimal turnout area size is analyzed using an approach common to the casual processes theory (CPT) of mathematical sociology and to the systems engineering approach. The three basic CPT models with different dependence structures are expanded for application to the problem. The general structure of the CPT model, which is based on the basic Bernoulli trials process, is presented, indicating the factors affecting the receipt of water by farmers. The phenomenon of human and physical interventions in CPT model 2 is characterized by the Bernoulli distribution of Poisson with different probabilities and with constant successive probabilities ratio. For the latter case, sets of parametric curves are given for three levels of prescribed success. In CPT model 3, a methodology is derived for obtaining a given or more fraction of visits to a particular state in a two‐state Markov chain model (MCM). These methods enable the parameterization of the level of success in obtaining water successfully by a group of farmers given the group size and the degree of intervention process. By prescribing satisfactory levels of the value for this success probability for a given value of the parameter for the degree of cooperation, the optimal group size is obtained. A mean value model is also developed for CPT model 3 with a four‐state MCM indicating a sample parametric application.

The terminal area process models were used to assess the benefit streams of irrigation projects considering the dynamics of water receipts by farmers. The terminal area processes affect the production performance critically, and, for the case of new irrigation projects, by choosing an appropriate benefit‐cost ratio, the corresponding terminal area size n can be determined from the correlation generated between n and the B/C ratio. For irrigation improvement projects such correlation tends to peak at given values of n that can be chosen for further design. The Markov Chain Model (MCM) can be used to assess the nature of the problem in the terminal area and to project the impact of different improvement strategies at the terminal level. The importance of farmer cooperation is demonstrated, and the impact of improving it is demonstrated using typical values of parameters.

A case study of the Horse Creek basin in eastern Wyoming is presented. The study involved calculating the 100‐year frequency and the probable maximum flood at several potential dam locations using a deterministic hydrologic model. The basin drains 1,560 sq mi. The basin has a long‐record gage near the point of interest, but the record is suspect due to irrigation diversion and return flows. Therefore, a flood flow frequency analysis from a hydrologically similar basin was performed. This included peak discharge and high volume‐duration‐frequency derivations. The model allows centering of a storm over a critical portion of the basin, with residual rainfall over the remainder. The study concludes that generation of rare‐event and probable‐maximum‐flood (PMF) design discharges at gaged locations requires careful analysis of the basin and gaged data. This includes review of hydrologically similar basins to allow generation of appropriate statistical parameters for calibration of a deterministic model.

The use of alternative dispute resolution techniques in water resources is demonstrated and experience evaluated against current theory of bargaining and negotiating. Conflicts among environmentalists, developers, and government agencies are well known; they involve planning, constructing, operating, and regulating water resources projects. Two Section 404 permit cases are compared. One in 1980, involves issuing a general permit (GP) for wetland fill on Sanibel Island, Florida. The other, in 1987, involves issuing a GP for hydrocarbon exploration drilling throughout Louisiana and Mississippi. Generally, permits are granted on a case‐by‐case basis, but Corps district engineers may also issue GPs for activities that produce no negative cumulative impacts. In these cases the Corps adopted a revolutionary approach to GPs. Rather than writing the permit in house, the Corps suggested that the parties who conflict over permit applications get together and write the technical specifications for a GP. The Corps told environmentalists, citizens, contractors, industrialists, developers, and representatives of government agencies if they agree to the specifications of a permit within the broad legal constraints of the 404 law, the Corps would confirm the agreement and call it a GP. The price of such an agreement is consensus among the parties normally in conflict over permit applications. In this way the Corps becomes the facilitator of consensus among interested parties by using its authority. The Sanibel permit operated unchallenged for five years, the legal life of such a permit. The Mississippi/Louisiana permit was just issued. These cases both confirm and question some propositions emanating from the fields of negotiating and bargaining.

A statistical method for deriving frequency distribution functions of minima of streamflows is presented. An innovative feature of the proposed methodology is that it does not require the specification of a parent distribution for streamflows, i.e., it is distribution free. The only assumption necessary is that the realizations of streamflows be independent, identically distributed random variables. The validity of this assumption is established with a nonparametric test. The main use of the methodology developed herein is in estimating small quantiles of the flow distribution for water supply planning and low‐flow investigations. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the approach, using a record of annual flows.

The water resource has a wide range of interactions in socio‐economic development processes. Water projects that enhance the attributes of water, or control its negative effects, may stimulate development and have been used as development tools. However, studies of the impact of water availability and investment in water projects on development have produced mixed results, with some studies focusing on the United States detecting no positive correlation between water and patterns of socio‐economic development. These findings may not be universally applicable due to the impact of such variables as extent of direct governmental involvement in development, level of water availability, and prevailing mix of economic activities. Water must be viewed as one of several elements of the growth process with potential to become a limiting factor. Thus, water development cannot be used indiscriminately as a mechanism to stimulate socioeconomic advancement, but appropriate attention must be given as part of a broad assessment of the many interacting factors important to socio‐economic advancement.

This paper presents the solution of the very specific problem of potential hydroenergy production in the North Backa hydrosystem (Yugoslavia). The system was designed for supplying water to agricultural areas by pumping water from the River Tisza on the higher elevation and transferring it to the Rivers Cik and Krivaja. An optimization analysis was done for the purpose of examining the possible hydroenergy production aiming at reducing the costs of pumping.

Some water resource problems and projects in China are outlined in this note. Major water resources problems identified here are 1) Flood damage mitigation: 2) water shortage in the north; and 3) rapid nationwide water quality deterioration. Two ambitious water resources projects, namely, the Three Gorge and South-North Water Transfer Projects, are presently being planned to alleviate the current water problems, and are briefly introduced in this note.