Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming to Support Water Resources Management in the Ziya River Basin, China
Abstract
Introduction
Optimization Model Setup
Rainfall-Runoff Model
Stochastic Dynamic Programming and Decision Support
Curtailment Costs and Water Demands
Input data | Value | Unit | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Industrial water demands | |||
Hai River basin | 6.6 | Berkoff (2003) | |
Area of Hai River basin | 318,866 | Moiwo et al. (2009) | |
Area of Ziya River basin | 52,299 | ||
Area upstream reservoirs | 26,048 | ||
Total water demanda | 1,083 | ||
Downstream demanda | 543 | ||
Upstream demanda | 539 | ||
Industrial water values (curtailment costs) | |||
Urbanb | 6.4 | World Bank (2001) | |
Ruralb | 4.3 | World Bank (2001) | |
Average | 5.3 | ||
Domestic water demands | |||
Hebei Province | 123 | NBSC (2011) | |
Shanxi Province | 106 | NBSC (2011) | |
Total population inside basin | 25.0 | Million people | Bright et al. (2008) |
Upstream population | 5.8 | Million people | Bright et al. (2008) |
Downstream demand | 864 | ||
Upstream demand | 223 | ||
Water demand in Beijingc | 1,000 | Ivanova (2011) | |
Domestic water values (curtailment costs) | |||
Urbanb | 3.2 | World Bank (2001) | |
Ruralb | 3.2 | World Bank (2001) | |
Average | 3.2 | ||
Curtailment cost in Beijingb | 5.5 | Berkoff (2003) | |
SNWTP, middle route | |||
Inflow from Yangtze | 9,500 | Water-Technology.Net (2013) | |
Water demand 100 cities | 7,400 | Wang and Ma (1999) | |
Arable land on the NCP | 179,500 | Liu et al. (2011) | |
Water for NCP users in Ziyad | 1,307 | ||
Ecosystem water demand | |||
Minimum diversione | 100 | ||
Reservoir storage | |||
Dongwushi | 152 | Hai River Water Resources Commission (HWCC) (2012) | |
Gangnan | 1,570 | HWCC (2012) | |
Huangbizhuang | 1,210 | HWCC (2012) | |
Lincheng | 180 | HWCC (2012) | |
Zhuzhuang | 436 | HWCC (2012) | |
Aggregated reservoir storage | 3,548 | ||
Hydropower production | |||
Maximum turbine capacityf | 1,500 | Hebei Research Institute of Investigation and Design of Water Conservancy and Hydro-power (HEBWP) (2013) | |
Electricity priceb | 0.40 | China Daily (2012) | |
Installed turbine capacity | 69 | MW | Aggregateg |
Hydropower benefitsh | 0.036 |
Note: All prices have been converted to 2005 CNY with the consumer price index based on World DataBank (2013).
Agricultural water user | Irrigation schedulea (mm) | Water use effeciencyb | Producer pricesc | Curtailment cost | Aread | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March | April | May | June | July | Total | |||||
Shanxi, corn | 50 | 50 | — | 50 | 50 | 200 | 16 | 1.62 | 2.6 | 2,846 |
Hebei, corne | — | — | — | — | 100 | 100 | 16 | 1.62 | 2.6 | 15,223 |
Hebei, wheate | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | — | 400 | 14 | 1.61 | 2.3 | 15,223 |
Note: All prices are in 2005 CNY, calculated with the consumer price index based on World DataBank (2013).
Results
Rainfall-Runoff Model
Stochastic Dynamic Programming
Simulating Water Allocation
SNWTP status | E | GW | SP SNWTP | SD | SP E | SD | SDP | SD | TC SDP | SD | DP | TC DP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-2008 | — | — | — | — | 74 | 41 | 8.69 | 1.9 | 72 | 8.66 | ||
Pre-2008 | + | — | — | 0.34 | 0.07 | 74 | 41 | 8.72 | 1.9 | 74 | 8.69 | |
Pre-2008 | + | — | — | — | — | 86 | 40 | 17.01 | 4.2 | 89 | 16.40 | |
Pre-2008 | + | + | — | — | 2.57 | 0.72 | 86 | 39 | 17.30 | 4.2 | 89 | 16.61 |
2008–2014 | — | — | — | — | 81 | 39 | 3.62 | 0.5 | 82 | 3.49 | ||
2008–2014a | + | — | 0.60 | 0.25 | 81 | 39 | 3.70 | 0.6 | 82 | 3.53 | ||
2008–2014 | + | — | — | — | — | 87 | 40 | 13.60 | 3.9 | 89 | 13.06 | |
2008–2014 | + | + | — | — | 3.26 | 1.77 | 87 | 40 | 13.78 | 3.9 | 88 | 13.31 |
Post-2014 | −4.5 | 1.3 | — | — | 70 | 41 | 3.06 | 0.5 | 69 | 3.02 | ||
Post-2014a | + | −4.5 | 1.3 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 71 | 41 | 3.09 | 0.5 | 70 | 3.06 | |
Post-2014 | + | −4.7 | 1.2 | — | — | 86 | 40 | 11.12 | 3.7 | 88 | 10.54 | |
Post-2014a | + | + | −4.7 | 1.2 | 2.50 | 0.63 | 86 | 39 | 11.39 | 3.7 | 88 | 10.75 |
Note: The shadow prices (SPs) of water to ecosystems and water from the middle route of the SNWTP are indicated. = benefits from hydropower production; E = minimum ecosystem flow constraint (to Baiyangdian Lake); GW = upper groundwater pumping constraint for the NCP users; post-2014 = SNWTP finished (water from Yangtze to Beijing); pre-2008 = before the SNWTP; TC = total costs; 2008–2014 = SNWTP partly finished (emergency plan); + = constraint active.