Virginia Vehicle-Related Revenue Forecasts

An econometric model is developed to forecast the impacts of alternative future scenarios on the Virginia Division of Motor Vehicle revenue potentials. The model consists of 12 basic components, the major components being population and economy. The tested scenarios relate to possible social, political, economic and demographic future conditions, such as, high price of gasoline, President Carter's energy proposal, persons per household, shifts in population density, the impact of Virginia's participation in the International Truck Registration Plan (IRP), etc. The results, in general, show that gasoline tax and sales and use tax revenues will decline under adverse economic conditions, while registration fee revenues will remain fairly stable under most scenarios.