Policy-Sensitive Model for Mode Split Planning

Urban transportation mode choice is critically dependent upon residential walk times, transit frequency, and out-of-pocket costs. A policy-sensitive model of these attributes accounts for a significant portion of mode choice variation among a set of commuters. A discrimination-classification model was generalized and used to simulate the probability that an individual would choose an abstract mode, k, of policy-sensitive variables, X₁X₂X₃....X_n. The variables were used to define linear discriminant functions and mode choice probability was tested based on individual discriminant functions by a model. Data for calibration were provided by a hand out/mail back travel survey of commuters to the central business district of Vancouver, BC. Presimulation tests showed that transportation system attributes were more important than socioeconomic characteristics in the mode choice decision.