Safety-Risk Transmission Assessment Based on a Factor–Event Network for Metro Construction Projects
Abstract
Metro construction projects are accompanied by numerous unpredictable risk factors and risk events. Traditional safety risk analysis of metro construction projects focuses on risk factors of a particular risk event, such as collapse and falling. However, safety risk factors interact with each other and cause multiple risk events, forming a large transmission network. To reveal the influential relationship between risk factors and events in metro construction projects, the study proposes a safety risk transmission network model based on a factor–event network. First, safety risk factors and risk events were identified based on the reports of metro construction accidents in China. Then, a complex network containing 64 risk factors, 56 risk events nodes, and 533 interacted relationships was built. Finally, critical safety risk factors and risk events were obtained through quantitative assessment of the network topological feature quantity, and crucial transmission paths were identified. It was found that interactions between nodes were quite frequent risk factors of rainfall, geological voids, and illegal operations; and risk events of subsidence or cracks, earth and rock collapse, and death were crucial nodes in the network. These crucial nodes have a large influence on the network and play a pivotal role in risk transmission. Thus, project managers can develop a comprehensive long-term risk management plan based on critical factors and events and take measures to reduce losses by analyzing the risk transmission chains and taking measures to safeguard the neighboring nodes. It is of great significance for accident prevention, control, and improving safety risk management.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Data generated in this study include (1) Accident text sources, (2) metro construction safety risk factors and RE, (3) risk factors—event network diagram, (4) degree ordering of the MCSRCN nodes, (5) ranking of the centrality of MCSRCN, (6) node degree ranking of MCSRCN safety risk factor categories, (7) centrality index of the safety risk factors of MCSRCN, (8) cluster coefficient of the MCSRCN model nodes, (9) clustering coefficient and the ASP of the new generated network, and (10) critical transmission path of safety risk.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2019ZDPY08).
References
Bevilacqua, M., and F. E. Ciarapica. 2018. “Human factor risk management in the process industry: A case study.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 169 (Jan): 149–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.08.013.
Cao, L., and G. Huang. 2017. “Concept design and construction algorithm of rough complex networks.” J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 33 (3): 1441–1451. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-17109.
Chen, F., H. Ji, and Y. Wei. 2019. “Using network theory to explore the risk characteristics of bridge-tunnel hybrid construction.” IEEE Access 7 (Mar): 116038–116046. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2936421.
Chen, Q., Z. Tian, T. Lei, and S. Huang. 2022. “An association rule mining model for evaluating the potential correlation of construction cross operation risk.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-09-2021-0792.
Cheng, L., and D. Cao. 2022. “Evolution model and quantitative assessment of risk network in housing construction accidents.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-05-2022-0446.
Dai, J., K. Huang, Y. Liu, C. Yang, and Z. Wang. 2020. “Global reconstruction of complex network topology via structured compressive sensing.” IEEE Syst. J. 15 (2): 1959–1969. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2020.2997713.
Deng, Y., L. Song, Z. Zhou, and P. Liu. 2017. “An approach for understanding and promoting coal mine safety by exploring coal mine risk network.” Complexity 2017 (Oct): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/7628569.
Derakhshanfar, H., J. J. Ochoa, K. Kirytopoulos, W. Mayer, and V. W. Tam. 2019. “Construction delay risk taxonomy, associations and regional contexts: A systematic review and meta-analysis.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 26 (10): 2364–2388. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2018-0307.
Eskesen, S. D., P. Tengborg, J. Kampmann, and T. H. Veicherts. 2004. “Guidelines for tunnelling risk management: International tunnelling association, working group No. 2.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 19 (3): 217–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2004.01.001.
Feng, Y., H. Wang, C. Chang, and H. Lu. 2022. “Intrinsic correlation with betweenness centrality and distribution of shortest paths.” Mathematics 10 (14): 2521. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10142521.
Gentner, M., I. Heinrich, S. Jäger, and D. Rautenbach. 2018. “Large values of the clustering coefficient.” Discrete Math. 341 (1): 119–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.disc.2017.08.020.
Guo, F., J. Wang, D. Liu, and Y. Song. 2021. “Evolutionary process of promoting construction safety education to avoid construction safety accidents in China.” Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 18 (19): 10392. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph181910392.
Guo, W. Y. 2020. “Research on safety management method of metro construction engineering based on accident network modeling.” Master’s thesis, College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
Guo, W. Y., and Z. P. Zhou. 2020. “Construction and analysis of causal network model for safety accidents in metro construction.” [In Chinese.] China J. Saf. Sci. 30 (1): 155–161. https://doi.org/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.01.024.
Hyun, K. C., S. Min, H. Choi, J. Park, and I. M. Lee. 2015. “Risk analysis using fault-tree analysis (FTA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applicable to shield TBM tunnels.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 49 (Jun): 121–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2015.04.007.
Kim, N. K., N. F. A. Rahim, M. Iranmanesh, and B. Foroughi. 2019. “The role of the safety climate in the successful implementation of safety management systems.” Saf. Sci. 118 (Oct): 48–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2019.05.008.
Li, X., F. Liao, C. Wang, and A. Alashwal. 2022. “Managing safety hazards in metro subway projects under complex environmental conditions.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 8 (1): 04021079. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001212.
Liu, W., T. Zhao, W. Zhou, and J. Tang. 2018. “Safety risk factors of metro tunnel construction in China: An integrated study with EFA and SEM.” Saf. Sci. 105 (Jun): 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.01.009.
Lu, X., K. K. Phoon, C. Xu, X. Du, and C. Tang. 2022. “A Probabilistic risk assessment approach for surface settlement caused by metro tunnel construction using credal network.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 8 (3): 04022040. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001250.
Nie, X. T., J. F. Qin, and P. K. Wang. 2012. “Research on construction risk of large water diversion project based on risk element transfer theory.” [In Chinese.] J. North China Inst. Water Conservancy Hydropower 33 (2): 59–61. https://doi.org/10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2012.02.016.
Niu, M., and M. Shao. 2021. “The asymptotic formula on average weighted path length for scale-free modular network.” Mod. Phys. Lett. B 35 (18): 2150298. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217984921502985.
Pan, W. W., L. R. Jian, and T. Liu. 2020. “Research on the evolution of patent cluster network based on key nodes and critical paths.” [In Chinese.] Technol. Prog. Countermeasures 37 (12): 1–8.
Qian, Q., and P. Lin. 2016. “Safety risk management of underground engineering in China: Progress, challenges and strategies.” J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng. 8 (4): 423–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2016.04.001.
Tang, B., S. Guo, J. Li, and W. Lu. 2022. “Exploring the risk transmission characteristics among unsafe behaviors within urban railway construction accidents.” J. Civ. Eng. Manage. 28 (6): 443–456. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2022.16924.
Tong, R., H. Zhao, N. Zhang, H. Li, X. Wang, and H. Yang. 2020. “Modified accident causation model for highway construction accidents (ACM-HC).” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 28 (9): 2592–2609. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2020-0530.
Wang, L. N. 2009. “Project social evaluation risk element transmission theory and its application.” Master’s thesis, College of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power Univ.
Wang, S., X. Zhao, H. Wang, and M. Li. 2019. “Small-world neural network and its performance for wind power forecasting.” CSEE J. Power Energy Syst. 6 (2): 362–373. https://doi.org/10.17775/CSEEJPES.2019.00070.
Wiegmann, D. A., L. J. Wood, T. N. Cohen, and S. A. Shappell. 2022. “Understanding the ‘Swiss cheese model’ and its application to patient safety.” J. Patient Saf. 18 (2): 119–123. https://doi.org/10.1097/PTS.0000000000000810.
Yan, J. Y., J. Q. Li, Y. Chen, and J. Feng. 2022. “Research on six-fold origami structure configuration based on graph theory method and optimization algorithm.” [In Chinese.] J. Build. Struct. 43 (9): 277–285. https://doi.org/10.14006/j.jzjgxb.2021.0011.
Yang, X., and S. Haugen. 2018. “Implications from major accident causation theories to activity-related risk analysis.” Saf. Sci. 101 (Jan): 121–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.08.020.
Yang Y. J. 2019. “Research on link prediction based on topological similarity in complex networks.” Master’s thesis, School of Information and Communication Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Posts and Telecommunications.
Yue C. X. 2020. “Research on safety management of metro construction dangerous events based on accident causation theory.” Master’s thesis, College of Civil Engineering, Xi’an Univ. of Science and Technology.
Zhang, S., R. Y. Sunindijo, M. Loosemore, S. Wang, Y. Gu, and H. Li. 2020. “Identifying critical factors influencing the safety of Chinese subway construction projects.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 28 (7): 1863–1886. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2020-0525.
Zhao, J., J. Jin, J. Zhu, J. Xu, Q. Hang, Y. Chen, and D. Han. 2016. “Water resources risk assessment model based on the subjective and objective combination weighting methods.” Water Resour. Manage. 30 (9): 3027–3042. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1328-4.
Zhao, X., Y. Feng, D. Yang, and D. Zhao. 2018. “Advanced management in civil engineering projects.” Adv. Civ. Eng. 2018 (Dec): 1–2. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/6717964.
Zhou, C., L. Ding, M. J. Skibniewski, H. Luo, and S. Jiang. 2017. “Characterizing time series of near-miss accidents in metro construction via complex network theory.” Saf. Sci. 98 (Oct): 145–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.06.012.
Zhou, C., L. Y. Ding, M. J. Skibniewski, H. Luo, and H. T. Zhang. 2018a. “Data based complex network modeling and analysis of shield tunneling performance in metro construction.” Adv. Eng. Inform. 38 (Oct): 168–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2018.06.011.
Zhou, Y., C. Li, C. Zhou, and H. Luo. 2018b. “Using Bayesian network for safety risk analysis of diaphragm wall deflection based on field data.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 180 (Dec): 152–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.07.014.
Zhou, Z., J. Irizarry, and Q. Li. 2014. “Using network theory to explore the complexity of subway construction accident network (SCAN) for promoting safety management.” Saf. Sci. 64 (Apr): 127–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2013.11.029.
Zhou, Z., J. Irizarry, and J. Zhou. 2021. “Development of a database exclusively for subway construction accidents and corresponding analyses.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 111 (May): 103852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2021.103852.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 25 • Issue 1 • February 2024
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 1, 2023
Accepted: Sep 13, 2023
Published online: Nov 6, 2023
Published in print: Feb 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Apr 6, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Climates
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Disaster risk management
- Electric power
- Energy engineering
- Environmental engineering
- Infrastructure
- Meteorology
- Occupational safety
- Power transmission
- Practice and Profession
- Precipitation
- Project management
- Public administration
- Public health and safety
- Rail transportation
- Rainfall
- Risk management
- Safety
- Subways
- Transportation engineering
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.