Hurricane Risk of Solar Generation in the United States
Abstract
Projections indicate that solar energy will constitute 55% of total electricity capacity by 2050 in the US. Despite solar energy’s growing importance, few studies have analyzed the risks of countrywide deployments of solar infrastructure due to extreme weather events such as hurricanes. This paper presents a probabilistic framework to evaluate the performance of solar infrastructure to generate energy during hurricanes, which often cause significant outages in the US. Our novel framework integrates recent data-driven models that capture two critical and compounding factors: transient cloud conditions that decrease irradiance and high winds that can cause permanent panel damage. We apply the framework to the 2,694 counties in the 38 central and eastern US states to elucidate the risk landscape of solar generation during hurricanes. Our results show that hurricane impacts are significant, compounding, and strikingly disproportional in the US. We show that in Florida and Louisiana, clouds rapidly reduce solar generation to 32% and 65%, respectively, of their normal levels with a return period of 100 years. Our results also show that damage to panels can induce more acute and permanent energy losses, especially in rarer storms, e.g., causing 80% more losses than hurricane clouds 2 days after landfall for 200-year events.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the financial support by the Tandon School of Engineering at the New York University and the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton University. Additionally, this research was also supported by the NSF Grant 1652448. The authors are grateful for their generous support. We also thank Dr. Dazhi Xi, from Princeton University, for his help in generating the wind fields and Dr. Charalampos Avraam, from New York University, for his insightful comments and revisions to our study’s contributions for power systems resilience.
References
Anderson, K., N. D. Laws, S. Marr, L. Lisell, T. Jimenez, T. Case, X. Li, D. Lohmann, and D. Cutler. 2018. “Quantifying and monetizing renewable energy resiliency.” Sustainability 10 (4): 1–13. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10040933.
Arora, P., and L. Ceferino. 2023. “Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 23 (5): 1665–1683. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023.
ASCE. 2017. Minimum design loads and buildings and other structures. ASCE/SEI 7-16. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Bennett, J. A., C. N. Trevisan, J. F. DeCarolis, C. Ortiz-García, M. Pérez-Lugo, B. T. Etienne, and A. F. Clarens. 2021. “Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico.” Nat. Energy 6 (3): 240–249. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6.
Boyle, L. 2021. “Louisiana’s power grid took a bigger blow from Hurricane Ida than any other storm in history.” Accessed January 1, 2023. https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/hurricane-ida-power-grid-louisiana-b1915145.html.
Burgess, C., S. Detweiler, C. Needham, and F. Oudheusden. 2020. “Solar under storm Part II: Select best practices for resilient roof-mount PV systems with hurricane exposure.” Accessed January 1, 2023. https://rmi.org/solar-under-storm-part-ii-designing-hurricane-resilient-pv-systems/.
Burgess, C., and J. Goodman. 2018. “Solar under storm. Select best practices for resilient ground-mount PV systems with hurricane exposure.” Accessed January 1, 2023. https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Islands_SolarUnderStorm_Report_digitalJune122018.pdf.
Ceferino, L., N. Lin, and D. Xi. 2022. “Stochastic modeling of solar irradiance during hurricanes.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 36 (9): 2681–2693. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02154-2.
Ceferino, L., N. Lin, and D. Xi. 2023. “Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 229 (Jan): 108896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108896.
Ceferino, L., C. Liu, I. Alisjahbana, S. Patel, T. Sun, A. Kiremidjian, and R. Rajagopal. 2020a. “Earthquake resilience of distributed energy resources.” In Proc., 17th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering. Sendai, Japan: International Association for Earthquake Engineering.
Ceferino, L., J. Mitrani-Reiser, A. Kiremidjian, G. Deierlein, and C. Bambarén. 2020b. “Effective plans for hospital system response to earthquake emergencies.” Nat. Commun. 11 (1): 4325. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18072-w.
Chavas, D. R., N. Lin, and K. Emanuel. 2015. “A model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. Part I: Comparison with observed structure.” J. Atmos. Sci. 72 (9): 3647–3662. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0014.1.
Cole, W., D. Greer, and K. Lamb. 2020. “The potential for using local PV to meet critical loads during hurricanes.” Sol. Energy 205 (Jul): 37–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2020.04.094.
Colson, C. M., M. H. Nehrir, and R. W. Gunderson. 2011. “Distributed multi-agent microgrids: A decentralized approach to resilient power system self-healing.” In Proc., ISRCS 2011: 4th Int. Symp. on Resilient Control Systems, 83–88. New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISRCS.2011.6016094.
Department of Energy. 2022. “DOE optimizes structure to implement $62 billion in clean energy investments from bipartisan infrastructure law.” Accessed January 1, 2023. https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-optimizes-structure-implement-62-billion-clean-energy-investments-bipartisan.
Emanuel, K. 2006. “Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model downscaling approach.” J. Clim. 19 (19): 4797–4802. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3908.1.
Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams. 2008. “Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89 (3): 347–368. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347.
Esnard, D. M. A. 2018. “Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: The case of Hurricane Irma.” Nat. Hazards 94 (2): 689–709. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3413-x.
Feng, K., M. Ouyang, and N. Lin. 2022. “Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate.” Nat. Commun. 13 (Jul): 4421. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32018-4.
Guikema, S. D., S. M. Quiring, and S. R. Han. 2010. “Prestorm estimation of hurricane damage to electric power distribution systems.” Risk Anal. 30 (12): 1744–1752. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01510.x.
Han, S. R., S. D. Guikema, and S. M. Quiring. 2009. “Improving the predictive accuracy of hurricane power outage forecasts using generalized additive models.” Risk Anal. 29 (10): 1443–1453. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01280.x.
John, J., B. P. Shukla, P. N. Gajjar, and V. Sathiyamoorthy. 2020. “Study of satellite-derived cloud microphysical parameters for tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean (2010–2013).” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 139 (3–4): 1163–1173. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03047-9.
Knutson, T., et al. 2020. “Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 101 (3): E303–E322. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1.
Landsea, C. W., and J. L. Franklin. 2013. “Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format.” Mon. Weather Rev. 141 (10): 3576–3592. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1.
Laws, N. D., K. Anderson, N. A. DiOrio, X. Li, and J. McLaren. 2018. “Impacts of valuing resilience on cost-optimal PV and storage systems for commercial buildings.” Renewable Energy 127 (Nov): 896–909. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.05.011.
Lin, N., and D. Chavas. 2012. “On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117 (9): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017126.
Liu, Y., and J. Zhong. 2017. “Risk assessment of power systems under extreme weather conditions: A review.” In Proc., 2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech, 22–27. New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/PTC.2017.7981141.
Marsooli, R., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, and K. Feng. 2019. “Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns.” Nat. Commun. 10 (1): 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z.
McAllister, T. P., N. Wang, and B. R. Ellingwood. 2018. “Risk-informed mean recurrence intervals for updated wind maps in ASCE 7-16.” J. Struct. Eng. 144 (5): 06018001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0002011.
Mitsova, D., M. Escaleras, A. Sapat, A. M. Esnard, and A. J. Lamadrid. 2019. “The effects of infrastructure service disruptions and socio-economic vulnerability on hurricane recovery.” Sustainability 11 (2): 516. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020516.
Nateghi, R., S. Guikema, and S. M. Quiring. 2014. “Power outage estimation for tropical cyclones: Improved accuracy with simpler models.” Risk Anal. 34 (6): 1069–1078. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12131.
Ouyang, M., L. Dueñas-Osorio, and X. Min. 2012. “A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems.” Struct. Saf. 36–37 (May–Jul): 23–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.12.004.
Patel, S., L. Ceferino, C. Liu, A. Kiremidjian, and R. Rajagopal. 2021. “The disaster resilience value of shared rooftop solar systems in residential communities.” Earthquake Spectra 37 (4): 2638–2661. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211020020.
Prevatt, D., et al. 2021. StEER: Hurricane Ida joint preliminary virtual reconnaissance report: Early access reconnaissance report (PVRR-EARR). Seattle, WA: DesignSafe-CI. https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-3pc2-7p82 v1.
Sengupta, M., Y. Xie, A. Lopez, A. Habte, G. Maclaurin, and J. Shelby. 2018. “The national solar radiation data base (NSRDB).” Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev. 89 (Jun): 51–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.003.
Shashaani, S., S. D. Guikema, C. Zhai, J. V. Pino, and S. M. Quiring. 2018. “Multi-stage prediction for zero-inflated hurricane induced power outages.” IEEE Access 6 (Oct): 62432–62449. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2877078.
Stone, L., C. Burgess, and J. Locke. 2020. “Solar under the storm for policymakers: Select best practices for resilient photovoltaic systems for small island developing states.” Accessed January 1, 2023. www.rmi.org/insight/solar-under-storm-for-policymakers.
Swiss Re Institute. 2022. Natural catastrophes in 2021: The floodgates are open (Issue 1). Zurich, Switzerland: Swiss Re Institute.
Talebiyan, H., and L. Duenas-Osorio. 2020. “Decentralized decision making for the restoration of interdependent networks.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 6 (2): 04020012. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001035.
Ulm, K. 1990. “Simple method to calculate the confidence interval of a standardized mortality ratio (SMR).” Am. J. Epidemiol. 131 (2): 373–375. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115507.
US Energy Information Administration. 2022. “Annual energy Outlook 2022.” Accessed January 1, 2023. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=16-AEO2022®ion=0-0&cases=ref2022&start=2020&end=2050&f=A&linechart=ref2022-d011222a.4-16-AEO2022&sourcekey=0;inGW.
Vickery, P., and P. Skerlj. 2005. “Hurricane gust factors revisited.” J. Struct. Eng. 131 (5): 825–832. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2005)131:5(825).
Vickery, P. J., D. Wadhera, L. A. Twisdale, and F. M. Lavelle. 2009. “U.S. hurricane wind speed risk and uncertainty.” J. Struct. Eng. 135 (3): 301–320. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2009)135:3(301).
Wang, Y., and V. D. Rosowsky. 2012. “Joint distribution model for prediction of hurricane wind speed and size.” Struct. Saf. 35 (Mar): 40–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.12.001.
Wang, Z., M. O. Román, Q. Sun, A. L. Molthan, L. A. Schultz, and V. L. Kalb. 2018. “Monitoring disaster-related power outages using NASA black marble nighttime light product.” In Proc., ISPRS—Int. Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XLII–3, 1853–1856. Göttingen, Germany: Copernicus Publications. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-1853-2018.
White House. 2022. “President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.” Accessed January 1, 2023. https://www.whitehouse.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/#:∼:text=TheBipartisanInfrastructureLawwilldeliver%2465 billiontohelpinvestmentinbroadbandinfrastructuredeployment.
Winkler, J., L. Dueñas-Osorio, R. Stein, and D. Subramanian. 2010. “Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 95 (4): 323–336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2009.11.002.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 24 • Issue 4 • November 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 22, 2022
Accepted: Apr 10, 2023
Published online: Jun 19, 2023
Published in print: Nov 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Nov 19, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Electric power
- Energy engineering
- Energy sources (by type)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones
- Infrastructure
- Infrastructure vulnerability
- Mathematics
- Natural disasters
- Probability
- Project management
- Renewable energy
- Risk management
- Solar power
- Wind power
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.