Research Article
Jul 1976
Stochastic Considerations in Thunderstorm Modeling
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 102, Issue 7
Abstract
A mesoscale stochastic model of thunderstorm activity is developed to simulate the hourly development of both air mass and squall-line storms. This modeling technique is based on Poisson occuring thunderstorms, Markov cloud formation and movement, and rainfall-producing convective cells, and is intended to provide a more complete theoretical understanding of the thunderstorm process. The rain cells form according to a prescribed probabilistic model within clouds on an hourly basis, with a relatively high likelihood of generation of a new cell in the vicinity of a previous cell. The cells are described by a center magnitude with a Gumbel distribution and an exponential or power law decay formula. The stochastic model is programmed for simulation in a fairly general program that allows many different variables in the thunderstorm process to be either prescribed, or simulated from appropriate probability distributions.
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Published In
Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 102 • Issue 7 • July 1976
Pages: 865 - 879
Copyright
© 1976 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Jul 1976
Published online: Feb 3, 2021
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Authors
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Ross B. Corotis, M.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg. Northwestern Univ. Evanston. Ill.
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.