Research Article
Mar 1972
Bias in Computed Flood Risk
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 98, Issue 3
Abstract
Flood damage computed from flood-frequency curves fitted mathematically to observed annual peak flows or estimated by regression with basin characteristics, is a biased estimator of flood risk. The inaccuracy inherent in any flood-frequency curve increases the annual premium that would have to be charged to break even over a large number of projects. For ungaged sites where the population of annual peaks can be assumed to follow a log-Pearson Type III distribution, the true risk is evaluated by relating it to the standard error of estimate of the regression used to define the flood-frequency curve. In view of this relation between bias and error, the accuracy of all procedures used in evaluating flood frequency should be appraised in terms of standard error so that the proper flood risk can be obtained.
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Information
Published In
Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 98 • Issue 3 • March 1972
Pages: 415 - 427
Copyright
© 1972 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Mar 1972
Published online: Feb 3, 2021
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Authors
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Clayton H. Hardison, F.ASCE
Research Hydraulic Engineer, U.S. Geological Survey, Arlington, Va., USA
Marshall E. Jennings, AM.ASCE
Research Hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Arlington, Va., USA
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.