Research Article
Apr 1970
Risks in Hydrologic Design of Engineering Projects
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 96, Issue 4
Abstract
By using the probability theory it has been shown that for any hydrologic design with a certain return period and expected life of a project there is always a calculated risk of failure involved. For a time invariant hydrologic system this simple risk can be computed. Conversely, if the expected project life and the simple risk are known, the corresponding design return period can be determined. Such a determination of the return period is independent of the type of distribution and the plotting position of the hydrologic data. Furthermore, there are additional risks and uncertainties involved which should be considered in hydrologic design of engineering projects such as those due to limited record of data available, using rainfall records to synthesize runoff information, stochastic nature of the hydrologic system, and the techniques utilized in the mathematical processing of the data.
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Published In
Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 96 • Issue 4 • April 1970
Pages: 959 - 966
Copyright
© 1970 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Apr 1970
Published online: Feb 3, 2021
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Authors
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Ben Chie Yen, AM.ASCE
Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, Ill.
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